COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Even Jake Tapper of CNN admits the obvious.



https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1328457745620668430

Trump sat on his toilet tweeting and played golf while Pfizer and Moderna did all the hard work. All Trump did was assure companies that whichever one came up with a vaccine first would be able to sell millions of doses to the US government. This is exactly what Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, or even Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Romney would have done. It's nothing special that Trump deserves credit for.

Sigh. Yes, but the same applies to the most failing of US (that are similar to basically most Europe countries). They were exactly what would have happened in with Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, or even Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Romney. It's nothing special that Trump deserves blame for.

The possible diffs against (D) and even som (R):
- the flights from China would be "banned" later
- no Stimulus as generous as Trump's (gee! Imagine D with Mitch's Senate and likely R House).
- more "follow the science" rhetoric and rhetoric only
- muh competent administration
- possibly, a national mask mandate

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

One thing to be at least a bit optimistic about is it seems like at least the rate of growth of new cases may have been going down somewhat at least over the past day or 2, so at least we may not be accelerating further than we already were. If we are lucky, maybe that is a real trend change, and not just a blip.

On the other hand:

a) I wonder if this might have partly to do with weather. It seems like in a lot of areas it warmed up a bit temporarily around 7-10 days or so ago (approximately coincident with the lag time for new cases to be expected to show up) but then got cooler again. To the degree that there is a relation between temperature and spread (this definitely seems to be the case) that may be partially responsible, and we should worry about current spread with lower temperatures.

b) At a certain point the number of tests starts to be a constraint in at least some areas, despite the overall increases in test availability since the early days of the pandemic. There are some states especially in the plains/upper midwest with very high positivity rates, where they would keep on finding more cases if they were not running into testing capacity issues with very high positivity rates. The higher the positivity rates get, the more this becomes a relevant factor.

Probably herd immunity starts to kick in. US herd immunity is ~15% right now. In SD and ND for example it's ~25% (40% in ~2 weeks), while it's just 10% in WY.

If you assume that R with ~moderate restriction is R_moderate~1.3 than R_eff in SD and ND is 1.3*0.75 ~<1, while in WY R_eff~1.3*0.9 = 1.2


Data is taken from a site recommended by Nate Silver.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1329223132159356928

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: Racist Anti-Poor School Closure

https://www.unicef.org/media/86881/file/Averting-a-lost-covid-generation-world-childrens-day-data-and-advocacy-brief-2020.pdf
Averting a lost COVID generation

Keeping schools open  during the current COVID-19 resurgence

As some countries experience a resurgence in COVID-19 infection, discussion has been raised recently on whether schools should be closed again.20 Evidence shows that the net benefits of keeping schools open outweigh the costs of closing them. 

Schools are not a main driver of community transmission. Data from 191 countries collected from February to September 2020 show no consistent association between school reopening status and COVID-19 infection rates.21 An assessment of the role of schools in COVID-19 transmission was conducted by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in 31 countries in July 2020. It concluded that child-to-child transmission in schools was uncommon and not the primary cause of COVID-19 in children who were infected during the time they attended school.22 However, it is important to note that higher education institutions have played a role in community transmission in many countries.

Children are more likely to get the virus outside of school settings. There is a much higher risk of children being infected with COVID-19 if there is an outbreak in the community. A study by the British Government found that infection rates among students and teachers did not increase following school reopenings in the summer and that localized outbreaks correlated with regional outbreaks, not with school opening.23 Data released by Brown University show low levels of infection among students and teachers in the United States. Tracking infections over two weeks from 31 August when schools began to reopen, it shows that only 0.77 per cent of students and 0.16 per cent of school staff had a confirmed or suspected case of the coronavirus.24 In addition, schools have put in place important mitigation measures to reduce transmission risks. These efforts should continue to be supported.

School closures can lead to drastically negative outcomes for children. Closing schools exposes children to multiple risks. The longer schools are closed, the more children suffer from extensive learning losses with long- term negative impacts, including future income and health. Depending on their age, gender, and disability or socio-economic status many children (especially adolescents) do not return to school after long closures and many more are expected to suffer permanent losses to their learning. In addition, children rely on schools for nutrition, psychosocial support and health services.

While it's more about low-income countries, it applies to poorer, often minority share of US.

