2022 French legislatives

[parochial boy]

The PS have announced they will align themselves to LFI's programme ahead of an eventual alliance for the legislatives. Which is... suprising to be honest. Obviously much internal anger in the party, Cambadélis and Le Foll were reportedly very unhappy with the negotiations that were happening up until now. But all tentative steps in the right direction, and happening with enough urgency to seem possible. Génération.S also signed up, but, er, it's a bit optimistic refering to them in the plural these days.

Remains to be seen the EELV do - Jadot seemed quite down on the prospects on France Inter the other day; at least, down on the idea of being subsumed by LFI. So we'll see if either party gives a bit of ground.

[parochial boy]

Well, because doing that would basically mean confining the PS to its grave. And even the most centrist of the PS remaining stragglers don't really want to support a right wing party implemented a right wing programme in the hope that some day the will get crushingly defeated in the succession battle. Anyone can see how little influence the ex-PS defectors in Macron's set up have actually had over the last five years.

What is worth mentioning though re-the fail(ing) negotiation - it already does seem to be in the process of tearing the party apart. With on the one side the most rabid anti-Mélenchon types like Cambadélis and Occitanie president Carole Delga; and others like the mayor of Nantes Johanna Rolland and Rennes mayor Nathalise Appéré siding with Faure in supporting an FI alliance. The pro-alliance seemingly are in the majority in the party and among the 12 people who still vote for it, but it doesn't seem too far fetched to imagine that by the end of the legislatives the PS have in essence ceased to exist as an autonomous entity. Will likely be a UDI type shell for various notables that eventually withers away as they retire or move on.

In a similar vein, it's also very much the case that the failed negotiations have as much, if not more, to do with the enormous levels of bad blood between FI and the PS than to any insurmountable programmatic differences. Far more than between LFI and the other left parties. I was just watching an interview with Adrien Quatennens earlier today and he as much as implied that. As in, that there was a readiness to compromise with EELV and the PCF; and a desire to find common ground. However, with the PS there was far more bitterness over what was perceived as a Hidalgo campaign consisting of nothing except attacking Mélenchon during its dying phases, and that any alliance would require a "clarification" about where they stood. Similarly, as mentioned there are figures like Delga in the PS who are completely set on directing all of their ire at Mélenchon - instead of perhaps reflecting on what they have done badly themselves and how the results of all that speak for themselves.

Anyway, point being that no-one really comes out smelling like gold here. But at least LFI have been some way consistent in what they want; probbaly too demanding against a PS that still has the local notables network. But if certain figures in the Socialist party really want to have a hissy fit then that's their choice and not something evil man Jonluk forced them to do.

[parochial boy]

Put it this way though, if the PS dies we no longer have a serious left-wing force that is pro-EU.

Which, if anything, shows quite how wrong the "real divide is globalist v nationalist now" pundit analysis actually was. By all means, there a lot of people on the left, and a lot of people who voted Mélenchon, who are broadly pro-EU. Yet for them, the importance of supporting a left wing programme pre-empted the need to signal support for the European Union. Meaning that there are still a lot of people for whom the left-right divide signifies an actual political and lived reality.

At any rate, EELV are probably well on the way to being a more serious force than the PS. But - for FI (over)playing their hand right now, well, it's what we were saying was going to happen way back in the Autumn; that the left party that came on top of the pile was always going to have the objective of trying to force their hand in the aftermath. As much as anything, the way that the French system functions incentivises them to do this.

A pro-EU left, in the shape of the PS or not, isn't going to dissapear. And FI very probably won't establish themselves as uncontested leaders on the left in any case. In all honesty that would be expecting people to develop partisan loyalties that they really don't have; and the left will stay plural in a way where parties fluctuate up and down depending on the circumstances and the individuals. As you say, there are a lot of people who will go "well the mayor is doing a good job with the buses and the public library, so I'll vote for them again" or whatever. But the big tactical vote does probably signify to the left as a whole that people can be fairly forgiving with a candidate who isn't perfect and that they have all the reasons to actually sort themselves out and follow what the electorate is telling them.

[parochial boy]

Leftist legislative pact set to go ahead--officially--tonight and tomorrow.

