http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election%2C_2005Latest poll (Robbins SCE) NDP 40% Liberal 39% Green 13% other 8%
I predict NDP to pick up at least 30 seats but Liberals will win, maybe 50ish to 30 ish.
It's debate time!!!VICTORIA (CP) -- NDP Leader Carole James has a golden opportunity Tuesday to use a televised election debate to introduce herself to B.C. voters, say experts who have watched the rookie leader on her first provincewide campaign.
British Columbians have had few chances to see James, who does not hold a seat in the B.C. legislature, square off against her main political opponents, Premier Gordon Campbell and Green Leader Adriane Carr.
James, who was elected NDP leader less than two years ago, can use the debate to heat up what observers have described as a slow election campaign by British Columbia standards.
"It's an enormous opportunity for Carole James," David Schreck, a former NDP MLA and party adviser, said Monday.
"And I think Campbell would just a soon eat a can of worms than show up to that debate. It's not part of his game plan, but there's no way he can get out of it."
Carr, whose Greens do not hold a seat in the legislature, is the unofficial debate winner before the questions even start because she gets to highlight her party's environmentalist message, Schreck said.
The hour-long debate starts at 7 p.m. PDT and will be shown live in the province by several stations.
Televised election debates in British Columbia are usually tame affairs when compared with the rough, rude and sometimes ridiculous barbs that mark debates inside the B.C. legislature.
But there have been knockout punches in B.C. during televised debates.
The most celebrated occurred in 1991 when former Liberal leader Gordon Wilson floored then Social Credit premier Rita Johnston and NDP leader Mike Harcourt with one sentence.
As Harcourt and Johnston bickered, Wilson interjected, telling viewers they were witnessing an example of why nothing ever gets done in British Columbia. The comment catapulted Wilson's Liberals from no seats in the house to 17 MLAs and official opposition status.
Carr has the potential to pull off this election's version of the Wilson moment, but on a smaller scale, said Norman Ruff of the University of Victoria.
Carr appears to be campaigning for political survival and if she can't win a seat, her leadership could be in trouble, he said.
"She's got the least to lose, but paradoxically she's got the most at stake. Her leadership is going to be on the line."
Ruff said he will be watching James, looking for signals of where the NDP is going with its campaign.
An aggressive James is a sign the New Democrats sense they can win more seats and may even believe they can defeat the Liberals, he said.
A calm and warm James is an indication the party is satisfied with its current progress and is willing to settle for second place, but with an increased opposition.
The NDP, after the humiliating 2001 election loss that left the party with two seats, held three seats in the 79-seat legislature at dissolution.
Ruff predicts the NDP will win at least 20 seats, but the number could go higher depending on James's performance in the debate and the remaining two weeks of the campaign.
Prior to the election, one NDP official said the party would be happy with 30 seats and the strong opposition bench those numbers provide.
"The NDP might try a foray to gain some ground against the Liberals," Ruff said. "It's a question of whether Carole James is content to take 20 seats or whether she really does want to form a government or come much closer to forming a government."
Campbell's goal in the debate is to appear leader-like while facing attacks about his government's integrity from both James and Carr, he said.
"He's got to appear to be first ministerial, a reliable dependent leader," said Ruff.
Campbell's leadership skills and debate experience will be his greatest asset during the debate, said Christy Clark, a former Liberal cabinet minister who quit politics prior to the election.
"That's a real advantage for him," she said. "It's a real weakness for James."
Clark said Campbell must also stay above the fray that James and Carr will attempt to generate.
"He's got to stay out of the muck," she said. "He's got to state his case over all of the misinformation that the other parties are going to be throwing at him."
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