MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Dan the Roman]

It's not 2010 anymore and there is nothing that Republicans can latch onto like healthcare and Democrats having 60 seats. I also doubt that Markey will go on vacation during the campaign. Brown was definitely their best candidate, I can't see Winslow being an even better one for them.

Better. He is more liberal (or libertarian) socially. And he is at least as good campaigner as Brown. And i am of very low opinion of Markey as a campaigner - for last 30 years he did't have to sweat to win, and he is 67, so, he, most likely, forgot what tough campaign is. Even Lynch (as campaigner, not as a candidate) would be better.

In addition Markey candidacy means one additional thing: Democratic leadership doesn't expect to win House at least until 2022. No one would give so much seniority in the House for seat of backbench (and, most likely, not the most productive) Senator otherwise

People underestimate how much goodwill Coakley had from her time as AG. If Markey behaved in the way she had he would have done a lot worse.

That said, while I think Winslow is better than Brown circa fall 2009, the climate probably does make that irrelevant. I have never seen a more anti-Republican climate in Massachusetts, at least federally, even during Iraq.

[smoltchanov]

I agree. Winslow is a good candidate at bad time.

[Maxwell]

I say Winslow gets 40%, maybe even a little bit more, and then he goes on and tries to run for Governor.

[smoltchanov]

I say Winslow gets 40%, maybe even a little bit more, and then he goes on and tries to run for Governor.

I hope for 43-45. And agree on later

[Joe Republic]

The last dozen or so posts have been deleted, due to overall idiocy and poor English usage.

[minionofmidas]

The last dozen or so posts have been deleted, due to overall idiocy and poor English usage.

If you did that in real life, I'd hold you down so Smoltchanov could hit you harder.

But you couldn't have done that in real life so the point is moot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just when it was getting entertaining...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Former U.S. Attorney Mike Sullivan (R) has not officially announced a run, but he is circulating signature petitions while he "decides." State Sen. Bruce Tarr says Sullivan is 98% likely to run.

Meanwhile, Sean Bielat is looking at a run, too. We could have a primary on the GOP side, which would be very interesting and insanely low turnout affair with a Dem primary occurring at the same time.

[smoltchanov]

4 candidates Republican primary in Massachusetts Senate race. When did that happened last time? And how many votes will be enough for victory?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Possibly five, wasn't it? Bennett, Gomez, Winslow, Bielat, and Sullivan. Unless Bennett or Gomez has dropped out over the past few days without my noticing.

[smoltchanov]

Even better. Someone at RMG argued for "bloody primary". They may get it. Well, Democratic primary will be rather boring (between 2 "old horses"), so may be Republican will compensate at least in this aspect..

Does anyone knows anything about Bennett and Sullivan political positions? I am aware about other 3, but not about them.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Possibly five, wasn't it? Bennett, Gomez, Winslow, Bielat, and Sullivan. Unless Bennett or Gomez has dropped out over the past few days without my noticing.

Only two will wind up making the ballot, maybe three at most, if Bielat still has an organized volunteer base in place. The signature hurdle is brutal for Mass Republicans.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Possibly five, wasn't it? Bennett, Gomez, Winslow, Bielat, and Sullivan. Unless Bennett or Gomez has dropped out over the past few days without my noticing.

Only two will wind up making the ballot, maybe three at most, if Bielat still has an organized volunteer base in place. The signature hurdle is brutal for Mass Republicans.

Oh, of course. I think something like ten per cent of the state is registered Republicans, at best.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

In unrelated news, Scott Brown was, in fact, not drunk when he wrote those bizarre tweets.

[Brittain33]

I'm intrigued that he still thinks he might run for governor. I don't see how he can reconcile that with being a Fox News regular. That's poison in Massachusetts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In unrelated news, Scott Brown was, in fact, not drunk when he wrote those bizarre tweets.

Bqhatevwr

[Tender Branson]

Markey leads by 15, says PPP:

http://de.scribd.com/doc/126377949/Massachusetts-Poll-Results-2-19

[Roemerista]

Fox news is still the most watched news program, even in MA.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Markey leads by 15, says PPP:

http://de.scribd.com/doc/126377949/Massachusetts-Poll-Results-2-19

The wording on the abortion question is, um, tendentious. Then again so is a huge amount of the language used on the issue of abortion in general.

Fox news is still the most watched news program, even in MA.

That's because it's a cultural monolith (for a given value of culture) without any obvious counterweight of comparable influence over the 'left' (for a given value of left, in this country).

[Brittain33]

Fox news is still the most watched news program, even in MA.

Yes, and all the Fox News viewers in Mass are a small minority of the Republican electorate in Mass.

[Maxwell]

I'm surprised by the age gap. Lynch DOMINATES Markey with people under 45 (maybe because of how long Markey has been in congress), which I feel is weird for a Pro-Life candidate. But then again, the pro-life crowd in Masschussets among younger folks is HUGE according to this poll, so it may not be too surprising.

[Brittain33]

I'm surprised by the age gap. Lynch DOMINATES Markey with people under 45 (maybe because of how long Markey has been in congress), which I feel is weird for a Pro-Life candidate. But then again, the pro-life crowd in Masschussets among younger folks is HUGE according to this poll, so it may not be too surprising.

That shows either the subsample is unreliable or Markey has a lot of room to grow by telling young voters that Lynch is a proud social conservative. Actually, the subsample is definitely unreliable because while there may be lots of pro-life young Dems in Mass., there's no way this state has an atypically large pro-life youth population.

[Brittain33]

I checked out the poll. 50% "much more likely to support the pro-life candidate"?

Dan, Mr. Moderate, does this sound plausible for 18-29 year olds in Mass.?

The only way this makes sense to me is if the subsample is weird AND awareness of the primary is so low that the only young people who pass the screen are active in conservative or pro-life politics. But I really wouldn't read too much into this number as saying much except that they're reaching a small number of young people who may or may not be representative of who'll show up in April. I can certainly buy that Markey isn't inspiring young people like Obama, though.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm surprised by the age gap. Lynch DOMINATES Markey with people under 45 (maybe because of how long Markey has been in congress), which I feel is weird for a Pro-Life candidate. But then again, the pro-life crowd in Masschussets among younger folks is HUGE according to this poll, so it may not be too surprising.

That shows either the subsample is unreliable or Markey has a lot of room to grow by telling young voters that Lynch is a proud social conservative. Actually, the subsample is definitely unreliable because while there may be lots of pro-life young Dems in Mass., there's no way this state has an atypically large pro-life youth population.

The problem is that Lynch is not, in fact, a 'proud social conservative'. He's not even moderate or center-right on any issue other than abortion. He's anemic on LGBT issues and generic D on almost everything else.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Exactly.  Some people here are acting as if Lynch will repeal Roe vs Wade or something.  He's a generic D candidate.