I believe it heavily depends on how Wallace conducts himself on the campaign trail and how he has reached out to the party. If he won the nomination, I assume he has at least somewhat reached out to party officials and lawmakers, surrounding himself with a number of good people and reassure them he would govern more like a centrist or center-left on economic issues with a streak of social conservatism while supporting civil rights. In the end, I think his coalition wouldn't have been enough to appeal to enough voters outside the Deep South. He keeps some traditional Democratic states, but otherwise Reagan wins the presidency by a convincing margin.
✓ Former Governor Ronald W. Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 347 EV. (50.61%)Governor George C. Wallace (D-AL)/Senator Birch Evans Bayh (D-IN): 191 EV. (45.94%)