Basically all European Countries, including such heavily hit as France, UK, Netherlands, Sweden and Belgium keep their school open as much as possible. France has almost 3 times more death/per capita on weekly basis than US.

Seven-day rolling average of new deaths (per million)
France - 8.7
USA - 3.5
NY - 1.4 (sic!)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/despite-coronavirus-surge-european-schools-stay-open-11605349800
Despite Coronavirus Surge, European Schools Stay Open
Most of Europe sees large downsides to shutting schools again, despite the risk of more infections

While schools in some U.S. states are going back to remote learning, European countries are mostly persevering with open schools despite high coronavirus infection rates, believing—for now—that the cost to children of closing classrooms outweighs the health risks.

In parts of the U.S., many schools that shut down in the spring never reopened, and others are closing again. New York City is also poised to close schools if cases continue to rise.

By contrast, by the end of September schools across Europe had reopened, and most governments are determined to keep it that way—even though the continent is grappling with a powerful second wave of infections.

Part of the reason is that it is unclear how effective closing schools really is, with scientific studies reaching different conclusions about how important students and teachers are in driving contagion. Meanwhile, policy makers have concluded that the social damage caused by prolonged school closures was too much to bear, particularly for less-privileged families with working parents.

Stop lying that Wealthy White Virtue Signaling Democrats (whose children goes to luxurious private schools) care about poor and minorities. They don't.

New York City is closing its entire public school system BEFORE closing gyms, bars and inside restaurants open (though with restriction and probably soon to be closed). Most private will remain open.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/outrage-nyc-schools-closed-covid

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1328904038520418305
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fact-check-coronavirus-vaccine-could-come-year-trump-says-experts-n1207411
Fact check: Coronavirus vaccine could come this year, Trump says. Experts say he needs a 'miracle' to be right.
“There’s a lot of things that could go wrong,” one expert said.

“I think we’re going to have a vaccine by the end of the year,” he told reporters later in the day.

But experts say that the development, testing and production of a vaccine for the public is still at least 12 to 18 months off, and that anything less would be a medical miracle.

“I think it’s possible you could see a vaccine in people’s arms next year — by the middle or end of next year. But this is unprecedented, so it’s hard to predict,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

[...]

Dr. Walter Orenstein, a professor at Emory University and the associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said a vaccine in less than a year would be “miracle.”

While technically possible, he added, it is unlikely.

“There’s a lot of things that could go wrong,” Orenstein said.

Dr. Stanley Plotkin, credited with inventing a rubella vaccine in 1964, said developing a vaccine in a year to a year and half was “feasible,” but dependent on the efficacy of the vaccines currently in development and on the ability to mass produce them.

“In the best of circumstances, we should have a vaccine — or let's say vaccines — between 12 and 18 months," he said. "Whether those circumstances will be the best or not, we don’t know."

https://twitter.com/carolynryan/status/1328790546979106818

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-covid-surge-u-s-restrictions-11605466754
Covid Is Resurging, and This Time It’s Everywhere
Pervasive spread in smaller communities fuels nationwide case record, though mortality rates are lower than in the spring

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/11/18/state-sanctioned-segregation-californias-school-closure-debate-boils-over-1336593
‘State-sanctioned segregation’: California’s school closure debate boils over

Pandemic politics have reached a boiling point in California’s school reopening debate.

A hands-off approach by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and public pressure from powerful labor unions has led the state’s biggest city districts to keep schools shuttered, leaving most of California’s 6 million public schoolchildren learning at home. Even San Francisco, which has had one of the lowest infection rates for any U.S. city, hasn’t attempted in-person teaching.

As the pandemic wears on, more Democrats are sounding the alarm after staying silent earlier this fall. They are increasingly distressed that California's approach has widened the gap between low-income communities of color and wealthier white families.

Frustrations hit a new level in October, when Newsom said his own children had returned to private school in Sacramento — while public school students in the surrounding neighborhoods remained home. Now leaders in the governor's own party are turning on him, saying the status quo has left the state with crisis-level inequity.

California's system amounts to "state-sanctioned segregation," Patrick O'Donnell (D-Long Beach), the chair of the state Assembly Education Committee, said in an interview — a frank declaration for a Democrat consistently supported by the California Teachers Association.

