New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[the506]

Here's how I see things:

If you held this election out of the blue 2 weeks ago, it would be an easy PC majority. Higgs has handled COVID very well, Vickers is light on pretty much everything but name recognition, the Greens would probably get more of the "pox on both their houses vote", but flip 1-2 more seats, if that. The PANB would get Clegg'd and the NDP wouldn't even be worth talking about.

Higgs stunt this week changed everything. His sudden demands were unreasonable (get all 3 opposition parties to agree within 4 days or call an election). The whole thing seemed pre-planned, like he wanted an election and needed an excuse to blame the other parties. To their credit, the Greens and PANB seemed at least willing to negotiate in good faith, the Liberals took the bait.

I've never seen so much acrimony in NB politics, but nobody knows who to blame. PC and Liberal partisans are pointing the fingers at each other of course, the others are just generally pissed off. This is not going to be an election on issues or policies, but a horse race fought on spite.

I have no idea what's going to happen in the next 4 weeks. Does Higgs' rhetoric work and he gets his majority? Does Higgs get the blame and the Liberals reap the rewards? Or does Vickers stumble in the campaign too and we get the total chaos scenario (possibly including Premier David Coon?)

Hell, there's already even more momentum around the NDP than there ever was in 2018, a couple very vocal members of the online left in this province are running for them, including in Higgs riding. Won't come close to winning a seat but it might be a good place to start their rebuild. I just wish they and the Greens would stop sniping at each other and splitting the vote.

Oh yeah, please throw some $$$ at the polling gofundme. I fear most of the major pollsters are going to completely ignore this one, and the Narrative poll that's probably going to come out in the next week is likely going to be one of those month-long ones that's totally useless.

[the506]

First side effect of no polls: Liberal partisan twitter seems to have convinced themselves the Greens are going to get destroyed, despite:

a) nothing that would remotely suggest that is happening (in fact, the Google Trends I've been monitoring suggest the opposite); and

b) the reason they give (students not being on campus) isn't borne out by the results from 2018. Kent North doesn't even have a university, they won every poll in Fredericton South (and the one covering UNB/STU was one of their worst); and the Greens won a big chunk of the polls in Memramcook-Tantramar that are nowhere near Mount A.

[the506]

I'm not surprised Coons did this but if the NDP wants to be taken seriously there may have to be a lot of outside the box thinking. Thomasin has a better opportunity than ever to do a loud, shoot first ask questions later, online heavy campaign that could make some noise. He needs to use the few resources on hand, like the young candidates you mentioned. Cait Grogan is smart, funny, and has a following. Use her! Put her in the spotlight! Do something!

as far as I'm concerned, Cait Grogan is the de facto leader of the NDP. She crashed a Higgs event yesterday and got the media coverage. Too bad she's running in Higgs riding, I think she may have had a chance somewhere in SJ proper.

Like I said before, the NDP won't come close to winning a seat but they can take this as a learning experience so they can really be ready next time.

[the506]

yeah, we're spending way too much time talking about the NDP in this thread.

[the506]

This poll was taken over 18 days. Narrative's writeup says:

"When looking at voting intentions pre- and post-election call, there are a few notable differences, in
that after the election was called voters indicated they are less likely to vote PC, more likely to vote for
the Green Party, and as likely to vote for the Liberals."

This jibes with the Google trends I've been monitoring, which right now according to my hastily whipped up model, say something along the lines of 35-28-20-10-7.

L'Acadie Nouvelle (who I assume commissioned the Leger poll) said they have one coming out Saturday morning. Mainstreet is in the field too....I know cause I was polled by them today.

[the506]

Post-election call breakdown (aka the one that matters, high MOE or no): 39-33-17-7-2.

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/1299072170212184064

[the506]

yeah, I was thinking about that, but the "pox on both their houses" vote that got them those 3 seats is already going to the Greens and PA here.

[the506]

Pretty solid job by the Greens/PA/NDP considering the circumstances.

Yup, and in one of the 2 missing Green seats, they had one who backed out and the replacement (who I only first heard about yesterday) probably couldn't get enough signatures in time. In both ridings there's an NDP candidate so progressive voters at least have somewhere to go.

PA was never going to run in most of those northern Acadian seats anyway.