100 seats for EELV apparently, including the one Sandrine Rousseau was standing in (Paris 9th, which is totally intuitively in the 13th Arrondissement); and they will get the PS's seats should things fall apart. Depending on which seats they actually are, that seems like a pretty decent haul for them - apparently the PCF and FI were still bickering over the Communists' wish for 25 seats including their 11 incumbents.

In any case - cautiously optimistic at the moment. I'm genuinely surprised and impressed that they could actually all pull this off.

[parochial boy]

Valls is running as an LREM Candidate

Ugh

Time to get the old classics out!

[parochial boy]

When we can expect to see candidate's lists?

Single member constituencies, so not lists. But...

https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1521883162950918146

This is a map of the constituncies agreed with the PS, PCF, EELV and others.

Lots of the choices are sensible - eg lots of green ones in Bordeaux, Lyon, or around Grenoble which all have Green mayors therefore better local networks. But none in say, Toulouse, which has a right wing mayor bit was very strong for Mélenchon. Similarly, lots of PCF where they have incumbents in the 93 or Puy-de-Dôme; or areas of traditional strength.

Based on Tony's map on the presidential election thread, I tend to think they should have given more to EELV in the Savoies - strong territory for a pro-European and ecologist left. But well, a few changes might come but this seems to be the decision

[parochial boy]

I mean, that's one way to look at it. How I see it is Melenchon/LFI looking to lock up some of the likeliest opportunities for themselves in case this thing doesn't pan out, like Harris suggests. The urban Lyon, Marseilles, Toulouse, Nantes, and Grenoble seats - among others - presently held by LREM+ which Melenchon won by substantial margins - are mostly reserved for LFI. Same with a good chunk best target seats not held be the left in the Ile-de-France, such as 3/4 non-left-held S-S-D seats. EELV are getting a areas that should be safe for LREM+, and I'm not sure what the point of negotiating for seats in Aisne or Aude for example given that the Far Right is likely to be sweeping those areas. 

Of their three Lyon constituencies, they've got the 2nd and 3rd which cover the 1st; 4th and 9th Arrondissements for the former and the 8th and most of the 7th - which were the parts of the city that Mélenchon won. Notably, neighbourhoods like the 1st, the Croix-Rousse (in the 4th) and La Guillotière in the 7th are the hipster/gentrification neighbourhoods. Overall a good fit for the Greens.

In IdF it wouldn't have made much sense to give them much in the 93 as Jadot underperformed his national result there. However they've got a lot in Paris intra-muros, which is more friendly territory. Including notably the likes of Paris-5 which covers the very green friendly and hipster 10th arrondissement; or Paris-9 where Sandrine Rousseau and where both LFI and EELV are strong

Their one in Nantes in Loire-Atlantique 6, which is the South of the city; which is quite sociall mixed, some gentrification, some more working class areas, but is one of the stronger parts of the city for the left even if not instinctively the most Green aligned. The PS obviously get Nantes central because of Johanna Rolland, like they get the best of Rennes thanks to Nathalise Appéré. They've also been given some pretty OK rural ones, like néo-ruraux central in the Drôme or the old Trégor Rouge in Côtes-d'Armor.

So overall, they have been given a lot of ones that make sense for their profile. A few choices that aren't so obvious but presumably have their reasons; and lots of no hopers because lots of seats just simply are no hopers. I don't get the feeling that they have been particularly parked in the most useless ones overall.

[parochial boy]

Their one in Nantes in Loire-Atlantique 6, which is the South of the city; which is quite sociall mixed, some gentrification, some more working class areas, but is one of the stronger parts of the city for the left even if not instinctively the most Green aligned. The PS obviously get Nantes central because of Johanna Rolland, like they get the best of Rennes thanks to Nathalise Appéré. They've also been given some pretty OK rural ones, like néo-ruraux central in the Drôme or the old Trégor Rouge in Côtes-d'Armor.

Nitpick: the apparent EELV seat in the Côtes-d'Armor is not the Trégor Rouge (that's the fourth constituency), but rather Marc Le Fur's seat, the third constituency (Lamballe, Loudéac, the Mené), which is also probably the most hopeless seat for the left in the department. Realistically, the first and fourth constituencies are winnable for the left, all the others are probably longshots.

