Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Inmate Trump]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

Any Democrat will be "corrupt" according to Trump and the GOP.

Seriously...no matter the nominee, they will be called corrupt for any number of stupid and/or make believe reasons.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1207650045836845056

Approval : 45/51
Impeachment : 48% against / 49% for

Yeah, not buying his approval is only -6 in Virginia

Probably not the case, but it's good to be cautious.

[Inmate Trump]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I couldn't agree more. Having the best approval rating in two years from a friendly pollster of only 45% is quite laughable.

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA" indeed.

Trump won with 45.92% of the popular vote. He could do that again if Democrats simply run up the popular vote in California, New York, and about six more states -- which implies a lazy or complacent campaign by the Democrat.

I do not expect a lazy or complacent Democratic campaign for President this year, and I see Trump winning over few voters who did not vote for him in 2016, and I see much disappointment.     

Mostly this.

I don't see where Trump can expand his margin much.

He already has Republicans.  He won't win any Democrats.  He can't afford to lost ground with any independents.

[Inmate Trump]

Which poll is he looking at?

[Inmate Trump]

What is it that Ohioans like about him?

[Inmate Trump]

He's not even at 51% on Rasmussen right now.

He makes up poll numbers.  Not the first time.

Then gets mad when a legitimate polling firm releases a poll showing him with a bad rating, and calls it fake.

[Inmate Trump]

Voter enthusiasm swings towards the GOP: https://apnews.com/4daf1b154eeff75b97b886e2fe8c1d29

Basically, Trump will equal or better his electoral landslide of 2016.

Electoral landslide?

Um....no honey...that's not what an electoral landslide looks like.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump's vote share 2016: 45.9%

As of today 538 (RV) : 45.8%
As of today RCP : 46.0%

Barack Obama's approval at this stage in Trump's term: 47.9%  (won re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

George W. Bush's: 48.9%  (won re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

Bill Clinton's: 48.4%  (won re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

George H. W. Bush's: 44.3%  (lost re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

Ronald Reagan's: 55.3%  (won re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

Jimmy Carter's: 56.7%  (lost re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%



Comparing these previous president's approval at the same stage with Trump shows that a lot can happen between now and Election Day.  Trump's not in a terrible spot, but he isn't in a good one either.

[Inmate Trump]

Furthermore, looking at each of the past 6 president's net approval vs. Trump's at this stage in their presidencies...

Obama net approval at this stage: +1.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George W. Bush's net approval: +4.2 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Bill Clinton's net approval: +6.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George H. W. Bush's net approval: -3.8 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Ronald Reagan's net approval: +19.3 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Jimmy Carter's net approval: +21.9 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

[Inmate Trump]

Also, Trump's disapproval is higher than all of the previous 6 presidents.


Obama's disapproval at this stage: 46.2%  (won re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

George W. Bush's disapproval: 44.7%  (won re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

Bill Clinton's disapproval: 41.7%  (won re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

George H. W. Bush's disapproval: 47.2%  (lost re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

Ronald Reagan's disapproval: 36.0%  (won re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

Jimmy Carter's disapproval: 34.9%  (lost re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

[Inmate Trump]

Furthermore, looking at each of the past 6 president's net approval vs. Trump's at this stage in their presidencies...

Obama net approval at this stage: +1.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George W. Bush's net approval: +4.2 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Bill Clinton's net approval: +6.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George H. W. Bush's net approval: -3.8 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Ronald Reagan's net approval: +19.3 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Jimmy Carter's net approval: +21.9 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Most of these (except Carter in '80) are actually somewhat close to the margin of victory (or loss) in the election.

Indeed.

And with Carter, a lot happened between January 1980 and November 1980.

In polling matchups between Carter and Reagan, Carter was leading by overwhelming to decent margins up until around June-July...then he slid, but still did decently from August to late October.  Then he tanked.

So it's possible that something happens causing Trump's approval to rise or tank between now and November.

As it stands, judging solely on his approval ratings...Trump is not really in a great position, though not a terrible one either.

[Inmate Trump]

While we're at meaningless statistics.


Obama favs were at ~60% (+25) when he first won. He got 53%.
Trump favs were at ~35% (-25). He got 46%.

