VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Brittain33]

Dave Wasserman (@redistrict) projecting Gillespie the winner of his primary.

[Brittain33]

Until McAuliffe won, Virginia had a very long run of electing a governor of the opposite party of the president. McAuliffe bucked this trend because of the D trend in the state. Neither augurs well for Gillespie.

[Brittain33]

Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"

[Brittain33]

Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"

lol, what

I don't think Gillespie really wanted his dog whistle to get picked up by Trump's bullhorn... but maybe if we're lucky Ralph will get a "nickname"

[Brittain33]

Yeah, there's nothing wrong with the Northam ad, at least not these days.... Northam can run his "Latino Fear" ads...

Northam did not run this ad.

[Brittain33]

I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

h*cking good. would empty quote

[Brittain33]

It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

[Brittain33]

So more bad news for northam Douglas wilder has no endorsement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovernorWilder/status/926129906576224256?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

LOL. I believe Wilder has done this with literally every Democratic nominee for Governor since he stepped down. He's about as representative of and influential among Democrats as "Democratic pollster" Pat Cadell.

[Brittain33]

Can we lock this thread until Election Day

Don't tempt me.

[Brittain33]

Welcome back, BigSkyBob!

If The Vorlon returns, the thread will be complete.

[Brittain33]

It's strange that people are now accepting their accolades three days before Election Day.

[Brittain33]

My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.

[Brittain33]

Momentum is not a real thing.

[Brittain33]

Momentum is not a real thing.

Spikes in donation, and increases in volunteers are.

Momentum is not a thing but publicly perceived momentum is.  If you have perceived momentum, it increases enthusiasm, which increases turnout among your voters and volunteers.

I don't see how that isn't arguing that momentum is a thing.

People use the term to argue that if polls go from Northam +5 two weeks before Election Day to Northam +2 one week before Election Day, we'll have Gillespie +1 on Election Day because of "momentum." Maybe you guys will be right and he'll win instead of losing in the polling average as he is now because of momentum, but we'll have to say.

[Brittain33]

And, if with ten days to go there was ten percent undecided with Northam +3, and each and in each of every one of the first five days .7% decide for Gillespie, and .3% decide for Northam [Northam +1], then, maybe, there are reasons to believe that the remaining 5% will break in a similar fashion[Gillespie +1.]

No, there aren't. That's the fallacy.

[Brittain33]

Larry Sabato predicts a narrow Northam win.

http://www.nbc29.com/story/36760091/larry-sabato-releases-his-prediction-for-gubernatorial-election

[Brittain33]

Ok, so final result is Gillespie 57-Northam 43.

[Brittain33]

Tuesday weather outlook:

Pouring rain in SW VA.
Scattered showers in VA Beach.
Slightly overcast in the morning in Fairfax, then rain once Republicans come home from work.

Great news.

I like this forecast.