1976 George Wallace vs Ronald Reagan

[foolcase]

How does it turn out?

[Sir Mohamed]

Wallace would never have gotten the nomination. If he did: I think we would have seen a left-wing 3rd candidacy, gaining some support, but Reagan would have won by a significant margin.

✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 425 EVs.; 48.1%
Governor George Wallace (D-AL)/Representative Mo Udall (D-AZ): 113 EVs.; 42.2%
Former Senator Eugene McCarthy (I-MN)/Former Represenative Pete McClosky (I-CA): 0 EVs.; 6.7%

[Roll Roons]

Wallace would never have gotten the nomination. If he did: I think we would have seen a left-wing 3rd candidacy, gaining some support, but Reagan would have won by a significant margin.

✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 425 EVs.; 48.1%
Governor George Wallace (D-AL)/Representative Mo Udall (D-AZ): 113 EVs.; 42.2%
Former Senator Eugene McCarthy (I-MN)/Former Represenative Pete McClosky (I-CA): 0 EVs.; 6.7%

Reagan would win Maryland and Delaware in this scenario. They were both fairly close in real life, Wallace was much less palatable than Carter, and Schweiker was a moderate from the Philly suburbs, so him being on the ticket would give Reagan the boost he needed.

[President Johnson]

I believe it heavily depends on how Wallace conducts himself on the campaign trail and how he has reached out to the party. If he won the nomination, I assume he has at least somewhat reached out to party officials and lawmakers, surrounding himself with a number of good people and reassure them he would govern more like a centrist or center-left on economic issues with a streak of social conservatism while supporting civil rights. In the end, I think his coalition wouldn't have been enough to appeal to enough voters outside the Deep South. He keeps some traditional Democratic states, but otherwise Reagan wins the presidency by a convincing margin.

✓ Former Governor Ronald W. Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 347 EV. (50.61%)
Governor George C. Wallace (D-AL)/Senator Birch Evans Bayh (D-IN): 191 EV. (45.94%)

[Fuzzy Bear]

If this happened, it would have inevitably spawned a liberal 3rd party candidacy that would have caused the GOP to carry many states with a minority of the votes.

George Wallace/Ed Edmondson (D) 79 EV
Ronald Reagan/Robert Griffin (R)  360 EV
Birch Bayh/Morris Udall (I)  99 EV

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Wallace would never have gotten the nomination. If he did: I think we would have seen a left-wing 3rd candidacy, gaining some support, but Reagan would have won by a significant margin.

✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 425 EVs.; 48.1%
Governor George Wallace (D-AL)/Representative Mo Udall (D-AZ): 113 EVs.; 42.2%
Former Senator Eugene McCarthy (I-MN)/Former Represenative Pete McClosky (I-CA): 0 EVs.; 6.7%

Wallace/Udall ticket? Sounds pretty crazy.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I am of the impression that a third party candidacy would not have come from the liberal wing of the Democratic Party but from the "liberal" wing of the Republican Party.

I kind of think that the perfect third party candidate in this scenario is Jacob Javits.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I am of the impression that a third party candidacy would not have come from the liberal wing of the Democratic Party but from the "liberal" wing of the Republican Party.

I kind of think that the perfect third party candidate in this scenario is Jacob Javits.

Nelson Rockefeller, the sitting VP, may have run a 3rd party bid if it became clear early that Ford was going to be dumped by Reagan.

HHH knew he had cancer in 1976.  Javits may well have know he had ALS by then.  There was Lowell Weicker and Edward Brooke. 

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I am of the impression that a third party candidacy would not have come from the liberal wing of the Democratic Party but from the "liberal" wing of the Republican Party.

I kind of think that the perfect third party candidate in this scenario is Jacob Javits.

Nelson Rockefeller, the sitting VP, may have run a 3rd party bid if it became clear early that Ford was going to be dumped by Reagan.

HHH knew he had cancer in 1976.  Javits may well have know he had ALS by then.  There was Lowell Weicker and Edward Brooke. 

Lowell Weicker is another good name, I think so.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I am of the impression that a third party candidacy would not have come from the liberal wing of the Democratic Party but from the "liberal" wing of the Republican Party.

I kind of think that the perfect third party candidate in this scenario is Jacob Javits.

He was the youngest liberal Republican at the time, but he was running for re-election to the Senate that year.

Weicker, however, was a big star at the time.  He was one of the members of Congress that gained the greatest measure of fame from serving on a Watergate-related committee.  He was 46 years old in 1976, a good age for a Presidential candidate.  The main obstacle he had was that he was running for re-election that year.  I don't know if he would have given up his Senate seat, and I don't know if he could have run simultaneously, but I suspect the answer to both would be "No". 

Ted Kennedy was 44 that year, but I doubt he would have left the Democratic Party to run for President.  Kennedy had appeared in public with George Wallace in 1973 in an attempt to fully bring Wallace back into the Democratic fold.  It would have been interesting if Ted Kennedy had been the "Real Democrat" running for President, but that wouldn't have happened.

Nelson Rockefeller, the sitting VP, may have run a 3rd party bid if it became clear early that Ford was going to be dumped by Reagan.

HHH knew he had cancer in 1976.  Javits may well have know he had ALS by then.  There was Lowell Weicker and Edward Brooke. 

Lowell Weicker is another good name, I think so.