Quinnipic - VA: Northam +10

[Gass3268]

Northam 51%
Gillespie 41%

Source

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well this is a contradiction of all other recent polls in the race. Hmm....

[GlobeSoc]

Doubt it, but it'd be nice

[Tender Branson]

The Republicans are certainly not winning a swing-state race this year.

Trump is way too toxic and VA-Gov. McAuliffe is popular.

The margin might be somewhat smaller in the end, but Northam should win by at least 5% ...

[Gass3268]

New tweet from Larry Sabato:

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[_]

Ok this has to be an outlier

[Gass3268]

Ok this has to be an outlier

If the actual result it Northam +3-5, you are gonna see some ties and some polls like these.

[Deblano]

This poll may be an outlier, but I'm gonna stick an arm out and assume that Northam will win at this rate. And I say this as someone who is highly likely to vote for Gillespie.

The gubernatorial debate tonight might affect things slightly.

[Heisenberg]

Ok this has to be an outlier

I think this is, but Gillespie still ain't winning. Trump is beyond toxic in NOVA, he's radioactive in that area. That alone will sink Gillespie.

[MT Treasurer]

The Republicans are certainly not winning a swing-state race this year.

There is no "swing state race" this year. It's not as if we're talking about Florida, Michigan or Wisconsin here.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Republicans are certainly not winning a swing-state race this year.

Virginia is not a swing state. It is a "Dem Advantage" state like NV, NM, MI, and MN. Republicans can and do win under certain, limited scenarios, but usually the democrat gets at least a narrow win.

[Beet]

Image what this race would be if Trump were actually popular. Gillespie would be running away with it. This is the guy who nearly beat Mark Warner, and became a giant killer. People tend to forget that the only reason McAuliffe barely squeaked by was because Cuccinelli was cast as some religious right social fundamentalist. Gillespie is seen more as a technocratic Rockefeller Republican. At this point, I'll say pure tossup.

[Gass3268]

Image what this race would be if Trump were actually popular. Gillespie would be running away with it. This is the guy who nearly beat Mark Warner, and became a giant killer. People tend to forget that the only reason McAuliffe barely squeaked by was because Cuccinelli was cast as some religious right social fundamentalist. Gillespie is seen more as a technocratic Rockefeller Republican. At this point, I'll say pure tossup.

The government shutdown was the makn reason McAliffe won.

[Devout Centrist]

This looks like it's pretty accurate. As usual, everyone's saying this is an outlier.

[Virginiá]

This looks like it's pretty accurate. As usual, everyone's saying this is an outlier.

Too much credit is given to Gillespie just because he almost won in 2014, a low turnout GOP wave.

[UncleSam]

It really bothers me that Quinnipiac NEVER releases detailed methodology or meaningful cross tabs (% of Dems / Repubs in sample? Agebands? Gender / racial breakdown? Hello?). Jar to take them seriously as a pollster at this point but the fundraising numbers suggest Northam should be able to make a late surge here.

[The Other Castro]

It really bothers me that Quinnipiac NEVER releases detailed methodology or meaningful cross tabs (% of Dems / Repubs in sample? Agebands? Gender / racial breakdown? Hello?). Jar to take them seriously as a pollster at this point but the fundraising numbers suggest Northam should be able to make a late surge here.

They do release Party ID breakdown and methodology. You can get to the page by navigating from their website.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/va/va09192017_demos_V73pwhr.pdf/

[krazen1211]

Junk Poll!

[DrScholl]

This poll certainly has unsettled Atlas. Northam will win and that has been clear for a long time now.

[Keep cool-idge]

Why do we take Quinnipic seriously?
There last poll for 2014 warner vs Gillespie had warner at plus 9
It gets worse there final Virginia poll in 2016 had Hillary leading by 11
Virginia polls are garbage we need a REAL POLLESTER to see what's going on!

[Devout Centrist]

You'd think that after last year, people wouldn't be using past performance to determine a pollster's accuracy.

[OneJ]

You'd think that after last year, people wouldn't be using past performance to determine a pollster's accuracy.

This.

Btw, Northam obviously still has the advantage so still Lean D.

[Person Man]

I think the take home from all the polls this week is that Northam is definitely ahead around the MoE. It would look really bad if the Republicans GAIN a major office in a time like this.