“Some kids get to go and some don’t. That's not what California stands for," he said. “I think we need to move faster but remain thoughtful.”

Well, if he said it before the election, I'd respect him. As I were saying for weeks now, White Wealthy Libs has been screwing poor/minority kids to screw Trump. Gee, most people of this forum didn't give a  either, though. The few people that shared my concerns were from Europe...

A lost generation of millions of kids.

The debate is complicated in the nation's most populous state, where the divide between rich and poor remains stark. For all of the wealth concentrated in the Silicon Valley and Hollywood, nearly 60 percent of California public schoolchildren live in low-income households that qualify for subsidized meals. Districts are reporting sharp increases in students failing, especially in lower-income neighborhoods.

Gee, Hollywood.

The most bluest (populous) states CA and NY are the ones who screwing poor kids most. Would be ironic and fun, if i wasn't so god damn terrible.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.schools.nyc.gov/school-year-20-21/return-to-school-2020/health-and-safety/covid-19-testing/covid-testing-results




https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-18/private-schools-chart-own-path-as-de-blasio-shuts-public-system
Private Schools Chart Own Path as De Blasio Shuts NYC System

Multiple New York private schools are staying open, at least for now, while Mayor Bill de Blasio closes all public schools as Covid-19 cases rise across the city.

Browning, Nightingale-Bamford, Collegiate, Spence and Trinity are among the independent schools in Manhattan that said they will hold in-person classes Thursday. Allen-Stevenson, Chapin and Columbia Grammar & Preparatory also will remain open heading into the Thanksgiving recess, according to parents of students at those schools.

The contrasting fates of school children shows how the wealthiest New Yorkers have been more insulated from the pandemic than most everyone else. Annual tuition at private schools can be more than $55,000. Many private schools opened for classes weeks before the public school buildings opened. The schools have had the resources to spend on mitigation such as renting additional space.

"State-sanctioned segregation"

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Which county in the US has the highest death rate per capita?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Data from Europe, but should be same'ish in US as well.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-deaths-in-europe-are-overwhelmingly-among-those-over-60-11606053600
Covid Deaths in Europe Are Overwhelmingly Among Those Over 60
Survival rates improve modestly, but disease still takes the elderly, and more men

LONDON—Europe’s older citizens are bearing the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic’s second wave in the region.

People over 60 make up more than nine in 10 fatalities linked to Covid-19 since the start of August, figures show, with more men than women succumbing to it. The virus has now claimed more than 1.3 million lives world-wide.

The pattern, similar to that observed in Europe’s first wave of the pandemic as well as in the U.S., highlights the danger the virus continues to pose to older age groups and the difficulty of shielding the most vulnerable if the pandemic spreads more broadly, researchers say.

The policy conclusion: If the virus gets out of control in the community, there isn’t a practical way to prevent older people from catching it.

Doctors say they are seeing modest improvements in survival rates among all age groups, as their armory of treatments expands and their knowledge of the disease deepens.

“On the ground, the demographic is pretty similar to what it was,” said Tom Wingfield, an infectious-disease physician in Liverpool, England. “But people are having better outcomes,” he said.

Demographic data on all deaths in Europe isn’t available. But an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of around 78,000 deaths in an ECDC database of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 shows that in both the first and second waves more than 90% of deaths were in those age 60 and over.

Those over 80 years old account for a slightly higher proportion of second-wave deaths, with 67% of fatalities in that age group from Aug. 3 to Nov. 15. That compares with 60% for the year through July 31. Men made up 56% of all deaths across both waves.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden 5 days ago:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/526787-biden-vows-he-will-not-implement-a-nationwide-shutdown
Biden vows he will not implement a nationwide shutdown

"I’m not going to shut down the economy, period. I’m going to shut down the virus," Biden said. "I’ll say it again. No national shutdown."

[...]

“We discussed the implementation of a national mask mandate — 10 governors, Democrats and Republicans, have imposed requirements and recognized the need for universal masking,” Biden said. “North, south, east and west. It’s not a political statement. It’s a patriotic duty.”

