2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County is an absolute juggernaut

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317239801909751810?s=20

Anyone have an idea how the Harris vote is likely to split this year?  I'm assuming it will trend Biden at least a little bit....

Trump got over 40k votes less than Romney while Clinton added 100k to Obama’s. Take a guess how it will trend this year

[philly09]

We have now surpassed the 22 million votes that cast this time four years ago. Over 23 million votes have been cast due to a second TN update. And the day isn't over yet.

[republican1993]

1.3mil voted in harris county so getting 400k in 4 days isn't surprising - it'll start to slow down

There's uh....3 weeks of early voting this year unlike 2 in the past, so it's pretty surprising lol. Also Harris County has 7 am to 10 pm ev the final 3 days of ev in 2 weeks and one day of 24 hour voting at 3 sites on oct 29th

uh... so there won't be 400k in 4 days for every week lol it's just people enthuastic to vote people do this each election with the more people voting but it's the same result

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

1.3mil voted in harris county so getting 400k in 4 days isn't surprising - it'll start to slow down

There's uh....3 weeks of early voting this year unlike 2 in the past, so it's pretty surprising lol. Also Harris County has 7 am to 10 pm ev the final 3 days of ev in 2 weeks and one day of 24 hour voting at 3 sites on oct 29th

uh... so there won't be 400k in 4 days for every week lol it's just people enthuastic to vote people do this each election with the more people voting but it's the same result

Harris will be at least at 50% of its 2016 vote by the end of the weekend with a whole two weeks left of early voting. That is big.

[republican1993]

Anyone have an idea how much the dems or reps margin in AZ to pull it off?

[Non Swing Voter]

I really feel like Biden should start investing more in Texas.  It's clearly trending toward Democrats and the early turnout numbers don't lie.  Hillary did lose it by 9 points but Romney lost Michigan by about 10 in 2012 before Trump won it just barely.

[Minnesota Mike]

1.3mil voted in harris county so getting 400k in 4 days isn't surprising - it'll start to slow down

There's uh....3 weeks of early voting this year unlike 2 in the past, so it's pretty surprising lol. Also Harris County has 7 am to 10 pm ev the final 3 days of ev in 2 weeks and one day of 24 hour voting at 3 sites on oct 29th

uh... so there won't be 400k in 4 days for every week lol it's just people enthuastic to vote people do this each election with the more people voting but it's the same result

No this pace can't keep up but it is pretty clear turnout is going to be up from 2016. Only 58% of registered voters cast ballots in Harris County in 2016 so there is plenty of room for growth. Expand turnout while expanding margins and Democrats can net quite a few votes. I'm still doubtful Biden can carry Texas but it will help down ballot.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1317253594811387906

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1317267452116553728?s=20

[GeneralMacArthur]

Just a reminder, pirate Russell Crowe was elected 139,188 to 119,992.  It wasn't some big landslide victory.  FiveThirtyEight is projecting him to win by over 20 points based purely on fundamentals and there's been zero polling.  If Harris County is really blowing up, it's entirely possible he could go down.

[CultureKing]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1317267452116553728?s=20

AKA: Just about 50/50. Direct calculation yields 52-48 Biden.. hard to know how rejected ballots (yes, only a small percent) and changes in turnout could impact things.

I feel like the tie goes to the person who has locked in votes rather than relying on voters to show up later?

[prag_prog]

So Harris County is already at 40% of 2016 raw turnout..that's just crazy. Based on what I read on twitter, one of the reasons for this huge turnout in Harris County is due to their County Judge Lina Hidalgo, a progressive who won in 2018

[Dr. Arch]

Dane County is now at a 66% returns rate, and its surrounding areas (alongside other D counties) are at similar counts. The total statewide mail ballot requests now stand at 40% of RVs in the state of Wisconsin.

>821,000 votes already cashed in.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1317267452116553728?s=20

46.0 Biden
42.5 Trump

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: a total of 206,610 ballots were cast today, bringing the early vote total to 1,332,340.

Of the ballots cast today, 44,878 were mail ballots and 161,732 were in-person votes. The in-person total was almost identical to the first day of in-person voting, and easily surpassed Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in-person totals.

