2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

New Emnid poll for the September Federal Elections: SPD gaining !

CDU/CSU: 34%
SPD: 28%
FDP: 13%
Left: 11%
Greens: 10%
Others: 4%

Majority for SPD-Left-Greens.

Steinmeier has ruled out a coalition with Die Linke though, hasn't he?

Politicians always say a lot of things prior to the elections, the question is will he still rule it out if there is a majority ? He has to say it to strenghten his party's prospects and to avoid losing votes to the Left and Greens ...

The leader of the German JuSos (Young Socialists) meanwhile, Franziska Drohsel, said today she prefers a big Center-Left Coalition after the elections (SPD-Left-Greens), putting her at odds with Steinmeier. Let's see how this plays out ...



http://www.welt.de/politik/article3717648/Juso-Chefin-will-Koalition-von-SPD-und-Linkspartei.html

[minionofmidas]

Another Grand Coalition is exactly what the Left and the Greens need.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Brandenburg poll by Infratest-dimap for the September 27 state elections:

SPD: 34% (+2 compared with 2004 state elections)
Left: 27% (-1)
CDU: 22% (+3)
FDP: 6% (+3)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Others: 6% (-8)

Brandenburg EU-Parliament poll, also from Infratest-dimap:

SPD: 37% (+17 compared with 2004 EU elections)
Left: 23% (-8)
CDU: 23% (-1)
FDP: 6% (+1)
Greens: 6% (-2)
Others: 5% (-7)

[Tender Branson]

Big poll release by Infratest-dimap for the Sachsen and Thüringen state elections later this year and Sachsen-Anhalt in 2011:

Sachsen:

CDU: 40% (-1 compared with 2004 state elections)
Left: 19% (-5)
SPD: 15% (+5)
FDP: 10% (+4)
Greens: 7% (+2)
Nazis: 5% (-4)
Others: 4% (-1)

Thüringen:

CDU: 39% (-4 compared with 2004 state elections)
Left: 25% (-1)
SPD: 20% (+5)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Others: 5% (-3)

Sachsen-Anhalt:

CDU: 33% (-3 compared with 2006 state elections)
Left: 25% (+1)
SPD: 24% (+3)
FDP: 7% (nc)
Greens: 6% (+2)
Others: 5% (-3)

[Tender Branson]

New Mecklenburg-Vorpommern EU poll by Infratest-dimap for NDR:

CDU: 35% (-7)
SPD: 29% (+13)
Left: 16% (-6)
FDP: 9% (+5)
Greens: 5% (nc)
Others: 6% (-5)

[Lief 🗽]

Well, the SPD is apparently doing something right. Hopefully this trend holds.

[Tender Branson]

oh Lord....not this again.

Forsa has their new weekly poll out and they show a 12-point CDU/CSU advantage:

CDU/CSU: 36% (nc)
SPD: 24% (-2)
FDP: 14% (nc)
Greens: 11% (+2)
Left: 10% (nc)
Others: 5% (nc)

[Franzl]

The Bundespräsident election will take place this Saturday, in which incumbent Horst Köhler (CDU) will be taking on Gesine Schwan (SPD), and some socialist is running, too.

This is an indirect election, and the voting will take place in the Bundesversammlung, a body made up of members of parliament and certain others.



vs.



current composition of the electoral body:

CDU/CSU 497 40,6%
SPD 418 34,2%
FDP 107 8,7%
Grüne 95 7,8%
Linke 90 7,4%
Freie Wähler 10 0,8%
NPD 3 0,2%
DVU 1 0,1%
AFV 1 0,1%
SSW 1 0,1%

It is likely, but not certain, that Köhler will get the support of the "Freie Wähler".

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Bundespräsident election will take place this Saturday, in which incumbent Horst Köhler (CDU) will be taking on Gesine Schwan (SPD), and some socialist is running, too.

This would be former TV actor Peter Sodann, who was nominated by The Left after they failed to find somebody else (seriously!). Also running is Nazi musician Frank Rennicke who was nominated by NPD and DVU.

There are up to three ballots. While you'll need an absolute majority (50%+1) during the first two ballots, a mere plurality (= most votes) is sufficient during the third ballot. In 2004, Horst Köhler defeated Gesine Schwan (yeah, the same candidates all over again) on the first ballot.

[Tender Branson]

It should be quite clear by now that Köhler will be reelected with the votes of CDU/CSU/FDP/FW.

SPD/Greens/Left are quarrelling over remarks by Schwan about the former "East Germany".

She refused to call it an "Evil State" ...

[freek]

AFV 1 0,1%

I know the other parties, but what is AFV?

[Middle-aged Europe]

AFV 1 0,1%

I know the other parties, but what is AFV?

Good question, since I don't know it either. I can only assume that it stands for fraktionslose (independent/non-party) members. Then again, there should be two of them.

EDIT: Alright, I checked it. The numbers given above should be correct, except that there are two independent members (list under "AFV"? there).

