CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Calthrina950]

Newsom is, as has been stated on here, absolutely safe. The only way in which he, or any other Democrat loses, is if they're outed as Roy Moore 2.0. Barring that, no Republican (or independent) will be winning in California any time soon.

[Calthrina950]

Gavin Newsom is not losing unless he's revealed to be Roy Moore's partner in crime. And even that may not be enough anymore. California, like Alabama, is a very inelastic state and very hostile to the minority party. Faulconer might be able to get 40%, but he's not going to do much better than that.

[Calthrina950]

I honestly hope the CAGOP doesn’t have a debate cause I’m sure one candidate would constantly misgender her on purpose

I've been reading comments on RRH Elections and City Data, and unsurprisingly, the main objection which they (Republicans or conservatives) have with Jenner is that she is transgender. Although not everyone within a single group shares the same views (obviously), I'm still somewhat perplexed by the increasing prominence of LGBT Republicans, at least as they have been publicized within the media. And as the vote on the Equality Act, as well as the "transgender sports" and "transgender bathroom" bills that have been introduced at the state level, make clear, the Republican Party as a whole remains hostile to their issues and concerns.

[Calthrina950]

Caitlyn Jenner might as well be Meghan McCain-someone who appeals to absolutely no one and seems to find a way to piss off every possible type of political demographic. I don't know if she knows this, and actually thinks she can win, but if so then it truly is entirely a vanity campaign. If we're lucky she'll be a footnote in this possible election like Kanye West was in 2020, in spite of their celebrity...and relationship to Kim Kardashian.

Is our politics just going become Six Degrees of Kardashian at this point? Trump even factors into that!

Kim Kardashian herself is now a billionaire. It's absolutely disgusting to me how that family has accumulated so much wealth and prominence over the past quarter-century, launched by their patriarch's role in the OJ Simpson trial.

[Calthrina950]

I honestly hope the CAGOP doesn’t have a debate cause I’m sure one candidate would constantly misgender her on purpose

I've been reading comments on RRH Elections and City Data, and unsurprisingly, the main objection which they (Republicans or conservatives) have with Jenner is that she is transgender. Although not everyone within a single group shares the same views (obviously), I'm still somewhat perplexed by the increasing prominence of LGBT Republicans, at least as they have been publicized within the media. And as the vote on the Equality Act, as well as the "transgender sports" and "transgender bathroom" bills that have been introduced at the state level, make clear, the Republican Party as a whole remains hostile to their issues and concerns.

Expanding upon this, Democratic Rep. Karen Bass-who was on Biden's VP shortlist last year-appeared on ABC's This Week earlier today, and she said exactly the same thing as I was saying here: that Republicans aren't going to vote for a transgender candidate, and that anti-transgender legislation which they have passed elsewhere highlights this. And I've been reading more comments sections on conservative sites-this time on Townhall-and have seen more anti-Jenner comments predicated upon this basis.

[Calthrina950]

Watch all the peace loving LGBT activists say transphobic s*** about Caitlyn Jenner now that they realized she's based and red pilled.  We don't care what you do in the bedroom, if you love America, we support you.  I hereby endorse Caitlyn Jenner for governor~!

I thought you would endorse Newsom. He’s been the best governor when it comes to COVID!

Phil Scott would beg to differ with you.

[Calthrina950]

Watch all the peace loving LGBT activists say transphobic s*** about Caitlyn Jenner now that they realized she's based and red pilled.  We don't care what you do in the bedroom, if you love America, we support you.  I hereby endorse Caitlyn Jenner for governor~!

I thought you would endorse Newsom. He’s been the best governor when it comes to COVID!

Phil Scott would beg to differ with you.

Eh I mean Handling Covid in a state like Vermont with less than a million people is a lot easier than handling it in a state with 40 million people. I think Scott has handled Covid better but Newsoms been doing his best for how difficult a situation we were in. It's hard to compare their handling of the situation with how vastly different the states they govern are.

Of course, every state is different, but even you agree with me that Scott has been better on coronavirus. What you argue here does not detract from what I was saying.

[Calthrina950]

New UC Berkeley poll. April 29-May 5, 10,289 RV, MoE: 2%

First question
49% Remain in office
36% Recall
15% Undecided

Second question
22% John Cox
22% Kevin Faulconer
14% Doug Ose
6% Caitlyn Jenner

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-05-11/opposition-grows-gavin-newsom-recall-poll

Lol

As I noted a few weeks ago, Democratic Rep. Karen Bass said on ABC's This Week that Republicans weren't going to vote for Jenner because of her being transgender-which is what many have also said on here. And now, we have polling data revealing the truth of this. Jenner's attempts to move to the right and to cater to conservative Republicans by adopting the Party line on transgender rights and engaging in attacks against "socialism" and the like clearly aren't helping her.