The identical number for total votes as of 18 days prior to the election in 2016 was 569,816 (42.7% of '20 total); for the first Friday of early in-person voting in 2016 specifically, 108,564 (52.5% of '20 total).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Almost all of those counties are at 1/3 of 2016 turnout including the border counties and the wealthy suburbs. Of course many have grown hugely since then. Montgomery is the outlier. Galveston is an outlier in the other direction as another GOP county, though, so we can’t conclude anything.

The big thing to me standing out is the fact that the RGV is pulling it’s weight and matching the statewide rates. Very good sign that at the very least, turnout there will top 2016. It will matter in a race where the statewide result could be <50k

[Brittain33]

Just a reminder, pirate Russell Crowe was elected 139,188 to 119,992.  It wasn't some big landslide victory.  FiveThirtyEight is projecting him to win by over 20 points based purely on fundamentals and there's been zero polling.  If Harris County is really blowing up, it's entirely possible he could go down.

He has so much money. It would be crazy if he raised such incredible amounts and still lost in a Lean R district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1317276105221509120

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1317259579990867970

So 6 million votes in today?

[Holmes]

Tomorrow’s gonna be a huge early voting day with TX, GA, NC, NV, TN, and probably a few I’m forgetting having their first early voting weekend.

[prag_prog]

How reliable is TargetSmart for early voting? I've been seeing their Texas model shared a bunch on Twitter (Admittedly by conservatives) which shows Republicans leading the early vote 50-42.

I'm just confused considering there's no political party registration in Texas. Do they track who voted in the March primaries or something?

So, based on what I understand, for the states which don't have party registration data, they try to project using modelling based on demographics and some other historical voting data they have. I went through their data for Michigan, Wisconsin (both these states don't have any party registration) and it just doesn't make any sense. Data clearly shows that the states where we have party registration data available, Dems are having 2:1 or even 3:1 advantage when it comes VBM.  Even all the polls show VBM and Early voting will be dominated by Dems by significant margin.Why would it drastically be different just in these states? So I just think they have a flawed model for these states with no party registration.

[Adam Griffin]

Tomorrow’s gonna be a huge early voting day with TX, GA, NC, NV, TN, and probably a few I’m forgetting having their first early voting weekend.

Won't be big in Georgia: some counties (i.e Democratic and urban) may have weekend voting, but GA only mandates one weekend day of in-person early voting (that'll be next Saturday, the 24th).

[Holmes]

Tomorrow’s gonna be a huge early voting day with TX, GA, NC, NV, TN, and probably a few I’m forgetting having their first early voting weekend.

Won't be big in Georgia: some counties (i.e Democratic and urban) may have weekend voting, but GA only mandates one weekend day of in-person early voting (that'll be next Saturday, the 24th).

That’s lame, but that’s the same weekend as Florida’s first weekend of early voting, so the 24th should be a big day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Tomorrow’s gonna be a huge early voting day with TX, GA, NC, NV, TN, and probably a few I’m forgetting having their first early voting weekend.

First weekend where Fairfax County Virginia has expanded voting I believe.  It's only one county but it's a huge county so I expect Virginia's numbers to rise a big chunk on Monday.

[Adam Griffin]

Tomorrow’s gonna be a huge early voting day with TX, GA, NC, NV, TN, and probably a few I’m forgetting having their first early voting weekend.

Won't be big in Georgia: some counties (i.e Democratic and urban) may have weekend voting, but GA only mandates one weekend day of in-person early voting (that'll be next Saturday, the 24th).

That’s lame, but that’s the same weekend as Florida’s first weekend of early voting, so the 24th should be a big day.

It's possible we still get half the votes we've seen per day tomorrow; I'm not abreast of every county that's offering weekend voting during the first week but if it's happening in the 12 main urban counties, then all of those in-person and mail ballots received could be close to that.

I know Fulton, Cobb and Muscogee are doing in-person voting tomorrow, and Chatham is doing early voting on both Saturday and Sunday (Gwinnett and Bibb are not doing any extra weekend voting).