MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Roemerista]

Were did you hear about that debt?

I thought he was 200k in the black.

[Talleyrand]

Does Massachusetts have open or closed primaries? If it has open primaries, I could see Brown supporters, mostly Republican crossing over and voting for Lynch in the primary, both to give their guy a better shot in the general and to pick the most conservative candidate from the Democratic side.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Does Massachusetts have open or closed primaries? If it has open primaries, I could see Brown supporters, mostly Republican crossing over and voting for Lynch in the primary, both to give their guy a better shot in the general and to pick the most conservative candidate from the Democratic side.

Closed. Independents can vote in one or the other but not both.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Does Massachusetts have open or closed primaries? If it has open primaries, I could see Brown supporters, mostly Republican crossing over and voting for Lynch in the primary, both to give their guy a better shot in the general and to pick the most conservative candidate from the Democratic side.

What Republicans?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Were did you hear about that debt?

I thought he was 200k in the black.

Oops! I wasn't accounting for the money he had left over after his 2010 race. After a little bit more research, I found a more recent campaign finance story. Brown is in the black by $400K.

http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/12/scott_brown_ends_campaign_with.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Does Massachusetts have open or closed primaries? If it has open primaries, I could see Brown supporters, mostly Republican crossing over and voting for Lynch in the primary, both to give their guy a better shot in the general and to pick the most conservative candidate from the Democratic side.

Massachusetts is semi-closed. If you've declared as an R or D, you need to vote in that primary. If you didn't declare a party when you registered to vote, you can cast a ballot in either primary without having to join a party.

Approximately 52% of voters in Massachusetts are "unenrolled" -- that is, they can vote in either party's primary. Republicans make up just 11%, and are hardly in a position to affect the Democratic primary's outcome.

[RogueBeaver]

Markey's in.

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/12/27/rep-markey-run-senate-special-election/1aidfQ9YeNT0xXXPnWuS8I/story.html

[Holmes]

I wish a fresh and inspiring candidate would step forward, instead of old men who are nearly old enough to be wearing adult diapers.

[tmthforu94]

I'd honestly rather have the Governor's mansion there for 4-8 years.

[Miles]

I'd honestly rather have the Governor's mansion there for 4-8 years.

I'd support Brown if he ran for either office, but I kinda' hope he plays it safe and goes for the Governorship.

[Maxwell]

They haven't polled Charlie Baker for the Senate, I'm wondering how he'd do.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd honestly rather have the Governor's mansion there for 4-8 years.

Uh? Why? You don't live there or anywhere nearby.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Markey's in.

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/12/27/rep-markey-run-senate-special-election/1aidfQ9YeNT0xXXPnWuS8I/story.html

Doesn't make sense. Markey is the 9th most senior Representative, serving since 1976. Why to give up such an impressive seniority to become freshman Senator?

[Lief 🗽]

Kerry has endorsed Markey and the DSCC has sent out an email reporting that Kerry has endorsed Markey. Looks like the primary has been decided.

[Roemerista]

Vicky Kennedy has also endorsed Markey

[Talleyrand]

Markey's in.

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/12/27/rep-markey-run-senate-special-election/1aidfQ9YeNT0xXXPnWuS8I/story.html

Doesn't make sense. Markey is the 9th most senior Representative, serving since 1976. Why to give up such an impressive seniority to become freshman Senator?

I completely agree with Kalwejt. I don't know why he's giving up thirty-seven years of clout to become 100th in seniority in a body of 100. Not to mention at the age of sixty-seven.

I'm not too optimistic on his chances against Brown either, to be honest, though I'll support him.

[RodPresident]

Democratic Party won't get a House majority in at least 6 years and Pelosi put Rahall as Natural Resources Chairman rather than Markey from 2007-2010. Senate gives national spotlight and he can be more powerful than he had been in House.

[Talleyrand]

Democratic Party won't get a House majority in at least 6 years and Pelosi put Rahall as Natural Resources Chairman rather than Markey from 2007-2010. Senate gives national spotlight and he can be more powerful than he had been in House.

I suspect Rahall is gone either through retirement or defeat in 2014/2016, so that won't be an issue.

He's not doing his constituents a service by throwing out 37 years of seniority for a potential shot at a Senate seat which he will stay in for at most 2 in a realistic scenario, not enough time to build up serious clout or or seniority, especially at his age.

I suspect Brown wins this if we nominate Markey.

[Dan the Roman]

Democratic Party won't get a House majority in at least 6 years and Pelosi put Rahall as Natural Resources Chairman rather than Markey from 2007-2010. Senate gives national spotlight and he can be more powerful than he had been in House.

I suspect Rahall is gone either through retirement or defeat in 2014/2016, so that won't be an issue.

He's not doing his constituents a service by throwing out 37 years of seniority for a potential shot at a Senate seat which he will stay in for at most 2 in a realistic scenario, not enough time to build up serious clout or or seniority, especially at his age.

I suspect Brown wins this if we nominate Markey.

Markey is probably about a 55-45 favorite over Brown. But Brown's real problem is less Markey now, but Patrick in 2014. Patrick needs to be drafted, but he clearly wants to be, and saving the Democratic Senate majority from Brown + Obama's desire for more black senators(as evidenced by the Booker thing) means there is probably an 80% chance he runs in 2014 if Brown somehow stumbles through.

But Markey may very well get the interim appointment now(citing seniority), and Brown will be running against an incumbent, and will have to define where he comes down on key national issues. And there really is not any middle ground left in US politics. There is no "moderate position". Rather there is the President's position and that of McConnell and Boehner.

[Zioneer]

I would argue that the President's position is the middle ground, but eh, that's not the point of this thread.

Anyway, looking through a few Youtube clips, Markey seems alright. Very progressive, and he's good on energy policy, which is a big issue for me (though not for environmental reasons).

[Miles]

Cupuano doesn't seem too thrilled about the direction of the race so far:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RogueBeaver]

Brown also considering Beacon Hill?

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/columnists/joe_battenfeld/2013/01/dems_fear_scott_may_run_gov

[Brittain33]

Brown also considering Beacon Hill?

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/columnists/joe_battenfeld/2013/01/dems_fear_scott_may_run_gov

Ugh, the Herald.

(which doesn't mean the story is wrong. Just, ugh.)

[RogueBeaver]

He also took a shot at Markey over residency.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/scott-brown-prods-ed-markey-on-massachusetts-residency-85679.html?hp=f3

[Landslide Lyndon]

He also took a shot at Markey over residency.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/scott-brown-prods-ed-markey-on-massachusetts-residency-85679.html?hp=f3

He follows the winning "OMG, Warren claimed she was Native-American!!!" strategy.