Anyway, I imagine the real objective for EELV is to win at the very least enough seats to recreate a parliamentary group (so 15) and the number of winnable seats being thrown around is 30, which the upper limit of optimistic projections.

My main interest at the moment which I'm surprised no one else has discussed is how many dissident candidates (mostly PS) there will be and what their weight in their constituencies is. - I imagine there will be quite a few. For example, in Paris-15, Hidalgo ally and ephemeral PS deputy Lamia El Aaraje was passed over in favour of LFI's Danielle Simonnet, and she could run as a relatively strong dissident (she defeated Simonnet in a very low turnout by-election in 2021 which was later annulled).

Ahh yeah, I misread the map. Thought the green one was the fourth, when it's actually the one directly south of Saint-Brieuc. Should have looked harder. Woops

The one dissident that I have seen getting a lot of attention is Michèle Picard, mayor of Vénissieux, in the 14th. In particular because she is standing against journalist-slash-campaigner Taha Bouhafs, whose candidacy seems to have created a collective meltdown among the right and the cultural elite. Basically down to the extent he is an avatar of all they hate about the young Arab men from the banlieues. He is intensely controversial overall, and the consitituency is an old PCF stronghold. Though I haven't got a clue how well Picard will do in the end, or what sort of backlash against Bouhafs there might be.

[parochial boy]

On the flip side, I think the French, even as degraded as there's is, generally appreciate having a functioning democracy of the sort the Americans can only dream of.

You know, the president is the guy who gets the most votes, no gerrymandering, no voter suppresion, no having election results decided in the courts, no partisan justice system, no black hole of lobbying and party funding. I think they generally figure those things are all more important to their freedom than not being fined for calling someone an "uncle Tom" on Twitter is.

[parochial boy]

[parochial boy]

Thinking about it, one thing I'm not sure that has been mentioned is the potential role for triangulaires (or even quadrangulaires). In so far as, any candidate receiving over 12,5% of registered voters in a given constituency will qualify for the second round (iirc there are some technicalities but that is the broad jist of it). Leading to the potential, especially if turnout is reasonable, of second rounds opposing three or even more candidates in cases where they all acheive this threshold.

Or, in an election where the electorate seems to be splitting into three large and very antagonistic blocks, it is entirely possible that there are quite a large number of these. The antagonism between them therefore reducing the number of anti-RN désistements républicains (ie a non-RN candidate stepping down in the second round so as to concentrate the non-RN vote around one candidate).

In which respect, it's not always a simple question of where do RN/NUPES/LREM voters go in a second round they are absent; because all three are going to be present. And likewise, in terms of who wins where, that doesn't depend on the strength of one particular block, but in the degree of forces all have - as theoretically a fairly evenly split (lots of the South West, maybe) area would mean a much lower share of the vote being needed in order to win than in say the Paris region where there will be lots of simple left v centre-right duals; or in much of the rural North East where it will be centre-right vs far right with little left presence.

[parochial boy]

On the whole yes, you'd probably bet the bank on LREM all bar the two that have already been mentioned - and standing evey chance in those two as well.

However one thing to bear in mind is that it isn't just vote transfers. Equally as important is the turnout game. As in, in a perceived low interest, low stakes, low turnout election (all the more so for expats for whom voting is a bit more of an effort from the outset) there is quite an incentive for people to just sit out the second round if their party or candidate isn't present. And when it comes to the metropolitan votes - RN voters could behave eccentrically, or abstain en masse in second rounds they are absent from. Remember after all that a lot of 2017 second rounds did not end up going the way the first rounds had suggested.

All of which means that who bothers to turn up in the second round could matter as much as to who they transfer allegiance to. All the more so among RN and Reconquête voters as both of those parties have had, by all accounts, completely anonymous campaigns and are at best uninterested in the whole affair.

[parochial boy]

Why has not RN campaigned more?! Was not this their chance for a breakteough?! Are they blowing it?!

Parliamentarism just generally something that is in the party culture or that would be a priority. Like generally, from an ideological perspective the French far right does not have any particular interest in it. So Marine Le Pen is off record on basically not really giving a crap about the legislatives though.

