Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

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Ehh, 25% is an extremely conservative turnout projection based on these absentee requests.

Turnout was ca. 18% for the GOP/DEM primary and for the Presidential election it was 64%.

If absentee requests are up by a lot and AL resembles other special elections, then turnout will be around 35-40% on Tuesday.

Even the 2014 Senate election in which the R candidate was unopposed, had 800.000 voters and 25% turnout.

My estimate is 1.2-1.4 million votes cast on Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know if CNN International will have some live coverage for this race ?

I guess polls close at 8pm ? Which should be 2am here.

This is one of the rare races where I'll probably get up at 2am despite having to work tomorrow ...

[Tender Branson]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

Turnout doesn't matter if there's a particular mood in the electorate ...

A Democrat can defeat a Republican by 60-40 with 10% turnout, or with 90% turnout.

Or lose by the same margins with the same levels of turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

Turnout doesn't matter if there's a particular mood in the electorate ...

A Democrat can defeat a Republican by 60-40 with 10% turnout, or with 90% turnout.

Or lose by the same margins with the same levels of turnout.

Uhhh, no: Democrats cannot win by 20 points in a federal contest in AL with 90% turnout, regardless of mood. Maybe with 10%, but even that's pushing the envelope of what's realistically possible.

Apparently, you do not understand how elections work.

Of course Democrats can win in AL with 90% turnout. If the mood is there and if the Democrat is popular and the Republican not.

[Tender Branson]

I am already weary of the exit polls that the networks will put out (considering the polls are varying from Jones+10 to Moore+10 ... )

It would be better to have no exit poll and only the vote count.