[Calthrina950]

New UC Berkeley poll. April 29-May 5, 10,289 RV, MoE: 2%

First question
49% Remain in office
36% Recall
15% Undecided

Second question
22% John Cox
22% Kevin Faulconer
14% Doug Ose
6% Caitlyn Jenner

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-05-11/opposition-grows-gavin-newsom-recall-poll

Lol

As I noted a few weeks ago, Democratic Rep. Karen Bass said on ABC's This Week that Republicans weren't going to vote for Jenner because of her being transgender-which is what many have also said on here. And now, we have polling data revealing the truth of this. Jenner's attempts to move to the right and to cater to conservative Republicans by adopting the Party line on transgender rights and engaging in attacks against "socialism" and the like clearly aren't helping her.

Yep.

According to the poll, only 13% of Republicans are inclined to support her, while 62% are not. Faulconer, Cox, and Ose, on the other hand, all poll above water with Republicans on that question.

Either she's completely out of her mind and actually thinks she has a chance, or this is just a major publicity stunt. I'm guessing it's a mix of both.

I agree with you, although I think Jenner is more motivated by the publicity than anything else. She probably knows that there is very little realistic chance of her winning this recall-especially since it seems like it is doomed to fail on the first question in any case. And I have decried the influence which trashy celebrities-such as the Kardashian family, of which she is a member-have had upon our culture and our politics. Jenner's transgender identity is a major turnoff to the Republican base, and as Oryxslayer noted above, her political views are repulsive to most Democrats and progressives. The LGBT community, in particular, has always had a negative view of Jenner, who they see as betraying them through her stances on these kinds of issues-as her recent about face regarding transgender sports demonstrates.

[Calthrina950]

Still a clown.
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1410916638896107524

If Jenner were somehow the Republican gubernatorial nominee in the regularly scheduled election next year, she would lose by the same 60-40% margin that Republicans typically lose by in California nowadays.

[Calthrina950]

Still a clown.
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1410916638896107524

If Jenner were somehow the Republican gubernatorial nominee in the regularly scheduled election next year, she would lose by the same 60-40% margin that Republicans typically lose by in California nowadays.

Think about the sort of people who are still Republican in California nowadays-Evangelicals in SoCal exurbia, Central Valley farmers, and diehard anti-Communist Vietnamese immigrants. Hard to see any of them being particularly fond of a transwoman candidate for governor.

You're right. Jenner would obviously still carry these constituencies against Newsom in a general election, but turnout and margins would be depressed.

[Calthrina950]

I would so love for this to happen.
https://mobile.twitter.com/OANN/status/1410626412961177603

Poor Larry, always was a nice guy when I met him, he doesn't deserve this.

I've actually listened to some of his show's broadcasts on the radio, when riding with my father in the past. I know from these broadcasts that he is a native of Los Angeles. But obviously, as a staunch conservative Republican in a heavily Democratic state, Elder would be the definition of a sacrificial lamb, and like Jenner, would lose by 60-40% at a minimum if he got into the runoff.

[Calthrina950]

It blows me away that there are STILL red avatars on here claiming Orange County is going to vote against the recall

Orange County is going to likely be +10 or more in favor of recall

For the recall to succeed, we would have to see a similar map to that of 2003, when Gray Davis was recalled in favor of Arnold Schwarzenegger:

Basically, Southern California (outside of Los Angeles) would have to join forces with the Republican base in Central and Northern California to outvote Los Angeles County, San Francisco, and the Bay Area.

[Calthrina950]

Newsom's approval is barely above water and people can't stand his policies. CA is one of the highest taxed states in the nation, and obviously as we know, nobody likes taxes. Hispanics approve of the recall too and many are disappointed with Newsom's lax measures on immigration. He fails to enforce the laws. As of today, I do think Newsom would be narrowly recalled.



Yes - 53%
No - 46%

This map looks like a repeat of the 2003 gubernatorial recall map, and it seems to be a very plausible one.

[Calthrina950]

This map looks like a repeat of the 2003 gubernatorial recall map, and it seems to be a very plausible one.

Here's the 2003 Recall map.

I posted this map myself earlier on this thread, and as I said, there is a resemblance. The point about San Luis Obispo County is well made, however, and correct.

[Calthrina950]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

This is why I expect Republicans to continue to implode in blue states and states that are trending towards Democrats. I don't believe in the "redux" talk that is so prominent on Atlas, but it does seem like Republicans are falling into a similar trap that Democrats did in 2016. That is, they barely lost a winnable election so they blamed it on fraud and doubled down on everything that alienated the voters that shifted away from them, only to wonder why they keep losing ground in their old strongholds.

Yes, I expect 2024 to be the nadir in terms of how many governorships will be controlled by red state Democrats/blue state Republicans. Gubernatorial races becoming subject to the same nationalization/partisan voting patterns as Senate races will be one of the defining trends under Biden, especially with candidates unwilling to buck their party on anything of actual importance or being hilariously out of touch with the electorate at large (e.g. Elder).

I agree. I expect 2022 to be defined by straight-ticket partisan voting like we've never seen before. 