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Data from Europe, but should be same'ish in US as well.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-deaths-in-europe-are-overwhelmingly-among-those-over-60-11606053600
Covid Deaths in Europe Are Overwhelmingly Among Those Over 60
Survival rates improve modestly, but disease still takes the elderly, and more men

LONDON—Europe’s older citizens are bearing the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic’s second wave in the region.

People over 60 make up more than nine in 10 fatalities linked to Covid-19 since the start of August, figures show, with more men than women succumbing to it. The virus has now claimed more than 1.3 million lives world-wide.

The pattern, similar to that observed in Europe’s first wave of the pandemic as well as in the U.S., highlights the danger the virus continues to pose to older age groups and the difficulty of shielding the most vulnerable if the pandemic spreads more broadly, researchers say.

The policy conclusion: If the virus gets out of control in the community, there isn’t a practical way to prevent older people from catching it.

Doctors say they are seeing modest improvements in survival rates among all age groups, as their armory of treatments expands and their knowledge of the disease deepens.

“On the ground, the demographic is pretty similar to what it was,” said Tom Wingfield, an infectious-disease physician in Liverpool, England. “But people are having better outcomes,” he said.

Demographic data on all deaths in Europe isn’t available. But an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of around 78,000 deaths in an ECDC database of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 shows that in both the first and second waves more than 90% of deaths were in those age 60 and over.

Those over 80 years old account for a slightly higher proportion of second-wave deaths, with 67% of fatalities in that age group from Aug. 3 to Nov. 15. That compares with 60% for the year through July 31. Men made up 56% of all deaths across both waves.

Statistically, one average death from Covid-19 is probably equal to about 1/5th-1/10th of a death in a normal epidemic in terms of years of life lost.

Perhaps, even less so. The average life expectancy at the age of 80 is ~8 years in US (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7565998/), but those who die are NOT average. I wouldn't be surprise, if most of them hade 0-2 years life expectancy (~1 year on average, perhaps?).

It is just my speculation, though. We'll find it out in years to come. What we already know, though, is how poor kids effected of (D) school closure throughout the rest of their lives.

TDS cost kids' future.


https://twitter.com/hannah_natanson/status/1331236497308180480
https://twitter.com/hannah_natanson/status/1331238704099291140


And if you think, the kids will catch up... most/large share of the most vulnerable won't. There are a lot of rigorous studies that say that damage will be permanent. It will lead to more drop-outs, worse marks, worse academic and job carrier and overall a worse quality of life for (tens of???) millions kids. It means also shorter life expectancy. And the more time schools are closed, the more damage and the more difficult for kids to catch up.

Especially for poor kids.
Especially for minority kids.
Especially for kids with disabilities.
Especially with Math and English, two arguably most important subjects.

With other words it won't significantly effect the kids of White Wealthy Libs (that is the owners of Democrat Party), but it will effect greatly the kids of the backbone of the Democrat Party.

Remember, it didn't need to be like that. It didn't happen at such large scale in Europe in Spring, despite them being hit much harder than US. And that didn't happen in Europe after summer school breaks at all. Science (at least since May/June) say it should NOT be happening. It was a political decision against Science. All this is due to #resist Bad Orange's call to reopen schools. If you voted for these people, it's on you. No ifs or buts.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What does this idiot argue against?

That school closure leads to higher rate of failing in school (esp Math and Reading)?
That higher rate of failing in school leads to lower college/high-school enrollment and/or worse job opportunities?
That lower college/high-school enrollment/worse job leads to worse quality of life?
That worse quality of life leads to lower life expectancy?

Ugh, these LiberalX...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Damn, it's like, I don't know, projection or something

https://twitter.com/dpakman/status/1330998265693802497
Literally incapable of imagining an opposition that doesn't think like you

I didn't know you liked / followed / read David Pakman!

Virginia is woke / based / etc etc.

So Ted Cruz thought, that Democrats would re-open schools helping poor kids, once Biden has won? His naïveté is almost adorable.

No, TDS is a strong within Democrat Party. They can't concede... that Trump's was right and that you have to re-open schools. They can't concede, even if it means screwing kids. I'd guess, they will wait until vaccination starts.

