Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Octowakandi]

So how were the debates? Did you watch them?

[Octowakandi]

I have a feeling the exit poll could overestimate De Soto and underestimate Fujimori and/or LA.

Taking bets now, if it comes down to Castillo vs Fujimori, who wins?

It's pretty likely due to the exit polls being famously bad at sampling rural areas which Fujimori has a lot of strength in. But then again, the abroad vote will almost certainly go for De Soto.

[Octowakandi]

Any exit polls on Congressional elections?  I assume based on Prez exit polls Free Peru and Popular Force most likely outperformed pre-election polls while Popular Action most likely underperformed pre-election polls.

Yeah there was a snapshot exit as seen on TV

10.7 Action Popular (Lescano)
10.7 Peru Libre (Castillo)
9.5 Fuerza Popular (Fujimori)
8.8 Renovation Popular (Aliaga)
8.4 Avanza Pais (De Soto)

[Octowakandi]

Update: 91.82 in, 50.203-49.797

Castillo gains 0.19 from 0.4. First update in many hours which we can straight up say is very bad for Castillo.

Still nothing from Cusco, nothing from Lareto from this.

Very bad in that he should be getting way more or very bad in that delays means they are burning ballots as we speak?

[Octowakandi]

New IEP poll out. You’ll love this one PSOL.

Castillo approval falls to 35-48, driven by a fall from 58% approval to 42% in the south (the left’s political base). On the other hand, 65% of people support confidence in the Vásquez cabinet (up from 56% for Bellido). Vásquez herself is at 41-46 approval as prime minister.

Is there a reason for his base to be disapproving? Just a sense that he isn't moving fast enough?