Afghan government collapse. (user search)
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  Afghan government collapse. (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will the Afghani people be worse or better off with the US leaving ?
#1
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#2
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 127

Author Topic: Afghan government collapse.  (Read 28740 times)
Crumpets
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« on: July 15, 2021, 06:55:50 AM »
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Crumpets
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2021, 05:58:44 AM »
Dostum is an awful human being, but he's one of the few non-Taliban people to actually run an effective militia in Afghanistan. This seems pretty big.



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Crumpets
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2021, 10:27:12 AM »
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2021, 12:49:01 PM »
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2021, 04:13:54 PM »
Just got an AP news alert that Kandahar has fallen.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2021, 08:28:23 AM »
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2021, 06:21:09 PM »
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2021, 04:51:32 AM »
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2021, 05:19:28 AM »
An unnamed Taliban official is saying they will allow foreigners to leave through the airport and foreigners wishing to remain in Afghanistan will have to register with the new government. Good news if true. Unfortunately, something tells me the same doesn't apply to any local Afghans who also want to leave.

One thing I'm curious about is how relations will be conducted between western states and the Taliban going forward. I assume we'll just work through some friendly country like Qatar or Pakistan and won't have our own embassies in Kabul? How did it work in the 90s, if anyone remembers?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2021, 05:42:01 AM »
Good to know it's not just the US who are being dicks about this.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2021, 05:49:10 AM »
While searching for live coverage, I came across this Afghan news stream that seems to still be operating as usual, although I obviously don't speak Pashto to know for sure. I don't know if it's based in Kabul or somewhere outside of the country, but it might be an interesting feed to check in on today to see the state of independent/private media.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzm6t6mIbTM
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2021, 05:56:48 AM »
Interesting.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2021, 06:47:35 AM »
Quote from: WMS on August 15, 2021, 06:22:48 AM
Quote from: jaichind on August 15, 2021, 06:13:37 AM
Quote from: Crumpets on August 15, 2021, 05:56:48 AM
Interesting.



Its because of

https://www.news18.com/news/world/russia-says-taliban-promised-safety-of-embassy-in-afghanistans-kabul-4088771.html

"Russia Says Taliban Promised Safety of Embassy in Afghanistan's Kabul"

Quote from: WMS on August 14, 2021, 01:38:52 PM
Quote from: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on August 14, 2021, 01:16:20 PM
How many countries will recognize a Taliban-led Afghanistan?
China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.
Yup.

While I think I agree with the rest, I'm not sure about Syria. The bulk of remaining rebel groups in Idlib are very Taliban friendly and will probably recognize the new government. Assad meanwhile does not want to legitimize Sunni Islamist insurgencies. The anti-American/anti-imperialist screw you probably won't be enough to get over that hurdle.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2021, 08:15:19 AM »
For all the comparisons with the fall of Saigon, the issue of "what happened next" always seems to be ignored. I can definitely envision some scenario where 30 years down the road the US has a "productive dialogue" or something with the Taliban to shore up Central Asia against Chinese expansion, and nobody really thinks its weird because the world has just moved on from the 2000s-2010s.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2021, 08:42:00 AM »
We have our first official anti-Taliban insurgency already. That was quick!
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #15 on: August 15, 2021, 10:06:54 AM »
Not strictly on-topic, but people might find this interesting. A map of where Afghan refugees have been settled in the US between 2002-2019.

https://data.greatfallstribune.com/refugee/all/afghanistan/all/
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #16 on: August 15, 2021, 02:57:27 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on August 15, 2021, 02:51:49 PM
I assume one of the first acts of the new Taliban regime is to rename Hamid Karzai International Airport with ex-Prez Hamid Karzai being a old bitter enemy of the Taliban.
What are we thinking, Mullah Omar International Airport?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #17 on: August 15, 2021, 06:06:11 PM »
« Edited: August 15, 2021, 06:23:25 PM by Crumpets »
800 people on one plane! Surprise

For context, a Boeing 747 seats about 600 and has about a 15% larger wingspan (not a perfect analogy, but it gives you an idea).



I think this audio recording is someone in the Air Force relaying the info:
https://m.soundcloud.com/metal57/rch-871
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #18 on: August 15, 2021, 06:34:52 PM »
Can we all just take a second and be thankful that Trump is not on Twitter today to be live-tweeting his reactions and "advice" for all of this?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2021, 06:46:12 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on August 15, 2021, 06:41:14 PM
Quote from: Crumpets on August 15, 2021, 06:06:11 PM
800 people on one plane! Surprise

For context, a Boeing 747 seats about 600 and has about a 15% larger wingspan (not a perfect analogy, but it gives you an idea).



I think this audio recording is someone in the Air Force relaying the info:
https://m.soundcloud.com/metal57/rch-871

Is that real? Do we have any veracity that this is any way an official communication?

I believe the airplane number is identified in the video, but who the hell would be recording this, let along leaking it when it could potentially get into the hands of the "Baddies" in real time, where there still most be a few actionable SAMs floating around from the old dayz, although I believe there is a certain limited life-span when it comes to the Stinger Missiles we gave to the mujahideen back in the days, would have imagined they would no longer be viable max (30) years after we started to dump them in the hands of extremist factions against the former USSR.

This is the account I saw it on. They give their source, but I'm not familiar with them:
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2021, 06:50:47 PM »
Some info on the evacuees. [Thread]
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2021, 11:06:19 AM »
Had a minor heart attack when I saw this tweet. It's not the same person. Wink
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2021, 02:23:48 PM »
I wonder what the "Trump is still in control of the military" conspiracy crowd's thoughts are on the past week.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2021, 06:36:18 AM »
I'm sure the Taliban are just being on their best behavior while they know the whole world is watching and will probably revert to 90s-style governance as soon as the foreign cameras are off. But I guess seeing this is at least a better-case scenario than them just straight up coming into town and beheading everyone so... baby steps? And also maybe a sign that 20 years of US-backed governance didn't have no effect if even the Taliban knows what "normal" is supposed to look like now and it involves things like women news reporters.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2021, 02:25:14 PM »
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