Such polarization is a terrible thing for this country, but I think this is going to be the norm going forward.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlvedaCKing/status/1435267814277984262
MLK’s niece

Alveda King is a staunch conservative Republican and was also a firm Trump supporter. She's always been at odds with her cousins (MLK's children), who are her complete political opposites.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1436134777623494682

This is  not going to be close.

At this point, it's looking like Newsom is going to win the recall by a margin of at least 20%, comparable to his 2018 victory. What a failure this has been for Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

[Calthrina950]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

No but perhaps those of you who called anyone who even suggested 2022 would be a fine year for Democrats should consider that maybe partisan voters will vote the way they are going to vote and it's not going to be a landslide for Republicans like many here are claiming.

Are you including me in this category? If so, that would be a misnterpretation of the views which I hold. I have said before that political polarization has intensified in recent years, and that the results in next year's midterm will likely be heavily influenced by it. Republicans will gain back the House by flipping Trump-House Democrat and marginal Democratic-held seats.

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

Yeah, that's a really bad assumption on their part. My take from this is that Democrats can simultaneously lose the House while also defeating a number of Biden-district Republicans in the process.

I absolutely agree with you. Even in 1994 and 2010-which were utterly disastrous for the Democratic Party-they did manage to make some gains against Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

I don't think I've seen anyone say this before you did? That being said, the people claiming that "this election will show a collapse in Democratic support precipitating a collapse for Biden in the midterms" maybe need to...reevaluate.

There has (as of yet) been no mass "abandonment" of the Democrats/Biden from 2020.

It's not so much that people are saying it explicitly that they are implying it. I am someone who believes that next year will be a Republican-leaning environment, but I don't believe that Republicans will gain to the extent that they did in 1994 or 2010. However, I am also not convinced that Democrats will sweep all or that they will make major gains against their Republican opponents.

[Calthrina950]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

I don't think I've seen anyone say this before you did? That being said, the people claiming that "this election will show a collapse in Democratic support precipitating a collapse for Biden in the midterms" maybe need to...reevaluate.

There has (as of yet) been no mass "abandonment" of the Democrats/Biden from 2020.

It's not so much that people are saying it explicitly that they are implying it. I am someone who believes that next year will be a Republican-leaning environment, but I don't believe that Republicans will gain to the extent that they did in 1994 or 2010. However, I am also not convinced that Democrats will sweep all or that they will make major gains against their Republican opponents.

Some are "implying" it?  As opposed to many of the blue avatars here who EXPLICITLY said the CA recall would be within 10 points?  Which is more off base?  The red avatars seem to have a better track record of predicting things lately.

Why are you getting angry with me over this? Last year's results have made me much more careful and skeptical about polls and electoral trends than I was before. I was one of those who believed Biden would be winning in a landslide. I don't want to engage in reckless predictions again, and I've been concerned about polarization for a number of years now. I think it's fair to say that we have people on both ends of the ideological spectrum who've made inaccurate or false electoral predictions, and people on both ends of the spectrum who have made correct ones. No one is perfect.

In conjunction with this, I'll also admit that I thought the California recall would be more competitive than it has turned out to be, though I was never convinced that it would actually succeed. This result provides even further confirmation to me of the polarizing trends we've seen.

[Calthrina950]

^ LOL

Have you seen my post? I don't think what Matty says here is out of the realm of plausibility. The House will still be relatively close, simply because the number of competitive districts has declined.

[Calthrina950]

What’s gonna be real telling is how this compares to Biden in 2020 and 2018.

That’s what’s concerning to me.

The mail Ins line up exactly with the final results from 2020 general.

So the result is likely to be 5-7% better for the GOP than 2020 general.

That kind of swing would be deadly for the Dems in the midterms

Stop.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1438204106330542084?s=21

Good point by Wasserman, and one that I've been trying to make. Newsom's triumph in the recall and McAuliffe's upcoming victory in Virginia (as well as Murphy's upcoming victory in New Jersey), don't necessarily negate the factors that could lead to Republicans regaining Congress next year (I'm emphasizing the important words here).

[Calthrina950]

What’s gonna be real telling is how this compares to Biden in 2020 and 2018.

That’s what’s concerning to me.

The mail Ins line up exactly with the final results from 2020 general.

So the result is likely to be 5-7% better for the GOP than 2020 general.

That kind of swing would be deadly for the Dems in the midterms

Stop.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1438204106330542084?s=21

Good point by Wasserman, and one that I've been trying to make. Newsom's triumph in the recall and McAuliffe's upcoming victory in Virginia (as well as Murphy's upcoming victory in New Jersey), don't necessarily negate the factors that could lead to Republicans regaining Congress next year (I'm emphasizing the important words here).

Didn't Cook Political also claim Dems would pick up seats in the house in 2020?  I'd rather listen to TarHeelGent's hot takes than get Wasserman links.  At least THG's are amusing.

Again, did you see my response to you from the other day? Polarization can entail that Democrats win all of the gubernatorial races this year and that they hold their ground or even improve upon it in suburban/urban areas moving to the Party, but it can also mean that they lose out in several of the marginal districts and states with only a slight swing to the right compared to 2020's results.