Ukraine Crisis

[J. J.]

AP (according to Fox) is reporting a Russian convoy crossing into the Crimea. 

[J. J.]

Russians admit they are in:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10668357/Russia-admits-that-it-has-moved-troops-in-Ukraine.html

[J. J.]

Well, CNN has just cited Munich and the Rhineland.  Godwin's Law seems to be suspended.

My guess is that Russia will annex Crimea.

[J. J.]

This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.

It is not lost on me that the last Crimean War resulted in the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet, by the Russians.

[J. J.]

Putin is not Hitler.  He is Russian, and his goals are traditionally Russian.

It has been the Russian goal, for about 250 years, to have a major naval presence and a warm water port, in the Black Sea.  If Putin feels that possibility is threatened, he will take whatever action he needs to take.

What I think will happen is an "independent" Crimea, that is a Russian client (or puppet) state, or outright annexation.

[J. J.]

The lease is basically in perpetuity, and even Putin isn't pretending it's about the base.

But that is what it is about, the possibility of the base on hostile soil.

If you were an ethic Russian official sitting in Moscow 100 years ago today you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have go through the territories filled with Poles, Finns, Belorussians and Ukrainians, that we govern before the set foot on Russian soil.  In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them.

If you were an ethnic Russian military official sitting in Moscow 30 years ago today, you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have to get past our Allies in East Germany, Czechoslovakia  and then Poland.  Even then, if they enter the Soviet Union, they will have to get past Belorussia and the Ukraine before they step on Russian soil.   In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them."

Today?

I'm not defending Putin, but I do understand why he might be a tad worried.

[J. J.]

Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime

Hummm, where have I heard about protecting minorities in Eastern Europe before?

[J. J.]

Except that while Russia is stuck in the 19th century, most of Europe has moved on and is not about to invade the Motherland.

I didn'r say i agreed.  I said I understood.

[J. J.]

Christ J.J...

i repeat.  I said I understood, not that I agreed.

[J. J.]

What are our treaty obligations with Ukraine like?

[J. J.]

Well, if somebody does not want WWIII what s/he should do is

1. Immediately stop all negotiations with the Russians on all matters not having to do with the withdrawal from Ukraine. No contacts whatsoever on any matters - however minor or innocuous. The non-essential personnel at the embassy (and families) should be removed ASAP and in a very demonstrative fashion, US citizens advised to avoid traveling to Russia (and those resident there, advised to leave). Consulates outside of Moscow should be closed. Restrict issuance of US visas to the holders of the Russian diplomatic and service passports to the Consular Sections of the US embassies in Kiev and Tbilisi (continue stamping the visas into the regular passports in Moscow, to the extent that the reduced consular representation makes it possible).  Russians should be forced to sharply reduce their embassy staff and close their consulates as well. Encourage the allies to take similar diplomatic measures.

2. Immediately impose painful economic sanctions on Russian elites. The Magnitsky list should be expanded to include a few thousand people, at least (including the families of all the Russian MPs who voted to authorize the use of force in Ukraine). Put under the sanction regime all major Russian public and semi-public companies (including the likes of Gazprom). All financial transactions between US and Russia should be put under scrutiny. Russia should be put under notice that unless all troops are removed ASAP, all Russian assets in the US will be confiscated and used to finance the Ukrainian government (any attempt to preemptively remove such assets at this point should be summarily blocked).  Impose a special tariff on all Russian exports and imports to be dedicated to financing of the Ukrainian government.  Restrict the use of the US  airspace to all Russian air traffic.

3. Urgently remove all the restrictions on oil exports from the US. Guarantee, as much as possible, to the Europeans that their energy needs will be taken care of no matter what happens, as long as they join with the sanctions regime. Especially encourage the Turks to join in (they should not be too hard a sell - they are worried). Stress, that Turkish government will get the full support of the US in suspending the action of the Montreux convention on the Straights navigation: Bosporus has to be closed off ASAP. Lithuanians and Poles should be given guarantees of full support in closing the land transit to Kaliningrad.

4. Resume, very publically, the negotiations with the European allies on missile protection systems.  Make it clear that this is done in response to the new situation.

5. Start, as soon as practicable, major war exercises with the NATO partners in the region - both around the Black Sea and in the Baltics (as practicably close to St. Petersburg as possible). Reinforce NATO garrisons in Poland, the Baltics and in Norway. Negotiate with the Ukrainian government a few bases inside Ukraine (in friendly, pro-Western areas - but this would not only be Lviv, but also Sumy and Chernihiv, right on the Russian border). 

6. Another major war exercise should be conducted with the Japanese, around the Northern coast of Hokkaido. Support should be hinted to the Japanese claim on the Northern Territories. If Georgians and Turks agree, have the Turkish troops take positions on the LOCs near South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Have Moldovans and Romanians start very public negotiations about establishing Romanian bases near Transnistria.

7. At the same time, US diplomats should be rushed to Central Asia and other ex-Soviet states, offering guarantees of protection against the Russian invasion. Those visits should be very public - give them as much media coverage as possible, have Kerry himself go to Astana. The Kyrgyzstan airbase should be reinforced, if the Kyrgyz government allows (make it very hard for them not to allow).

If all this is done in rapid succession and decisively, there is still some chance of avoiding WWIII.

This.

However, I don't think this crisis will evolve into WWII.