COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I've updated my cumulative graphs of cases and deaths in the big five Western European countries, based on a five-day weighted average. 

I've also added a line for the US for purpose of comparison. (America has almost the exact same population as these five nations combined.)  The US has now surpassed them in daily new cases, but still only has about 1/3 the number of daily new deaths.

[Bidenworth2020]

Am I the only one who was genuinely horrified by that press conference? JFC.

[Calthrina950]

Erm. Washington DC, we have a problem that you might want to do something about...

https://twitter.com/SBAJovita/status/1246218482762514433

There are about 30 million small businesses in the USA...

If the small businesses that have gotten loans so far are representative of the average small business, and each small business got a loan equal to the average sized loan so far, that would come out to a total of $9,255,556,190,367.37 in loans (30,000,000/17,503*5,400,000,000 if you want to check the math). That is $9.26 trillion... But only $350 billion is budgeted for the program in total...

That means there are only enough loans for something like 3.8% of all the small businesses in the USA...

Let's say that this rough estimate math is off though substantially, by an order of magnitude. In that case, there would be enough loans for 38% of all small businesses.

Which is not remotely enough!!! What on earth were they thinking in how they set this up???

The stimulus bill passed by Congress, in spite of the vast sum allocated to it, seems like it will do little to help the vast majority of Americans.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/3 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

4/2 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | ↑18.97%)

4/3 (Today):

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | ↑21.76%)

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest stats have been provided from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Growth in Active Cases for the following countries is provided:


 
United Kingdom




France




Germany




Spain




Italy




USA




Growth Lines Only in Active Cases




USA vs Europe (Spain + Italy + UK + Germany + France)


The growth in UK continues at a faster rate.

The recoveries are now coming in strong from the European mainland which makes the Active Case data more accurate for analysis.

France has had the flattest curve of the European countries in terms of Active Case numbers and has experienced a fall in the last two days in growth.

Italy appears to be past the worst of it and growth has tended downwards since March 21.

Germany has had two strong days in growth, whilst France has had a turnaround in Active Cases after growing strongly 5 days ago.

Spain numbers look particularly encouraging with the 4th successive drop in 'Active Case' growth meaning the worst appears to be behind it in terms of exponential spread. I am confident that the change in Spanish growth (blue line on the Spain graph) will continue to decline further on this graph tomorrow after peaking back on March 26.

US growth is the strongest with 32,000 'New Cases' reported in the last 24 hours.

The interesting thing about mainland Europe (neglecting Swiss, Portugal, Netherlands etc) is that the numbers appear to have peaked in terms of growth rates in Active Cases.

Only the UK continues to grow at a faster rate on its initial curve upwards.

Keep on keepin' on....

[JA]

Administration says it will reimburse hospitals for treating uninsured coronavirus patients

The Trump administration announced Friday that the federal government will reimburse hospitals treating uninsured patients for the novel coronavirus using funds allocated in a the recent relief package passed by Congress.

"Today, I can so proudly announce that hospitals and health care providers treating uninsured coronavirus patients will be reimbursed by the fed government using funds from the economic relief packed Congress passed last month," President Trump said at a White House briefing.

"This should alleviate any concerns uninsured Americans may have seeking the coronavirus treatment," he added.

[...]

Azar said the funds would be sent to providers through the same mechanism used for testing. He also said that providers would be forbidden from balance billing the uninsured as a condition for receiving the reimbursements and would be reimbursed at Medicare rates.

[Beet]

OK,

You have countries like Spain, Italy, Germany and France daily growth well under 4,000 for the 3 per. moving average but worldometers shows growth of well over 4,000 for all of them. How does that compute?
Spain +7,134
Germany +6,365
France +5,233
Italy +4,585

[GeorgiaModerate]

Our idiotic governor has REOPENED Georgia beaches.

[Dr. Arch]

Our idiotic governor has REOPENED Georgia beaches.

Sigh...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1246240181440540672

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

You have countries like Spain, Italy, Germany and France daily growth well under 4,000 for the 3 per. moving average but worldometers shows growth of well over 4,000 for all of them. How does that compute?
Spain +7,134
Germany +6,365
France +5,233
Italy +4,585

Thanks Beet for the question, terrific question by the way. And as the only person on this forum to even remotely predict the monumental scale of the COVID-19 pandemic in it's current form, you do deserve a thorough and considered response. In January 2020, when numbers were not available, and a few cases were isolated to China, I was only expecting SARS 2.0 and fell ~99% short in the predicted scale of the numbers involved.

If only Donald Trump had employed you in the Corona-virus Task Force in January, the USA would be in a stronger position today.

Let's take China as an example. Here is a TOTAL case graph.



China TOTAL Cases




China ACTIVE Cases

As we approach the peak, which is now the case in the countries that you have quoted, there is a big difference between growth in TOTAL cases vs ACTIVE cases.

