Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3 (user search)
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  Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3  (Read 7135 times)
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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Posts: 14,779
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« on: January 30, 2016, 07:25:30 PM »

As a reminder, DMR's final pre-Iowa poll in 2012:

Romney 24
Paul 22
Santorum 15
Gingirch 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2

"Gold standard"

They weren't far off. They just overestimated Bachmann/Huntsman and underestimated Frothy.

Not to mention 7% legitimately undecided. This year's 2% doesn't give that much hope.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,779
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2016, 01:47:16 PM »

I'm going to say that it won't be particularly narrow and Clinton will secure a good amount of delegates. It goes back to her having a better distribution of votes geographically, which is what this caucus is all about.
Sorry to be nitpicking, but I don't think this causus is about that at all. Infact, I think delegate allocation for Iowa is close to being irrelevant. The ENTIRE significance of the Iowa caucus is symbolic. I'm 100% positive that any candidate would rather win Iowa and receive ZERO of the delegates, than come in second and receive 100% of the delegates.

In other states this is true, but Iowa doesn't report votes totals on the Democratic side, so here, it is about delegate count.
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