Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Does the international processed percentage count the percentage of stations that have finished counting or the percentage of votes?

Because while it says around 26% have been processed there are no votes processed from the US, Venezuela, Spain, Italy or Japan and only a tiny percentage from Chile. Those are the top countries of Peruvian expats and it's also pretty likely that Fujimori heavily overperforms in all of them.

It still seems unlikely that there will be enough to counteract Castillo's likely ~150k lead once the Peruvian count is finished but if that actually happened he'd almost certainly call the election illegitimate for having been determined by "treacherous expats". So maybe it's for the best if that doesn't happen.

The remaining jurisdictions where 10% or more of voting stations have not reported:

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

The outstanding northern vote is mostly in the jungle so I'd be quite surprised if it wasn't disproportionately favourable to Castillo. Maybe a little less disproportionate than the mountain vote though, which could make the difference if there are a lot of outstanding international votes left.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

I think that Miami will do that also but you don't need to make false statements to justify the claim!

States with Highest Peruvian Population:

Florida – 100,965 (0.5% of state population)
California – 91,511 (0.2% of state population)
New Jersey – 75,869 (0.9% of state population)

And once again, the proportion of Peruvians in Miami as opposed to the TSA has almost certainly increased since 2017.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1403888452710588418

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I know Castillo won, what I want to know is whether they’re gonna steal from him or not lol. This is PERU we’re talking about, it was always written on the wall that they would try to find an excuse to revert the election results. Even if it was by a larger margin you know they wouldn’t accept having the most left-wing president of the continent who is saying he will nationalize a bunch of stuff and rewrite the neoliberal constitution (Luis Arce, Alberto Fernandez look like boring moderates now lol).

He has just enough support from the legislature to avoid the possibility of impeachment right out of the gate, but not enough to actually achieve anything close to a leftist or even social democratic agenda. He beat Fujimori by (probably) the closest margin yet when she's at her most visibly corrupt and unpopular so he doesn't exactly have an overwhelming popular mandate.  He also lacks the institutional support to seize power like Chavez, so if he achieves anything legally it's more likely to be about "dangerous foreign gender ideology" or expelling Venezuelans than it is to be about nationalizing mines.

I think there's a chance he tries to push something too radical through, gets rejected, pushes his luck and gets impeached but more likely is that he just doesn't live up to expectations. Reforming the constitution when you beat Peru's Most Hated Woman by a decimal point, a majority of your own legislature thinks you're basically Chavez and the military is run by virulent anti-Communists is pretty close to impossible unless Castillo improves his popularity dramatically and beats Chile in a war or something.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/VLADIMIR_CERRON/status/1417222187090579458

Based Cerrón

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I know Castillo won, what I want to know is whether they’re gonna steal from him or not lol. This is PERU we’re talking about, it was always written on the wall that they would try to find an excuse to revert the election results. Even if it was by a larger margin you know they wouldn’t accept having the most left-wing president of the continent who is saying he will nationalize a bunch of stuff and rewrite the neoliberal constitution (Luis Arce, Alberto Fernandez look like boring moderates now lol).

He has just enough support from the legislature to avoid the possibility of impeachment right out of the gate, but not enough to actually achieve anything close to a leftist or even social democratic agenda. He beat Fujimori by (probably) the closest margin yet when she's at her most visibly corrupt and unpopular so he doesn't exactly have an overwhelming popular mandate.  He also lacks the institutional support to seize power like Chavez, so if he achieves anything legally it's more likely to be about "dangerous foreign gender ideology" or expelling Venezuelans than it is to be about nationalizing mines.

and somehow literally the first two things Castillo does is kick out Venezuelans and appoint as PM a guy who used Fidel's old "work will make them men" line unironically lmfao

Castillo's popularity is okay since he just shut up and let Fujimori humiliate herself but the rest of PL is just littered with unreformed Marxist-Leninists. For comparison the last poll I checked put his approval around 53-43 while that of Cerrón is more like 7-70, and even Cerrón is probably more appealing than that lady who wrote praises for Kim Jong Il's rule of North Korea. If Castillo can't cut them loose then his support is going to get dragged right down with the craziest elements of PL even if he somehow manages to get his cabinet through.