NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Roll Roons]

Why is it that all the calls for resignations are citing the sexual harassment allegations rather than the nursing home story? I think the latter is far worse.

[Roll Roons]

Unlike Northam, most of Cuomo's problems happend while he is in office compared to whatever somebody did in the 80s. Also Cuomo has multiple problems instead of just one.

Killing thousands of seniors in nursing homes and covering it up, or wearing blackface in college one time. Gee, I wonder which one is worse.

[Roll Roons]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

At the statewide level, but not the presidential level. Gore won NY 60-35% over Bush that year, winning by a slightly wider margin than Biden did over Trump last year.

New York has a strong record of swinging big towards incumbent Democrats (1964, 1996, 2012), and Gore's performance in 2000 was in many ways the result of continued goodwill towards the Clinton administration. It's hard to imagine Suffolk County going D+12 for President again anytime soon.

This era also marked the beginning of massive Democratic Senate overperformances in the state, which Schumer, Clinton, and Gillibrand all have since continued.

Gore managed to win Staten Island by 7 points. I still don't understand how.

[Roll Roons]

- Serial Sexual PredatorKiller

FTFY.

[Roll Roons]

- Serial Sexual PredatorKiller

FTFY.

Por que no los dos?

True. But I think it's important to emphasize the worse thing.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1496496900798885893?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%...

Judge Jeanine???

Most likely it'll be either an assemblywoman or some county legislator.

[Roll Roons]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Kind of like Oregon, I think there's an element of party fatigue at play just because Democrats have controlled the governorship for 15 years now. It also looks like the GOP messaging on crime/defund the police is resonating.

[Roll Roons]

Just for fun, I kind of wonder how Cuomo would be faring if he'd stuck it out, assuming he didn't lose a primary. I think he may well have been on track to face the same fate as dear old dad.

[Roll Roons]

Just for laughs, I decided to check out the 2014 Maryland predictions here, and wow...

A whopping two people had Larry Hogan winning, look what happened.

Not to mention, most people had Maryland as strong D in their confidence rating. Once again, look what happened.

For our Atlas vets here, what was the reaction like on here when Hogan won?

You think Zeldin will win?

I'll be bold and put this race as tossup/lean D. I think Hochul will pull it off in the end as of now, but I think there's a serious shot of a massive upset.

Sure Zeldin may not win by as much as Hogan did in 2014 (if Zeldin even wins at all), but the possibility is severely underrated in my opinion. Hell, look at New Jersey last year. I don't think that many people here (or at least the vocal ones) expected it to be as close as it was.

I thought New Jersey would be a 6 or 7 point margin at best. Don't forget that Cook never moved it out of Safe D.

Honestly, the fact that Trafalgar and Emerson were the only pollsters to even get it in the ballpark are why I'm not writing either off.