UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Corbyn can't be trusted to reliably oppose Brexit, and he can't be trusted to reliably give up power at the end of a "caretaker" tenure.

It would be within the power of the opposition parties to instantly bring down his government at any time, lol. This isn't difficult.

As for the Lib Dems, their line that Corbyn can't be trusted to stop no deal for some reason doesn't make sense when there are SNP, Green, Plaid Cymru, Conservative and Independent MPs who have said they would consider it.

And the argument that Corbyn shouldn't have a go because only a unity candidate would work doesn't make sense when you take into account that there's around half a dozen pro-no deal Labour MPs who would have zero reason to support a Tory PM like Ken Clarke to stop Brexit happening.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal. You don't have to like Corbyn to think it was a tactical error to rule out a government lead by him before any discussions happened, something that neither the SNP, Plaid or Greens or even a couple of Tory rebels did.

The Lib Dem problem is that you can't court Conservative Remain voters in the south without losing dissatisfied Labour voters elsewhere. Not really a controversial statement.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Lol the government is trying to force the rebels to pass a vote of no confidence after they backed off over August.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain

By the remain side which has refused to respect the outcome of the referendum for more than three years now, you mean? You're right.

How have they done that exactly?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Buzz Feed says that Boris and his team are considering additional grossly un-democratic moves to force no deal, such as adding bank holidays, packing the House of Lords, and refusing to step down in case of no confidence

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

Like I said above, can he not just do nothing even if Parliament passes a motion to demand an extension on the deadline? Just pretend he was incapacitated or something?

Yes, although the Prime Minister may be prosecuted and jailed for refusing to implement Parliamentary legislation.

The most worrying part of that article to me is the bit about advising the Queen to refuse royal assent. That really would be a constitutional crisis.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Boris is basically reprising May's strategy of massive Brexit polarisation as the path to a majority. Maybe it will work a second time, but...

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Sensing a definite shift in the mood of the commentariat from "Cummings is a genius" to "Have they overplayed their hand?"

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This is why calling a general election would be a titanic gamble by Johnson:

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1168920541065109505

[Statilius the Epicurean]

What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

Yes, but the people didn’t vote for a deal.  They voted on whether they wanted to leave or not.  No deal was always an option.

So how is one "option" among many "the will of the people"? No deal is an option just as much as EFTA is. The government is blocking "the will of the people" by refusing to put forward a soft Brexit!

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think the most likely outcome is that Boris simply chooses to ignore the Benn Act. This is blatantly illegal, of course, but would anything really happen to him?

He could be impeached from office by a vote of parliament, expelled from parliament, and/or have a vote of no confidence passed against his government.

Also, if Johnson (or anyone, really) violated the Benn Act they could face up to 15 years in prison and be liable for civil penalties for any damages incurred as a result of their crime. Civil penalties could also apply to anyone found to have conspired to aid Johnson in his violation of the law - that includes MPs and special advisers working in Downing Street.

Oh I'm aware that there are potential consequences for Johnson's inaction. My concern is, will those consequences materialize?

I suppose were Johnson to ignore the Benn Act, the opposition would call a vote of no confidence. But could they form a government in time? You'd think that the terrible prospect of a 'no deal' Brexit would bring them together, but I have my doubts.

We don't have a Presidential system. The Prime Minister is just an ordinary government employee and therefore has no legal immunity beyond certain protections from prosecution for libel while debating in the Commons chamber. Were Johnson to break the law he would be prosecuted and (potentially) imprisoned the same as any other private citizen would be, and if this happens I think it would be possible that the Queen would be obliged to remove him as PM without a vote of no confidence needed.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Lib-Lab won't happen. It will be Lab-SNP.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Lib-Lab won't happen. It will be Lab-SNP.

Think they will have enough votes?

SNP will almost certainly have more MPs than the LDs at the next election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

2017 was called by their MRP model, not ordinary polling.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Well, that was....something.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I like it when Dominic Cummings gets drunk and briefs to journalists whatever hard-sounding nonsense that comes into his head and they run with it as a massive bombshell story.