2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm very curious what turnout will look like during the extra week of Texas voting. I know it'll slow down eventually, but there's gonna be some short lines on November 3 at the rate we're going.

I know that might contradict my "Some Republicans may sit out the election if they all vote on 11/3" take earlier today, but perhaps Texas is different?


Harris County's 24 hour precincts will also be interesting, assuming the state doesn't put the kibosh on it

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1317276105221509120

Judge Clay Jenkins must be so happy to not have to be the COVID wet blanket for a while and be able to talk about something uplifting. He's had to be the "No, your bar CANNOT open, what are you thinking" guy for the last over half a year of his life.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1317276105221509120

Judge Clay Jenkins must be so happy to not have to be the COVID wet blanket for a while and be able to talk about something uplifting. He's had to be the "No, your bar CANNOT open, what are you thinking" guy for the last over half a year of his life.

Well, it looks like he was also the “no, you SHOULD NOT go trick or treating” guy today though.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1317284212492427264

Texas is looking like a totally different state than 2016

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1317284212492427264

Texas is looking like a totally different state than 2016

Plus, Travis County is at 40% of total 2016 turnout!!!

186,280/468,720 = 39.74%
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct16.pdf

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

(Tweet snip)

Plus, Travis County is at 40% of total 2016 turnout!!!

186,280/468,720 = 39.74%
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct16.pdf

Denton & Williamson Counties reached 50% of their total 2016 turnout today. On Day 4 of 2018 early voting, they were at 28% & 37%.


                        2016          2020 votes after today

Denton            298645     ~152423
Williamson       203081     ~102013


The suburbs are fired up!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

(Tweet snip)

Plus, Travis County is at 40% of total 2016 turnout!!!

186,280/468,720 = 39.74%
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct16.pdf

Denton & Williamson Counties reached 50% of total 2016 turnout today. On the fourth day of early voting in 2018, they were at 28% & 37%.

The suburbs are coming in hot!

Regardless of what the final outcome is there, it is going to be important to witness what is happening in Texas this year.

[GP270watch]

(Tweet snip)

Plus, Travis County is at 40% of total 2016 turnout!!!

186,280/468,720 = 39.74%
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct16.pdf

Denton & Williamson Counties reached 50% of total 2016 turnout today. On the fourth day of early voting in 2018, they were at 28% & 37%.

The suburbs are coming in hot!

Regardless of what the final outcome is there, it is going to be important to witness what is happening in Texas this year.

 I was totally impressed with Beto's loss in 2018, I think people slept on what he did even if he fell short.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/foxnews/status/1317249264020586502

[Holmes]

I feel like Pennsylvania is really struggling with the voting by mail.

[swf541]

Reading the article, seems over 90% of that number is duplicates caused from people not realizing they already requested one during the primary. 

Seems not that big of a deal to me unless im missing smth

[Roll Roons]

Yeah, the primary made it clear that PA could be a real trouble spot when it comes to ballot processing/counting. Really hope Biden takes Florida and ends the race on November 3rd.

[swf541]

Yeah, the primary made it clear that PA could be a real trouble spot when it comes to ballot processing/counting. Really hope Biden takes Florida and ends the race on November 3rd.

Completely agreed, while I think PA will handle the voting results well in the end I do think its going to take them a seriously long time to process it.

[libertpaulian]

I don't think the turnout in Texas is going to slow down.

Tomorrow is going to be insane.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm not all that concerned with Pennsylvania taking a while to count votes as long as every vote is counted. 

When the national results show Biden up 10 million votes or close to that, Trump won't be in a position to declare victory because Pennsylvania is still counting (if it even comes down to Pennsylvania).

I'm more frustrated with the fact that we are a few weeks into voting and there is still NO reporting from most of the Philly suburbs.  WTF?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I feel like Pennsylvania is really struggling with the voting by mail.

They have been getting the PSAs out in force lately on how to fill out and submit your ballots, which is good at least. But no denying there have been some glitches with our first year doing this.

[prag_prog]

One thing I am concerned about is ballots not being accepted after Nov 3rd in Michigan even if they are postmarked by Nov 3rd. Michigan state Dems initially passed the law to count the ballots even after Nov 3rd for 2 weeks as long as they are postmarked by Nov 3rd but then the Michigan court of appeals blocked this extention. Similar thing happened in Wisconsin too. Gotta hope that USPS doesn't experience any delays in next few weeks. Luckily, similar kind of extension was approved Pennsylvania.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Texas is looking like a totally different state than 2016

This really feels like a state that's gonna throw pollsters off the most this election. The electorate has grown & changed so much since 2018, let alone 2016. Not to mention the general difficulties in polling Hispanic-heavy states.

Not saying that Biden's gonna win by 5 points or anything, but I'm seeing nothing that's leading me to believe Trump is gonna do as well or better than Cruz in margin or percents. This is looking like a nailbiter at the very least.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow

https://twitter.com/TexasVC/status/1317279285900693504

[MikeIrvine]

Wow

https://twitter.com/TexasVC/status/1317279285900693504

https://twitter.com/JTStinkworx/status/1317328517697314817?s=19

For context, because TX opened up early voting a few days early this year.

[Horus]

Tomorrow’s gonna be a huge early voting day with TX, GA, NC, NV, TN, and probably a few I’m forgetting having their first early voting weekend.

Won't be big in Georgia: some counties (i.e Democratic and urban) may have weekend voting, but GA only mandates one weekend day of in-person early voting (that'll be next Saturday, the 24th).

That’s lame, but that’s the same weekend as Florida’s first weekend of early voting, so the 24th should be a big day.

It's possible we still get half the votes we've seen per day tomorrow; I'm not abreast of every county that's offering weekend voting during the first week but if it's happening in the 12 main urban counties, then all of those in-person and mail ballots received could be close to that.

I know Fulton, Cobb and Muscogee are doing in-person voting tomorrow, and Chatham is doing early voting on both Saturday and Sunday (Gwinnett and Bibb are not doing any extra weekend voting).

DeKalb is doing in-person voting every Saturday and Sunday, though hours are shortened.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

While the lines and early "returns" don't necessarily tell us much about the actual Election Night outcomes, they at least indicate an electorate that is eager to lock in their votes now.  To me, this suggests that there are far fewer undecideds in this race. 

[n1240]

Historically early vote rate slows down a bit on weekends in Texas (more so on Sundays because of limited hours) , but the pace is still pretty solid and many counties are clearly on pace to pass 2016 total vote by the end of the early voting period, especially with the extended week of early voting. I think a relative lull is quite possible next week but it wouldn't be less than 50% of daily totals from this week, which would still be an impressive pace.

[n1240]

NC early in-person more favorable for GOP yesterday than two days ago, D+9 on ballots returned 10/16 vs D+20 on 10/15, white/black share at 67/23 compared to 59/31. Total vote is similar (322k vs 332k)

[Pulaski]

Giving people even marginally more flexibility in how they can vote leads to a huge increase in turnout, who knew?

Those Texas numbers have surely gotta drive home one thing for Democrats: making election day a public holiday should be a priority.