[the506]

Not so sure, I don't think a majority is guaranteed with these numbers. If you look at the regionals, a lot of this seems to be running up the score in the seats they already have, much like the Liberals in 2018.

Assuming they lose Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou, they need to flip 4 seats. They probably flip Fredericton-York. Moncton East and South could flip too, possibly Saint John Harbour or Victoria-La Vallee. Fredericton North seems to be slipping away (I think it's a LIB-GRN race right now). Not sure if they win those last ones, especially with the PCs apparently trending down.

Green vote is well concentrated in the Fredericton area and a handful of other seats. Coon is definitely safe, Arseneau probably is, Mitton could be in trouble.

Kris Austin would be the only one holds on for the PANB, and I'm starting to wonder about even that one. Fredericton-York looks lost, and Kevin Vickers is running in Miramichi...good luck with that.

[the506]

Mainstreet: 38-32-19-7-4.

https://qc125.com/proj/2020-08-31-NB-Mainstreet-338Canada.pdf

[the506]

Debate on Rogers Cable. Even other than yelling at the moderator, Vickers was in way over his head. Thomason was surprisingly strong, the others didn't do anything special.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CEkOX2uaFA
The good bit is at the 1 hour 10 minute mark.

I don't think a lot of people watched this one, but there are 2 more on CBC and CTV next week.

[the506]

PCs have a slim path to a majority. Assuming they lose Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou, they need 4 seats. From most to least likely in my opinion:

Carleton-Victoria (rural anglo seat they barely lost last time)
Moncton East (star candidate in former NB Liquor CEO Daniel Allain, he'd probably their only francophone MLA)
Moncton South (incumbent Liberal Cathy Rogers isn't running again, PCs are running city councillor Greg Turner)
Saint John Harbour (incumbent Liberal Gerry Lowe isn't running again, strong Green candidate may split the vote)
Fredericton-York (PANB incumbent but it's a tight 3-way race with them and the Greens)
Fredericton North (looking less and less likely, Greens seem to have this one wrapped up)
Miramichi Bay-Neguac (PCs are running former cabinet minister Robert Trevors but there may be too much of a francophone vote to get it back)
Fredericton-Grand Lake (Kris Austin's seat, this would have been more likely a few weeks ago but the PANB seems to have gotten some of its strength back)

[the506]

Liberals drop a candidate of their own over a bozo eruption:
https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1303124563207823361

[the506]

Doubt it. Memramcook is too francophone and Sackville is too much of a college town.

[the506]

The Greens seem to have more of a mix of "old left" and "new left" issues it seems , which I think will benefit them.

Agreed. The Greens have emerged as the pragmatic left-wing party, the NDP the hardcore ideologues and Chapo types who think Bernie Sanders is too far right.

Yes. It's not totally unwinnable, but if the Tories win that seat, any talk of paths to a majority would be redundant.

If the PCs win Memramcook-Tantramar, we're talking 40+ seats.

Also, what's the situation with Miramichi?  The Tories were a distant third last time; but more because their support slid thoroughly in the PANB direction...

PANB seems to have held most of that support, so much so that from what I've heard Vickers is in a fight to win his own riding.

[the506]

OraclePoll: 42-33-18-6-2.

https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Conservation-Forestry-in-New-Brusnswick-Report_Sept8-1.pdf

If this is true, there has been practically no change in voting intention since the writ was dropped. This poll was commissioned by the Conservation Council of New Brunswick, which ironically was the organization David Coon used to head before he went into politics.

[the506]

CBC forum (basically a debate with no crosstalk) last night. Vickers was the big loser, none of the others really shone or screwed up enough.

https://www.facebook.com/161231191936/videos/3550669758310670/

[the506]

No time to do the full riding writeups this time like I did in 2018, but here's my final outlook. It's based on my own proprietary model which incorporates not just polling data, but Facebook and Google trends which (I hope) gives it a better handle on local races that may not go the same way as the province.

Restigouche West   leaning GRN
I might be too bullish on the Greens in this one (I had it as a tossup as late as today), but they're running the same candidate (Charles Theriault) who came a strong 2nd in 2018, and the Greens have shot up on the north shore in the final weeks.

