How pending elections impact legislation

[Badger]

Update:

Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

But, but...why follow the results of two off-off year gubernatorial elections when so many state house and senate victories by Democrats clearly show that Obama is rapidly rebounding?   

Gosh, I dunno Carl---there's just something about your report that just doesn't seem to fit. Hmmm.,,,

[Badger]

Update:

Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

But, but...why follow the results of two off-off year gubernatorial elections when so many state house and senate victories by Democrats clearly show that Obama is rapidly rebounding?   

Gosh, I dunno Carl---there's just something about your report that just doesn't seem to fit. Hmmm.,,,

Lets see.

In how many special elections have the Democrat candidates done better than in the prior regular election for the office for which the special election was held since Obama has been in office?  Please list.

How many federal special elections have been seriously contested between the D's and R's in that time? Gillibrand's house seat is about it.

My point being you're simultaneously trying to compare apples and oranges, AND making mountains out of molehills. Impressive feat.

I seriously doubt any member of congress is looking to the NJ and VA gubernatorial races as national bellweathers. And if there are any individual exceptions to this rule, they're just being foolish.

[Badger]

Update:

Now a number of understandably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

But, but...why follow the results of two off-off year gubernatorial elections when so many state house and senate victories by Democrats clearly show that Obama is rapidly rebounding?   

Gosh, I dunno Carl---there's just something about your report that just doesn't seem to fit. Hmmm.,,,

Lets see.

In how many special elections have the Democrat candidates done better than in the prior regular election for the office for which the special election was held since Obama has been in office?  Please list.

How many federal special elections have been seriously contested between the D's and R's in that time? Gillibrand's house seat is about it.

My point being you're simultaneously trying to compare apples and oranges, AND making mountains out of molehills. Impressive feat.

I seriously doubt any member of congress is looking to the NJ and VA gubernatorial races as national bellweathers. And if there are any individual exceptions to this rule, they're just being foolish.

Sorry Badger, but you're wrong again.

There have been three special elections for Congress completed since Obama has taken office as President (two more in progress), not the one you asserted.

In all three of the completed cases, the Democrat nominee received a smaller percentage of the vote in the special election in 2009 that the preceding Democrat candidate did in 2008.  The completed races are for California district 32, Illinois district 5 and New York district 20.  The pending races are California district 10 and New York district 23.

Oh, and BTW, Nathan L. Gonzales at Roll Call agrees with me that the politicians are watching the gubernatorial races in Virigina and New Jersey for clues as to what the political environment will be like next year.

Please note what I said about special elections seriously contested by both parties. None but NY-20 fit this role, and I'm not drawing any "national message" off its results.

I'll read the Roll Call article when time before posting further.

[Badger]

Meh. Can only read the first two sentences without registering. With deference to Messre Gonzales, color me skeptical as hell.