[Tender Branson]

Franzl made a mistake and only listed 1223 Electoral College Members. The real breakdown is:

On May 23, the German President will be elected by Electoral College, the Bundesversammlung.

The current Electoral College consists of all Members (612) of the German Parliament (Bundestag) and an equal number of members from the 16 states, apportioned by population.

Therefore 1.224 members will elect the next German President.

The party breakdown is as followed:

Parliament

CDU/CSU: 223
SPD: 222
FDP: 61
The Left: 53
Greens: 51
Independents: 2 (Henry Nitzsche & Gert Winkelmeier)

16 States

CDU/CSU: 274
SPD: 196
FDP: 46
Greens: 44
The Left: 37
Freie Wähler: 10 (Bavaria)
NPD: 3 (2 Saxony, 1 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)
DVU: 1 (Brandenburg)
SSW: 1 (Schleswig-Holstein)

Total

CDU/CSU: 497
SPD: 418
FDP: 107
Greens: 95
The Left: 90
Freie Wähler: 10 (Bavaria)
NPD: 3 (2 Saxony, 1 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)
Independents: 2 (Henry Nitzsche & Gert Winkelmeier)
DVU: 1 (Brandenburg)
SSW: 1 (Schleswig-Holstein)

http://www.bundestag.de/parlament/wahlen/146/uebersicht.pdf

[minionofmidas]

There are no parliamentary parties in the Bundesversammlung, so I don't quite see the rationale behind combining the CDU and CSU tallies.

[freek]

Good question, since I don't know it either. I can only assume that it stands for fraktionslose (independent/non-party) members. Then again, there should be two of them.

EDIT: Alright, I checked it. The numbers given above should be correct, except that there are two independent members (list under "AFV"? there).

Thank you. With this information I've found out what AFV stands for. It is the new party (movement?) of Bundestag member Henry Nitzsche (ex-CDU), the "Wählervereinigung Arbeit, Familie Vaterland": http://www.arbeit-familie-vaterland.de/

[Middle-aged Europe]

Good question, since I don't know it either. I can only assume that it stands for fraktionslose (independent/non-party) members. Then again, there should be two of them.

EDIT: Alright, I checked it. The numbers given above should be correct, except that there are two independent members (list under "AFV"? there).

Thank you. With this information I've found out what AFV stands for. It is the new party (movement?) of Bundestag member Henry Nitzsche (ex-CDU), the "Wählervereinigung Arbeit, Familie Vaterland": http://www.arbeit-familie-vaterland.de/

Doesn't even have an article in the German Wikipedia.

[minionofmidas]

Lol.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lol.

DoubleLOL.

"Saxon bravery stops Muslim flood". A statement of particular oddity considering that only the tiniest fraction of the Saxon population is actually Muslim (or immigrants for that matter). But then again, opposition to immigrants doesn't necessarily require the existence of immigrants.

After having taken a look at his webste, I'm not sure whether Nitzsche will vote for Köhler (despite Nitzsche's declaration of support) or Rennicke. However, if Rennicke gets more than four votes tomorrow we'll know where it possibly came from.

[minionofmidas]

Double LOL.

No, that one would be a *vomit*.

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Hardly. Half the Saxon CDU backbench is ready to cast protest votes for Nazis on procedural matters with a secret ballot. As they have demonstrated time and time again over the last few years (and once almost accidentally brought down a prime minister before they wanted to). The only thing that's unusual about Nitzsche is that he was kicked out.

[Middle-aged Europe]

First ballot has started...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Horst Köhler was re-elected on the first ballot.


Results:

Horst Köhler - 613
Gesine Schwan - 503
Peter Sodann - 91
Frank Rennicke - 4
Abstentions - 10
Invalid votes - 2
Absent electors - 1

[Hash]

And, lol Wikipedia:

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So. The Nitzsche guy didn't vote for the Nazi. Who is the other person who voted for the Leftie? One person in the CDU-CSU+FDP+FW coalition didn't vote for Köhler. SPD+Greenies gives 513, so I assume those 10 are the 10 abstaining.

[minionofmidas]

And, lol Wikipedia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So. The Nitzsche guy didn't vote for the Nazi. Who is the other person who voted for the Leftie? One person in the CDU-CSU+FDP+FW coalition didn't vote for Köhler. SPD+Greenies gives 513, so I assume those 10 are the 10 abstaining.

There probably were two or three secret crossvoters either way. Probably more from the left to Köhler - doesn't really make sense to assume all blank/invalid ballots to be left ones.

The absent guy (due to illness) was a Left Party Bundestag member.

[minionofmidas]

A little amused that Sodann got two more votes than the Left Party's delegates. He's hardly been a stellar candidate.

Of course, some discontent backbencher may have been thinking along the lines of "I'll vote Sodann as a protest on the first ballot, come back for any later ones".

[Franzl]

Anyway, I'm extremely pleased the Köhler was re-elected. He's definitely one of my favorite politicians (if you can even call him one) at the present time.