Related to this, or stemming from this, the party has a very vertical power structure. As in there is a small cadre that constitutes the party elite and the rest are, well, basically cannon fodder. So cue all these completely embarrassing videos of RN candidates going on local radio/TV and being completely and utterly clueless - not having any idea of the party's policies, not having any idea to respond to any question that isn't the ones that they have formatted responses to and the rest. Basically - beyond the few dozen winnable seats, the party just lumped a bunch of no hopers in essentially not caring what they do beyond getting the 1% or so it takes to get public funding.

Likewise, even when the RN do get people elected, the party has an enormous attrition rate. A huge proportion of people elected under an RN label will quit the party over the course of their mandate. For the same reason, the party isn't interested in having an internal democracy, local figures, participating in the parliamentary process. So when people get elected on whatever list they are left out to dry, given no support, ignored and unsuprisingly wind up disillusioned and leave. Which is the story with the legislatives - they are interested in getting seats for a few of Le Pens' cronies, but otherwise, not interested - not the priority.

[parochial boy]

Between this and the fact that legislative boundaries are neither drawn nor overseen independently, it really is astonishing quite how American so many critical electoral procedures are in France, albeit through a glass etched with Jacobin insignia darkly.

Between that and the periodically activist constitutional courts, the complete ongoing meltdown over national identity and sense of decline, the particularly unpleasant politcal environment, bouts of social unrest, issues with various forms of terrorism, hysterics about the alleged doings of the "wokists", recent global attention over the chronic police violence, et j'en passe... the very numerous parallels between those two countries in quite amusing on the whole

[parochial boy]

I mean it's obviously a huge oversimplification (as is almost any time any politician talks about another country's politics), but the fact does remain that Portugal is better off now because it disregarded many of the Troika's recommendations back in 2015, and that is something worth keeping in mind when we view EU fiscal agreements as sacrosanct.

Yeah that's the thing. I mean it's hard not to conclude that the PS did make some big tactical mistakes in hitching itself too closely to the Maastricht rules and the EU-as-it-currently existed. As much as anything because it led to an unhealthy conflation whereby any criticism of the EU was made out as being criticism of the European project in itself. Which is completely insane, you should be able to affirm that you attached to the ideals of the EU all the while being able to criticise the institutions and treaties as they currently exist. Just as criticising the electoral college or the absence of universal healthcare obviously doesn't mean that you hate America.

In that respect, it's noteworthy that a guy like Piketty - who is the polar opposite of a souverainiste europhobe - is behind NUPES. The tactic is hard headed, but I would be cautiously optimistic that one of the big motors of European Integration that is France starting to push back against the deficit and "competition" fetishism would get a bit more engagement from the likes of the Germans than Syriza ever did.

[parochial boy]

Blanquer eliminated in the first round. I am being totally neutral and objective in saying the following:

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Adieu et bon débarras!!

[parochial boy]

The current IPSOS projection has NUPES slightly ahead. Let's remember one thing, three months ago the pundits were lecturing us on how the left was dead and how the left-right divide was finished. Well let's put it this way, regardless of what you think about Mélenchon or NUPES or whatever, but dead political ideologies don't win elections. The left is alive and it has a story to tell.

[parochial boy]

NUPES finishing infront in the Haute Savoie - 3rd. Which is in part notable because it seems a bit random, but is actually the Arve Valley which is the one industrial and identifiably working class part of the department (big problems with pollution actually), which already one thing. But also, NUPES finishing in front in a circonscription in Haute Savoie of all places - that's like - completely unheard of; all the more so when you consider that the onethat did it is the one part of the department that the "global trends" narrative would have us believe would be falling into the hands of the far right.

[parochial boy]

I think there is a good chance that LR and friends do reasonably well out of their run-offs, but which still shouldn't hide the absolute pasting that they have received.

There is also something of a big question mark on exactly how RN voters will behave in the second round NUPES - Ensemble run offs. Polling typically points to them splitting fairly evenly. There will likely be some pretty heavy abstention, but more to the point, as there have been so few historical instances of these sorts of run offs there's a bigger chance of the polling being off. That and the potential different behaviours between the "liberal" souther far right voters and the "social" northern ones.

