The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Badger]

The voting Blitz strategy sounds fun, but wouldn't it backfire at the end because it would encourage the other party to work harder on gathering votes?

Um, I think both sides are already motivated to gather as many votes as possible.

[Badger]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.

Since you either missed or ignored the past time I made this challenge, NHMagic, I'm officially calling you out. The offer below is extended to you.

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........

[Badger]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore.  

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

He said the Democrats have been gaining in raw votes.  You said "Actually, that is wrong," and then noted that their proportion of the ballots has decreased.  Those are different things.  You are awful.

Yeah, JJ stated it poorly, but IF he's correct the point remains Democrats will reap a lower net vote total from pre-election day voting than in 2008.

[Badger]

Your "party" in Ohio is just a record of the last primary election you voted in. In 2008, 2.4 million Ohioans voted in the Dem primary, 0.5 million in the GOP primary. This year, it was 1.1 million in the Dem primary and 1.2 million in the GOP primary. So you can't really draw any concrete conclusions through a comparison of 2012 and 2008, at least by looking at the party "registration" of the voters. Michael McDonald, a (as far as I know) non-partisan George Mason professor who's sort of an expert on early voting, wrote the following about the state last Friday:

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link

The professor makes good points, but the crux of his theory is bolded above, and  perhaps a little overstated. Republicans can rightly claim individuals who voted in the Republican primary are overwhelmingly likely to vote Republican in November.

There are certainly exceptions which fit McDonald's analysis. Anecdoteally I've heard of a number of Democrats who voted in the GOP primary around here, not because they cared much for the race between Romney and Santorum, but rather some hotly contested local races being decided in the GOP primary, and not a contested Dem. primary race anywhere on the ballot.. Few of them will pull the lever for Romney, but those are very much the exception rather than the rule. There may be a number of "independent" (small i) voters who chose to vote in the GOP primary for the same reason. Very few voters who went to the polls primarily to pull the lever for Romney or Santorum, however, are switching to Obama in two weeks.

[Badger]

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source with access to ballot return numbers, the figures are as follows:

Total:

R: 187,824 (39.7%)

D: 171,971 (36.3%)

U: 108,421 (22.9%)

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

D's led in the final in 2008 by 1.8%:

Dem
   37.7%
Rep
   35.9%
No/Oth
   26.4%

How about this time in 08?

[Badger]

It's interesting that whites are up about 20,000, black + other is up 80,000. I don't expect Obama to win but I am really interested to see by what number he loses.

I posted it earlier:

In 2008, 51.6% of the black electorate had voted.

In 2012, 50.3% of the black electorate had voted.

Note that black registration has changed:

2008:  21.6%

2012:  22.4%

Note that black percentage of the electorate has increased by 0.7 points. 

That is an utterly meaningless statistic, JJ. In terms of both % of early voters and raw numbers of EV, non-white voter share is up.

[Badger]

That is an utterly meaningless statistic, JJ. In terms of both % of early voters and raw numbers of EV, non-white voter share is up.

As I, and others, have noted repeatedly on this thread.  I did want to note, however, that this was do to increased registration, and that the % of Black turnout has dropped. 

Your posting an utterly meaningless statistic is duly noted.

The non-white share of EV is up from 2008. Probably not enough for Obama to carry NC, but that is still the relevent statistic here.