CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

does CA have a resign to run law?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Given how fractured the republican field is, I think the one serious democrat running in the recall will get an all county sweep with pluraities or majorities in every country.

There is no serious Democrat currently running in the recall, and there won't be. Gavin Newsom will not be on the same ballot as Doug Ose and Kevin Faulconer and John Cox and Caitlyn Jenner and all the other occupants of the clown car; there will be one question on the ballot asking whether to recall Newsom, and another asking whom to replace him with.

Caitlyn Jenner is not a serious candidate and will not get any meaningful share of the vote. That being said, if I were a California voter (I'm registered in Georgia although I'm currently physically in California), I would vote no on recall and for Caitlyn Jenner, since that would be the most embarrassing choice to Republicans.

Looks like for the first time since the 1960s a Republican will win San Francisco!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gotta make himself more hyper-masculine cause he's not gonna out-Trump Grenell or any other potential trump-admin insider.

Considering the last Republican to win a CA recall was a famed body-builder and macho actor, I guess it makes sense for him to do this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1389343867325992960
CA GOP.... What happened to you?

Well they gave me an idea for a new username. PizzaGaetz was getting rather stale.

FubartSolman and clever displaynames. Name a more iconic duo.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1389343867325992960
CA GOP.... What happened to you?

Well they gave me an idea for a new username. PizzaGaetz was getting rather stale.

FubartSolman and clever displaynames. Name a more iconic duo.

California Republicans and crazy campaign gimmicks? Granted, it did work for Ahnold.

Say what you want about Ahnuld's term in office (and it wasn't good), but Governator was such a good gimmick, people voted for it twice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

saw this in my recommendeds earlier today, felt I had to share.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is looking like it's going to be another embarrassing defeat for the CA GOP.

Shocked, shocked, that the CA GOP is losing another election.
Winning elections is their pasttime!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Newsom is in danger. Others have pointed out that failed recalls like Walker's happen because the crisis that motivated them is in distant memory by that time. The issue here is that the recall will be held during the middle of PG&E Blackout fire season with a small side of water rationing.

Wisconsin isn't nearly as red (or wasn't in this case) than California is blue. It's not even comparable to 2003, when there was also a popular Hollywood star with universal name recognition and moderate political positions was running against an incumbent with low approval ratings. Newsom is fine.

WI has never been as red as CA is blue in any time in reasonably recent political history, with the sole exception of 2010.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

Also in the thread they note that those who oppose are more likely to go later, either voting this coming week or day of.

What I am asking myself is, "How can the recall have any chance of success if it's only up 50-48 in Orange County?".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

Also in the thread they note that those who oppose are more likely to go later, either voting this coming week or day of.

What I am asking myself is, "How can the recall have any chance of success if it's only up 50-48 in Orange County?".

Only feels like yesterday folks were adamant about OC snapping back to pre-2008 partisanship & supporting the recall by double-digits

The OC of today is not the OC of 2003 or of 1983, and it's good that this forum, panic-y as it can get, gets a reality check and is reminded of that fact, let it be in form of a poll, an election result, etc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

Could we be looking at Paffrath 2022?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Huge endorsement
https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1434174701182586883

Yeah, that'll help!

Seriously I think the California GOP, by pursuing this recall and making Elder the alternative, may have inadvertently rehabilitated Newsom's reputation in the state.

With enemies like this, who needs friends?
Jokes aside, it's quite something to see the GOP bungle this. There does seem to have been some discontent on the ground, but it was not at 2003 levels. And in this rather treacherous situation, they played their cards pretty badly.
There was no way California would elect as governor a man who said the minimum wage should be $0.
The GOP was so focused on what it wanted, it forgot to focus on what California wanted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

Could we be looking at Paffrath 2022?

Or, more seriously, Steyer &/or Villaraigosa 2022?

What kind of governor would Steyer be?