Different times. You see what I mean?

They’re not very meaningless. There’s a historical trend and it shouldn’t be discounted.

And besides, I already said a lot of things can happen. Trump could rise in approval, or he could tank. The fact is, he’s done nothing to appeal to voters outside his base and he hasn’t made gains in support over the last 3 years. That’s why he’s stayed at roughly 40-45%. Given the economy, he should be well above 50%. Any other president probably would be, because they’d know when to speak out and when not to. An individual cannot be extremely controversial at literally every turn and expect to be very popular, despite achievements.

Trump’s mouth (and fingers) are his own undoing.

[Inmate Trump]

What the f*** is it going to take for this idiotic country to give our fraud of a President the approval numbers he deserves!?

About 40% of the country is so dug into believing Trump is some sort of saint and nothing will change their minds.

About 45% will never vote for him no matter what and are likewise dug in.

About 15% are wishy washy and might vote for him or might not.  Undecided voters are idiots.  These people don't know what to think from one day to the next, and nothing stays fresh in their minds.  They don't understand what's going on in the world, or our government, and they don't care to learn.  If you try to explain it to them, they either get mad or they get confused.

There are also a disproportionate number of voters within that 40% that live in states which give the candidate receiving fewer votes an electoral college advantage.

In short, our system for electing presidents is undemocratic.

[Inmate Trump]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

[Inmate Trump]

Georgia: UGA, Feb. 24-March 2, 1117 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 46

Strongly approve 38
Strongly disapprove 39

Trump 51, Biden 43
Trump 52, Sanders 41
Trump 40, Bloomberg 42
Trump 52, Warren 42

I don't doubt that Trump is popular/ahead here, but this seems a little too favorable for him.

Yea, this seems off.

[Inmate Trump]

If Trump reopens things the way he’s now saying he wants to, his numbers will fall again. What a boneheaded thing to do when this crisis has barely begun.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump was literally calling the virus a hoax a month or so ago. He also failed to respond in any way whatsoever when we knew of this virus in December.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump was literally calling the virus a hoax a month or so ago. He also failed to respond in any way whatsoever when we knew of this virus in December.

Of course, and it should be a damning indication of his lack of leadership ability, but people seem to have forgotten about that.

I would be surprised if it isn't a temporary bump.

The American people are panicking right now and looking for guidance from leadership.  Once the dust settles, things will even out again.

On the other hand, who knows?

[Inmate Trump]

Is it any wonder?

Time and time again he had the opportunity to be a reassuring and calm presence to the American people in the face of a crisis. Instead he attacked Democrats and reporters.

He had the chance to make a push for science when science is the answer to our prayers right now, but instead all he can do is spread misinformation and claim the warmer weather will be a miracle cure.

All the while during this outbreak he’s continued to conduct shady dealings and firings while no one is looking.

[Inmate Trump]

I am impressed by Trump's ability to constantly squander any ounce of momentum he ever seems to pick up in popularity.

Idiots don’t know how to not be idiots.

Donald Trump is on par with Joe Exotic.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1256178342052626432

They'll still vote for him, and they'll still turn out....rain or shine, virus or not.

[Inmate Trump]

Found the Gallup crosstabs:

White: 57/41
Nonwhte: 34/62
18-34: 45/51
35-54: 47/49
55+: 53/46
Indies: 46/48

Clearly the White and Nonwhites are way too high, and the 18-34 section is a joke.

Why would they poll like this?

I mean, are those demographics proportionate to the population make-up across the country?

[Inmate Trump]

His approvals are literally all over the place, from 40 through to 50....

Where the poll taken recently showing he's at 50 or more?

Not saying you're wrong, just genuinely curious.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1272514699578531840

But those numbers for Trump seem to have improved.

[Inmate Trump]

Just think: if he had given even a somewhat level-headed response early on to the pandemic and instituted nationwide measures designed to combat the virus, he would most likely be up right now.

But ya know, instead he discouraged masks, discouraged social distancing, denied science and discredited scientists, and spread outright false and sometimes dangerous information.



America does not have a president; she has a drunken and abusive village idiot.