COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[emailking]

When will they release the unemployment rate? It has to be over 15%.

That's tomorrow I think.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1256202305680158720

[emailking]

It's already a fact that hot weather does not stop the virus. if it was, then the virus wouldn't exists in places like Singapore.

The virus appears to be hindered by hot weather and uv light.

[emailking]

2nd highest number of cases today.

Deaths are down some though.

[emailking]

Yeah that gets mentioned every few pages it seems. I think new cases are important. Things aren't simmering down as long as we have 30K+ new cases every day.

[emailking]

What does "the true death rate" mean?

[emailking]

That sounds subjective.

[emailking]

You said the IFR for a representative cross section of the population. The rate is going to be highly dependent on what that is, but who determines it? It's not handed to us. People are going to disagree.

Do you assume everyone in the sample gets infected and no one else? Because survival rate might be dependent on whether there's room for them at the hospital.

Does the sample include people who don't get infected? Because then you have the issue that people who are more vulnerable are tending to isolate more, and thus less likely to get infected.

Back in part 1 someone (I think Beet or Meclazine) suggested the total number of people who ever die divided by total number ever infected. That's objective (if you can decide on both numbers) but it doesn't exist while the disease is ongoing.

[emailking]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/scientists-conclude-people-cannot-get-coronavirus-twice/ar-BB13tm64?ocid=st2

Korean scientists definitively conclude that it's impossible for people to get it twice.

You can though apparently keep testing positive for it indefinitely after symptoms have subsided.

[emailking]

Fair enough, how about we just extend the denial of treatment to those who break stay-at-home orders?

I don't really think the stay at home orders are Constitutional (even though I think people should stay home as much as possible). So no, I wouldn't use that as a basis. And certainly not without a conviction first.

[emailking]

Fair enough, how about we just extend the denial of treatment to those who break stay-at-home orders?

I don't really think the stay at home orders are Constitutional (even though I think people should stay home as much as possible). So no, I wouldn't use that as a basis. And certainly not without a conviction first.

Why do you think they would be unconstitutional?  States are regarded to have plenary police powers to act in the interest of the health and safety of their citizens, unless there is something specifically in the constitution that would prohibit them (e.g. the privileges and immunities clause prohibiting discrimination against out-of-state residents).

No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

I don't consider confined to your home to be liberated, nor a decree by the governor to be due process.

[emailking]

I just saw a model that predicts 350,000 dead in the US alone by the end of June.

I lost hope I didn't even know I had.

I'm guessing this was the worst case scenario of whatever model this is.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/TheBushCenter/status/1256607729151619073

I'm sure this has been posted already, but Donald Trump is the best thing that could've possibly happened to George W Bush's legacy. Just having someone show basic human compassion is incredibly refreshing.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1256911953903202307

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1257041820124680192

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1257283775375040512

[emailking]

So this new CDC model (see Gass3268's post) is predicting 3000 deaths daily and 200,000 new infections daily by June 1. 😲

Even if you multiply 30,000 by 4 (to potentially account for asymptomatics) that's still a big increase. Everyone here has been assuming this thing will be winding down by then, not reaching all new highs.

[emailking]

Where do they come up with this nonsense? It's obviously not going to reach 3,000 a day.

That's not obvious to me at all. I would have thought it was unlikely, sure. But I have no idea.

[emailking]

I didn't see the media report it as alarmist garbage. I saw it reported with concern about the implications if it's right. Regardless, the media aren't the experts on this.

I feel you on how stressful this all is. But that has no bearing on whether or not the model is right.

[emailking]

I'm sure all the people who were triggered by her boots will be even more triggered by this.

Well good, lol

[emailking]

I would agree with this. Individual businesses should have the right to decide whether or not they will require customers to wear masks while on their premises, but government should not, at least to the extent of fining, jailing, or otherwise penalizing people for not wearing them.

Does government have the right to tell you to cover your genitals in public, including in stores? It's for hygiene right? Because, so is this.

[emailking]

There is a difference between indecent exposure and mask wearing.

Yes of course any comparison involves 2 things that are different. 🙄

[emailking]

I just hate when people dismiss a comparison by saying things like "that's not the same thing at all."

[emailking]

With Northam's announcement, there's no way Hogan and Bowser won't also start reopening soon just because of how closely linked Northern Virginia is with Maryland and DC.

Hogan said 14 days of decreases across the board. By my count there's 1, and that could get reset tomorrow. VA opening makes that more likely too.

[emailking]

That sounds like a good strategy. But why can’t it be implemented?

Because it's not a workable plan. It would easily spread to the old and the immunocompromised, even though we'd be trying to avoid it.

[emailking]

A new study shows just how badly black people have been hit by Covid-19
The number of cases and deaths in minority communities compared to white ones is staggering.

There are some recent reports that high levels of mortality may be associated with Vitamin D deficiency, which is a problem for everyone but particularly acute for people with darker skin tones.

I take a Men's One A Day which has 125% the recommended daily value for that. Hopefully this would help me.