All of my analysis is using ACTIVE cases as I am trying to model the Active Bell curve. The predictions that I make in the next few days will be on fitting curves from positively skewed bell shaped curves like the one in South Korea, China, 1918 US cities etc. Nearly all populations in a viral flu epidemic follow a positively skewed bell shaped curve in terms of their ACTIVE cases.

The data you are quoting is TOTAL cases.

When the bell curve peaks, the ACTIVE case growth will logically be zero.

On the same day, the TOTAL case growth will still be significant. That is, the TOTAL case graph will never go down.

Hence the discrepancy.

Here are my numbers used for the 'ACTIVE Case' growth dataset:

Spain: +2,514
Germany: +4,062
France: +1,553
Italy: +2,339

People who have died or recovered from Corona-virus have been removed from these numbers compared to your list.

Then the graphs have 3 point averaging as you mentioned. The problem with 5 point averaging is that it moves the peaks over 2-3 days to the right.

But 5 point averaging does illustrate that in mainland European, growth rates are now in decline.

In the coming week, this type of ACTIVE case analysis will show when the peak of the bell curve is reached, or is predicted to reach a peak, in each country.

[Badger]

Am I the only one who was genuinely horrified by that press conference? JFC.

No, you are among the 55 ish percent of the population who do not find this normal or acceptable behavior

[GP270watch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1246240181440540672

 That is 66% for a random group that seems very high.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1246240181440540672

 That is 66% for a random group that seems very high.

If that's true, that would be excellent news.  If it winds up that the vast majority of infections are asymptomatic, it makes the potential for widespread serious illness and deaths a lot less.  Let's be willing to give positive developments the attention they deserve in the face of this!

[Bidenworth2020]

Am I the only one who was genuinely horrified by that press conference? JFC.

No, you are among the 55 ish percent of the population who do not find this normal or acceptable behavior

More than usual though... at times he was borderline incoherent.

[Badger]

So since this is a thread for essentially all things coronavirus related, another chapter in my business is ongoing quest to seek Financial relief. So my law partner , God bless him, first called our bank at 9 this morning as scheduled. He got an automated message to call back at 2. He did so and then got an automated message to call back at 2:30.

Upon doing so he got an automated message saying to call back later. He called every two to three minutes for over 45 minutes before they even put him on hold. Let me reiterate that in his words. What type of f****** timeline do we live in where one celebrates the accomplishment of being put on hold?

And then, then, after waiting on hold for an hour, he gets another automated message saying we are experiencing difficulties processing your call, please try back again later.

And hangs up on him. The fact that he did not throw his phone against the wall proves he's a much better man than I.

At least he was able to get immediately back on hold when he called back a minute later oh, so hooray for small victories. He's planning on ordering pizza and staying by the phone so that we don't have to wait until Monday which could put us further back in the line of applicants. What a trooper.

This is what small businesses across this country are dealing with. And we've been proactive as hell in jumping on relief applications. God help anyone that's been tied up doing actual, you know, work to earn money rather than my partner spending a significant part of his work day the last couple weeks, along with my office manager, filling out forms and reading online is to Avenues we can pursue.

Update. I took over after my partner threw in the towel, justifiably after the hours of garbage went through. Sat on hold for 20 minutes, got cut off at 6. Called back, no further calls outside of their 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. business hours. Pandemic? What pandemic?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Per capita, April 3 end of day:

Number of cases:
60% Blue: 10 - 15 per 100k
40% Blue: 15 - 20 per 100k
30% Blue: 20 - 30 per 100k
30% Red: 30 - 40 per 100k
40% Red: 40 - 50 per 100k
50% Red: 50 - 75 per 100K
60% Red: 75 - 100 per 100k
80% Red: 100 - 250 per 100k
90% Red: 250+ per 100k

Per capita, April 2 end of day:

Number of cases:
60% Blue: 10 - 15 per 100k
40% Blue: 15 - 20 per 100k
30% Blue: 20 - 30 per 100k
30% Red: 30 - 40 per 100k
40% Red: 40 - 50 per 100k
50% Red: 50 - 75 per 100K
60% Red: 75 - 100 per 100k
80% Red: 100 - 250 per 100k
90% Red: 250+ per 100k

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Am I the only one who was genuinely horrified by that press conference? JFC.