Campbellton-Dalhousie   solid LIB

Restigouche-Chaleur   solid LIB

Bathurst West-Beresford   likely LIB
No incumbent and a somewhat strong Green candidate takes this out out of the solid column.

Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore   solid LIB

Caraquet   solid LIB

Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou   solid LIB
With no Robert Gauvin, anyone who says the PCs still have a chance here should be disregarded.

Tracadie-Sheila   likely LIB
If the PCs had any traction at all on the north shore, their candidate Diane Carey, a well known local entrepreneur and consultant, could have taken this.

Miramichi Bay-Neguac   solid LIB
Maybe being too bullish on Lisa Harris here, with the PCs running former MLA Robert Trevors, but there's too much of a francophone population for him to win here.

Miramichi   LIB-PANB tossup
Kevin Vickers is running in Miramichi but is in a fight to win his seat. Michelle Conroy's victory for the PANB in 2018 was one of the biggest shockers of election night and she has been everywhere in the constituency ever since.

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin   leaning PC
Watch for a strong PANB showing here, like in 2018.

Kent North   solid GRN
Kevin Arseneau is up against former MLA Bertrand LeBlanc but he's made enough of a name for himself to hold on.

Kent South   likely LIB

Shediac Bay-Dieppe   solid LIB
Ex-PC Robert Gauvin is running here, Brian Gallant's former seat. With no Green candidate (she missed the filing deadline by 1 minute) I have this as the NDP's best riding.

Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé   leaning LIB
Strong candidates for both the Greens and PCs will eat into Jacques LeBlanc's margin but he should hold on.

Memramcook-Tantramar   leaning GRN
Megan Mitton won by only 11 votes last time but has established enough of a reputation here to expand her margin now, especially with the Green vote growing province-wide.

Dieppe   solid LIB

Moncton East   PC-LIB tossup
Former NB Liquor CEO and Dieppe councillor Daniel Allain is the PC candidate, he could be their token francophone if he's elected. I had him winning bigger earlier in the campaign but incumbent Liberal Monique LeBlanc has rebounded late.

Moncton Centre   leaning LIB
Liberal Rob McKee should be re-elected, but a surprisingly strong Green showing from Carole Chan could turn some heads on election night.

Moncton South   likely PC
With former Gallant finance minister Cathy Rogers stepping down, PC candidate and Moncton councillor Greg Turner looks to be the heavy favourite.

Moncton Northwest   likely PC

Moncton Southwest   PC-LIB tossup
My gut says the model is too bullish on the Liberals here, but incumbent Sherry Wilson's social conservatism has come up during the campaign and the Liberals are running one-time leadership candidate Rene Ephestion.

Riverview   solid PC

Albert   solid PC

Gagetown-Petitcodiac   leaning PC
Strong Green and PA candidates take this down to "leaning" status but I'd be shocked if Ross Wetmore loses.

Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins   solid PC

Hampton   solid PC

Quispamsis   solid PC
Blaine Higgs' seat. The NDP twitterati will be surprised when Cait Grogan fails to take 10% and possibly finishes behind the Greens.

Rothesay   solid PC

Saint John East   leaning PC
Fun fact: after Gauvin left caucus, incumbent Glen Savoie changed the pronunciation of his name from "Savoy" to try to pass himself off as the one francophone in caucus. Possibly a Liberal pickup under better circumstances, but their candidate has made some self-owns on social media.

Portland-Simonds   likely PC
Trevor Holder, who's spent the last 21 years in the legislature, is facing some stiff opposition from Liberal and Green candidates who will probably just split the vote.

Saint John Harbour   LIB-PC tossup
One of the most closely watched races in the province. Liberal Gerry Lowe, who won by 10 votes in 2018, is stepping down to return to city council. The new Liberal candidate is Alice McKim, a transgender high school teacher. The PCs are running Arlene Dunn, who's heavily involved in building trade unions. The Greens and NDP are also running strong campaigns. Conventional wisdom suggests a PC win with their gains in the Saint John area, but my online metrics are pointing to McKim.

Saint John Lancaster   leaning PC
The first issue that led to election speculation was taking away collective bargaining from nursing home workers last year. The minister involved, Dorothy Shephard, is running against the head of the relevant union, Sharon Teare. Strong Green campaign by Joanna Killen could affect the result too.