[parochial boy]

Bear in mind that over the last week LREM and friends have accused NUPES of being equally as anti-républicain as the RN, have equivocated on how the behave in RN-NUPES run offs, made everything out as to accelerate the detoxification of RN. Because how can you honestly claim the RN are some unique evil if you then turn around and claim that the left are equally as bad?

[parochial boy]

Relaying the Mediapart coverage, but with 90 deputies you can be sure that there are going to be some absolute batshït insane RN types getting elected. Prepare for fun times ahead there.
.

[parochial boy]

Damien Abad and the abject Darminin both re-elected... you know, in most normal countries being on rape charges would mean the end of your career. Not re-election and a minsterial post.

[parochial boy]

Outside of a few delirious months in 2017 I've never actually seen Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the saviour of the French left, but I can see why the people who do, do. He's probably one of the most powerful and inspiring speakers in Western politics today, even if I think he's using those talents to sell a load of crap for ultimately self-serving goals (not that that's unusual for French politicians...) - it's not hard to see why, with the PS of old dead, he's going to have a grip over the majority of the French left for as long as he wants it.

I don’t know overall though. He autodestructed post 2017 and it’s not exactly as if he has lost that capacity to alienate everyone who even slightly disagrees with him since then. Plus we have the same issue as ever which is that the guy manifestly had no interest in anything except the presidential election. Has no interest in developing the party into a structure with proper activists, grounded networks, a local implantation and all the rest.

I mean maybe the degree to which he did actually take the législatives seriously might indicate that that is changing, as might LFIs presence in the 93. But that is by no means the same as saying it will happen or that he hasn’t just been disillusioned by the exercise. Only time will tell, but while there definitely is the space for him or for LFI to lead the left, it does sort of depend on them not hashing it up and learning from what went wrong last time. And time for some other figures to step up to the plate.

Unless that is, the other hot take is that the age of parties is dead and gone in France. The three biggest parliamentary factions are not « parties » with activists and internal democracy and structured representation and all that. They are the personal vehicles of Macron, Le Pen and Jonluk. Which means that there won’t be a party leading the left because that’s not how it works any more. And the stakes of the next five years are about who can emerge as the leading figure on the left bloc, but also who will emerge as the successor in the liberal bloc. With the intermediate elections being the qualifying rounds or being played around local notables with no especially relevant partisan consequences. The far right one at least appears safe in Marines hands for the time being.

[parochial boy]

Are there ANY policies whatsoever where there is a difference of opinion between Ensemble and LR?

There are some pretty major policy differences between LR and LR at the moment. Between the Macron compatible ones and the likes of Ciotti or Wauquiez who have parked themselves somewhere to the right of Le Pen. The internal tension over how, or how not, to collaborate with Macron is likely to be one of the defining features of the upcoming legislature though.

Taken as a whole though LR are perceptively to the right of Macron though - remember that LR themselves have gone through a process of radicalisation over the last 5 or so years. For instance, Macron might be an ideological economic right winger, but he isn't quite on the brain melting "let's sack 600 million public sector employees" type stuff that LR come with these days - so whatever economic reforms Macron wants, LR will push to do them harder and faster.

More to the point though, LR's line is much more culturally right wing than Macron's. Macron may have a habit of targetting muslims, but at least he steers clear of the rather more racially tinged great replacement rhetoric that LR indulge these days. Similarly, even if still in a fundamentally market-liberal style way; Macron still has culturally liberal positions on things like gay marriage, parental leave, extending fertility treatment rights to lesbian couples and so on that LR would oppose. These are all issues that fall into the background relative the hot topics of immigration/identity, the state of public services, living standards and all the rest - but they still are ones where there is daylight between the Macron centric constellation and the old right.

[parochial boy]

Part of the story is that the cool and trendy crowd have decamped to Biarritz these days.

Which means that what remains is just old people; pieds noirs (although very much overrated as a factor); migration; the development of a particular economic model with huge levels of inequality, lots of especially precarious jobs (especially logistics or tourism oriented), car dependence, appaling sprawl etc, etc.. which all leads to a particularly acute sense of cultural and social anxiety.