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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Quinnipic - VA: Northam +10
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Author Topic: Quinnipic - VA: Northam +10  (Read 1450 times)
Gass3268
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« on: September 19, 2017, 10:53:38 am »

Northam 51%
Gillespie 41%

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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2017, 10:57:34 am »

Well this is a contradiction of all other recent polls in the race. Hmm....
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2017, 11:01:41 am »

Doubt it, but it'd be nice
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2017, 11:05:33 am »

The Republicans are certainly not winning a swing-state race this year.

Trump is way too toxic and VA-Gov. McAuliffe is popular.

The margin might be somewhat smaller in the end, but Northam should win by at least 5% ...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2017, 11:15:09 am »

New tweet from Larry Sabato:

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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2017, 11:25:12 am »

Ok this has to be an outlier
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2017, 11:33:07 am »


If the actual result it Northam +3-5, you are gonna see some ties and some polls like these.
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Deblano
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2017, 11:54:36 am »

This poll may be an outlier, but I'm gonna stick an arm out and assume that Northam will win at this rate. And I say this as someone who is highly likely to vote for Gillespie.

The gubernatorial debate tonight might affect things slightly.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2017, 11:56:00 am »

I think this is, but Gillespie still ain't winning. Trump is beyond toxic in NOVA, he's radioactive in that area. That alone will sink Gillespie.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2017, 11:57:26 am »

The Republicans are certainly not winning a swing-state race this year.

There is no "swing state race" this year. It's not as if we're talking about Florida, Michigan or Wisconsin here.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2017, 12:14:05 pm »


The Republicans are certainly not winning a swing-state race this year.

Virginia is not a swing state. It is a "Dem Advantage" state like NV, NM, MI, and MN. Republicans can and do win under certain, limited scenarios, but usually the democrat gets at least a narrow win.
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2017, 12:24:02 pm »

Image what this race would be if Trump were actually popular. Gillespie would be running away with it. This is the guy who nearly beat Mark Warner, and became a giant killer. People tend to forget that the only reason McAuliffe barely squeaked by was because Cuccinelli was cast as some religious right social fundamentalist. Gillespie is seen more as a technocratic Rockefeller Republican. At this point, I'll say pure tossup.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2017, 12:56:04 pm »

Image what this race would be if Trump were actually popular. Gillespie would be running away with it. This is the guy who nearly beat Mark Warner, and became a giant killer. People tend to forget that the only reason McAuliffe barely squeaked by was because Cuccinelli was cast as some religious right social fundamentalist. Gillespie is seen more as a technocratic Rockefeller Republican. At this point, I'll say pure tossup.

The government shutdown was the makn reason McAliffe won.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2017, 12:58:27 pm »

This looks like it's pretty accurate. As usual, everyone's saying this is an outlier.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2017, 01:16:28 pm »

This looks like it's pretty accurate. As usual, everyone's saying this is an outlier.

Too much credit is given to Gillespie just because he almost won in 2014, a low turnout GOP wave.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2017, 05:02:25 pm »

It really bothers me that Quinnipiac NEVER releases detailed methodology or meaningful cross tabs (% of Dems / Repubs in sample? Agebands? Gender / racial breakdown? Hello?). Jar to take them seriously as a pollster at this point but the fundraising numbers suggest Northam should be able to make a late surge here.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2017, 05:22:06 pm »

It really bothers me that Quinnipiac NEVER releases detailed methodology or meaningful cross tabs (% of Dems / Repubs in sample? Agebands? Gender / racial breakdown? Hello?). Jar to take them seriously as a pollster at this point but the fundraising numbers suggest Northam should be able to make a late surge here.

They do release Party ID breakdown and methodology. You can get to the page by navigating from their website.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/va/va09192017_demos_V73pwhr.pdf/
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krazen1211
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2017, 05:38:26 pm »

Junk Poll!
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2017, 05:54:15 pm »

This poll certainly has unsettled Atlas. Northam will win and that has been clear for a long time now.
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Keep cool-idge
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2017, 06:08:15 pm »

Why do we take Quinnipic seriously?
There last poll for 2014 warner vs Gillespie had warner at plus 9
It gets worse there final Virginia poll in 2016 had Hillary leading by 11
Virginia polls are garbage we need a REAL POLLESTER to see what's going on!
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2017, 08:29:28 pm »

You'd think that after last year, people wouldn't be using past performance to determine a pollster's accuracy.

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"Deeply Troubled"
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« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2017, 09:26:28 pm »
« Edited: September 19, 2017, 09:29:22 pm by OneJ_ »

You'd think that after last year, people wouldn't be using past performance to determine a pollster's accuracy.



This.

Btw, Northam obviously still has the advantage so still Lean D.
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10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill..
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2017, 08:03:16 am »

I think the take home from all the polls this week is that Northam is definitely ahead around the MoE. It would look really bad if the Republicans GAIN a major office in a time like this.
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