Kings Centre   likely PC

Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West   solid PC
What a difference 2 years makes. Andrea Anderson-Mason broke a 40 year Liberal stranglehold on part of this riding. This time, the Liberals couldn't even find a candidate til the filing deadline.

Saint Croix   likely PC
Former MP Greg Thompson won this seat in 2018 but passed away last year. The ensuing by-election was delayed due to COVID and eventually cancelled in favour of the general. PC candidate Kathy Bockus may win this one by default after the Liberals dumped their candidate (see upthread) and PA star candidate Rod Cumberland (who saus he was fired from his college teaching job for opposing glyphosate spraying) had a few bozo eruptions of his own come to light.

Oromocto-Lincoln   LIB-PC tossup
PC candidate Mary Wilson only won by 100 votes in 2018. This could be one of the province's few Liberal pickups. Steven Burns, who owns an IT firm and whose wife Sara was a police officer killed in the line of duty in 2018. Like Saint John Harbour, this is a seat where the online metrics point a different direction than conventional wisdom, and my model has less than a 1% difference between the 2.

Fredericton-Grand Lake   likely PANB
Kris Austin was probably in more trouble early in the campaign but *should* hold on with the party rebounding. His biggest opponent, Roy Wiggins, lost the nomination in Fredericton-York and was given Grand Lake as a consolation prize.

New Maryland-Sunbury   solid PC

Fredericton South   solid GRN
David Coon's seat. PCs are trying to beat him like the Liberals tried 2 years ago and will probably fail just as miserably.

Fredericton North   leaning GRN
Tight 3-way race. Green candidate Luke Randall, who owns an art supply store in Fredericton, blanketed the riding with signs early in the campaign and the other 2 major candidates needed time to catch up. Liberal Stephen Horsman seems to have checked out, and 2018 PC candidate Jill Green is back this time. NDP leader Mackenzie Thomason is also running here and I think the PC/Liberals best hope is he takes enough of the Green vote for one of them come up the middle.

Fredericton-York   GRN-PC-PANB tossup
Nobody believes me when I say the Greens have a chance here. But Melissa Fraser has blanketed the riding with signs and has more Facebook activity in than the PC and PA candidates combined. Google trends are in her favour too. PA incumbent Rick DeSaulniers is a strong 2nd in the sign and social war, but province-wide trends could put PC Ryan Cullins over the top anyway.

Fredericton West-Hanwell   leaning PC
Education minister Dominic Cardy has been attacked from pretty much all sides over everything under the sun (especially his strong stance on forced vaccinations), but his opposition is split enough (relatively strong Liberal and weak Green for the Fredericton area) that he should stick around.

Carleton-York   likely PC
Longtime PC MLA Carl Urquhart has stepped down, but Richard Ames doesn't seem to be in any trouble. Especially with the 2nd-place PANB losing steam from 2018.

Carleton   likely PC
Another riding with no incumbent that the PCs should probably hold anyway, though I've heard rumblings of a strong PA campaign.

Carleton-Victoria   PC-LIB tossup
Andrew Harvey is the only rural anglo Liberal in the province. The last 2 elections the PCs insisted they could knock him off, came close both times, but failed. Even if they do this time (and my hunch is they will), it won't be easy.

Victoria-La Vallée   solid LIB
The PCs dropping their candidate for transphobic Facebook posts sealed another term for Chuck Chiasson.

Edmundston-Madawaska Centre   solid LIB

Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston   solid LIB

Final prediction?

PC - 23
Liberal - 19
Green - 6
PANB - 1

[the506]

Any link to results ?  Also will there be any live TV coverage of results ?

All 3 local stations are doing live coverage, and they'll all be streaming somewhere. Either on their own sites or FB/YT.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/
https://globalnews.ca/new-brunswick/

I've noticed CTV gets the numbers in fastest but CBC has the best in-depth analysis.

[the506]

What exactly do the Greens stand for in NB? They seem like just a second Liberal party and they don’t even talk much about the environment

They're a typical Liberal party while the actual NB Liberals are a second Conservative party.

[the506]

Poll maps are up:
http://www.election-atlas.ca/nb/?e=2020

[the506]

hey, the Liberals did win those 2 polls in St-Quentin cause the PC and Green vote split just evenly enough...