The language weight was based on the language the respondent took the survey in, but was weighted using census data to mother tongue/language used most often at home. It's not an apples to apples comparison, so it's problematic. Could be lots of Francophones doing the survey in English. Anyway, hopefully I'm not accused of herding, we're still an outlier (we'll see what Mainstreet's numbers are). It's still obvious from the regionals that the Tories have the seat advantage, and could still win a majority.
I would think using the language in which they completed the survey would be a better indicator of who is actually Francophone. Census data for Francophones in minority settings tends to overestimate numbers given the push by French community/cultural groups to get anyone who speaks the language to identify it as their L1 for funding (and other) reasons. Not sure this would be the case in the Edmundston and North-West area because it is majority francophone, but in Moncton, might play a role. People like to identify with their heritage group (Francophone here) even if if is not the language they most commonly use.