My capacity for horror is nearing exhaustion. I'm mostly down to just disgust at the orange waste of humanity, and anger at his enablers.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Per capita, April 3 end of day:

Number of cases:
60% Blue: 10 - 15 per 100k
40% Blue: 15 - 20 per 100k
30% Blue: 20 - 30 per 100k
30% Red: 30 - 40 per 100k
40% Red: 40 - 50 per 100k
50% Red: 50 - 75 per 100K
60% Red: 75 - 100 per 100k
80% Red: 100 - 250 per 100k
90% Red: 250+ per 100k

Per capita, April 2 end of day:

Number of cases:
60% Blue: 10 - 15 per 100k
40% Blue: 15 - 20 per 100k
30% Blue: 20 - 30 per 100k
30% Red: 30 - 40 per 100k
40% Red: 40 - 50 per 100k
50% Red: 50 - 75 per 100K
60% Red: 75 - 100 per 100k
80% Red: 100 - 250 per 100k
90% Red: 250+ per 100k

I appreciate what you're doing, but we need to keep in mind that these numbers are controlled by testing (because it's all we have), and that testing isn't being done rigorously or in sufficient volume. Eventually death counts will probably be a better proxy, but even those are obfuscated in various ways.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I appreciate what you're doing, but we need to keep in mind that these numbers are controlled by testing (because it's all we have), and that testing isn't being done rigorously or in sufficient volume. Eventually death counts will probably be a better proxy, but even those are obfuscated in various ways.

That is not matching the reality of the situation.

Dr Birx said yesterday that her analysis of the testing in the USA correlated with the hospitalisation rates and mortality rates in each region where she looked at the data.

She conducted her analysis of each dataset independently, and said there was enough granularity in each dataset to draw a consistent conclusion. Testing is therefore working and it is not overstating or understating the rates subsequently seen in the hospitals.

Dr Birx stated that based on analysis completed on 50% of the data, she has not yet seen any anomalies thus far where data from testing does not match the stated infection rates and subsequent hospital outcomes.

Your comment on death rates is accurate and would be more applicable in a country like Iran where the testing is suspect to begin with.

[Storr]

In terms of raw numbers of case gains and deaths, today will be the worst one yet, unfortunately

I've been following these projections and they've been a good predictor of what's coming so far.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

Their projections are for 93,500 US deaths? Christ...

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Based on data available here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Top growth rates in the world are for new countries entering the curve:

1   72.2%   Cameroon
2   28.8%   Kuwait
3   28.3%   Serbia
4   26.5%   UAE
5   23.7%   Palestine
6   23.7%   Niger
7   22.6%   Algeria
8   22.2%   Peru
9   22.2%   Channel Islands
10   22.1%   Paraguay

(min cases: 50)

In terms of countries with little to no infection rates of Corona-virus, that has been done for us already:



Normally I would say that these are the places where one should feel safe, but not on this occasion.

[Del Tachi]

Surprised this hasn't been talked about yet in the thread, but Walmart an Target are rolling out new social distancing measures tomorrow limiting stores to 20% capacity.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1246277075100749824

Cities and counties are also starting to implement similar guidelines, like these new ones in Terrebone Parish, Louisiana (pop. 115k) that, among other things:

• All retail stores, including grocery stores and pharmacies, limited to 20% of fire marshal capacity
• Retail stores only open from 6AM to 8PM
• Shopping trips should only be made for "essential" items
• Only one person per family should go to the store at a time, if possible
• A 10PM to 5AM curfew is already in effect

I just don't understand the calculus here.  It's just a constant escalation of restrictions.  You can always find a way to be more aggressive in social distancing, but after a certain point the marginal costs exceed the marginal benefits.  Unfortunately, the sensationalist media and #FlattenTheCurve cultists will have these sorts of restrictions as their main raison d'etre by the middle of next week.

Panic buying is already a *major, major problem (and so far is actually a bigger problem than anything we've seen on the healthcare side).  Now the police are going to start enforcing a 20% limit?  What's the logical outcome here?  A bunch of people waiting several hours in line to buy groceries, contributing only to further panic and more runs on the supermarkets (which will lead to even longer lines in the best case scenario, violence in the worst).

Not to sound too alarmist here - but this is the *truly worrying stuff, not ICU/ventilator shortages.  The role of government in this situation should be to step-in and make sure essential retail operations remain open and accessible to all Americans.  If that means making people assume a bit more risk when they go out shopping, its a risk that's actually worth it in this case. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Holyoke Soldiers' Home, a well-known and previously well-regarded veterans' nursing home and long-term care hospital here in Western Massachusetts, had a badly mismanaged outbreak and is now being investigated by a Baker-appointed independent counsel. According to the Boston Globe the people running this place didn't isolate a confirmed case, which a friend of mine pointed out to me would be unacceptably negligent even with a normal flu, so hopefully the management of HSH will die in a fire in terms of legal liability.

It's obviously not acceptable to treat any old person this way, but there's something especially sickening when it's done to veterans given the self-congratulatory pieties about THE TROOPS in our society and political rhetoric.

ETA: Apparently HSH had been requesting money from the state to relieve understaffing for the past five years, meaning that there might be state-level budget issues at play, in which case that implicates Baker himself. He may be moderate On The Issues , but when it comes to the nuts and bolts of allocating funds and appointing personnel, he's a cold-harded Scrooge just like the rest of his depraved cult of a party (and more than a few Democrats too).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

France just added 18,000 new cases to their total, which is now completely throwing off the daily numbers.