Wow. Biden's going to lead in the IA polling average with just a month until election day. IA is a tossup. Trump's toast in WI+MI+MN.
And with OH also a toss-up, he’s toast in PA as well.
Midwest/rust belt seems to be returning to 2012 levels.
If Biden does win Iowa and Ohio, it won’t be because of a return to 2012. Biden will probably gain some WWC voters back to be sure, but the gains will almost definitely be driven more by suburban swings like we’ve seen everywhere else. Kentucky Governor’s race last year was a real good example of this when you compare Beshear’s 2015 win to his 2019 win. The margin was essentially the same statewide, but he traded large swaths of rural counties for urban and suburban gains. I guess you’d see places like Warren and Dallas counties in Iowa flip in this analogy.
Trends are usually real, but temporary mean reversion can happen with margins like these. If Biden's winning here, he'll be achieving a swing of almost equal proportion (if not larger) in rural areas and the driftless area will be crucial (in 2018, certain rural northern areas snapped back harder than suburbs - although not to 2012 levels - and that would probably need to continue for IA to be won). This means the voter coalition will be more suburban than in 2012, but the difference will be much smaller than in most states because IA is so rural to begin with. The gains from 2016 will also probably be more in the rural areas than the suburban ones for the same reason.
What started with corn pop will end in the corn fields.