If Media do their jobs (probably they won't), people will punish Democrats in next election(s).

https://twitter.com/powellnyt/status/1329615411319615489

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1371955137313398784
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1371959892177788928
Well, yeah, Nate. I would add that a) "media and other elites" knew exactly how it was and purposely lied to steal election (and they succeed in deceiving enough people to Trump to lose). b) "Trump's behavior" had abysmal role in it. In these parts where a president had power to do, he used it. He tried to close the border - would be way more effective, if Dems, instead of critizing and obstruct it, would cheer it and demanding more closure (against Europe and interstate). He force Mitch to get 2T Bill through Senate, though he couldn't force Pelosi to get through second 1.7T Bill; his disdain to muh fiscal conservatism facilitated for Biden as well (much more difficult to complain about Biden, when Trump sent a lot of $$$ to Americans and brag about it). And he got vaccines* done and get them to US. He tried, but, unfortunately, mostly failed to keep public schools open because of MSM and D's anti-science - muh orange bad, school dangerous.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1371515556738777093


Hm. Hm. Hmmmm...


So one side chose to kill the economy and to close the public (=poor/minority) schools, while the other side tried to keep it open as far as possible and it's still "hard to find a consistent pattern in policy success or failure".

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re:School Re-openings

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/maryland-schools-failing-grades/2021/03/22/fe33bc86-8b21-11eb-9423-04079921c915_story.html
Maryland schools report surge in failure rates for second quarter

Failure rates surged in Maryland schools during the second quarter, with new data showing percentages doubling or tripling in key classes in most of the state’s 24 school districts.

The numbers are another sign of the academic toll of the coronavirus pandemic, which has claimed more than 540,000 lives in the United States and shuttered some schools for as long as a year.

With school systems reeling as never before, many students have been learning virtually for all or much of the past year. In Maryland, attendance numbers are down, but course grades provide a far more alarming picture of how students are faring.

“Virtual learning clearly has its limits,” she said in a statement. “That is particularly true for students with special needs, our English learners and those from families who are economically disadvantaged.”

Goldson said Prince George’s is using its data to better support English learners and African American middle and high school students, while also looking at one-on-one literacy and math tutoring, summer interventions, and high school instruction paced to individual needs.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fewer-children-are-attending-school-remotely-and-in-person-11612521003
Fewer Children Are Attending School, Remotely and In Person
Students of color, those with special needs and elementary school children miss school more often in some states

Limited data from some states and districts shows that students learning remotely—especially students of color, special needs and elementary school students—were attending school less often compared with their in-school classmates.

The data deepens concerns that the lengthy school closures will widen the pre-pandemic academic achievement gaps between poor students and others.

About 56% of school districts were exclusively remote as of Dec. 18, according to the Center on Reinventing Public Education, a nonpartisan research group at the University of Washington focused on improving public education in the U.S. The barriers for students learning online continue to include problems with internet connectivity and access to devices.

At Providence Public Schools in Rhode Island, where 30% of the district’s 22,600 students opted to stay remote in the fall, students learning remotely routinely attended class less often, especially younger students, and received a larger number of poor grades for incomplete classwork, said district superintendent Harrison Peters. About 85% of the students in the district qualify for free or reduced lunch.

The chronic absence rate across the 33 districts analyzed more than doubled for sixth and seventh-graders to 16.1% and 21.7%, respectively. Across all grades, absentee rates jumped the most among Black and Latino students in December, increasing to 30% and 21%, up from 18.4% and 12.8% respectively, from the same time a year earlier.

In Massachusetts, 41% of students who are physically back in school buildings full time strongly agree that they learn a lot everyday, compared with 16% of students who are exclusively remote, according to a Gallup survey of 1,000 high-school students.

Roughly a third of students learning entirely remote or in hybrid arrangements say they are falling behind this year, while 8% of in-person learning students say the same. The survey also found that students from low-income households are more likely to be learning remotely full time than students from upper income brackets.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: School Re-openings

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/students-falling-behind/2020/12/06/88d7157a-3665-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html
‘A lost generation’: Surge of research reveals students sliding backward, most vulnerable worst affected

After the U.S. education system fractured into Zoom screens last spring, experts feared millions of children would fall behind. Hard evidence now shows they were right.

A flood of new data — on the national, state and district levels — finds students began this academic year behind. Most of the research concludes students of color and those in high-poverty communities fell further behind their peers, exacerbating long-standing gaps in American education.

A study released this week by McKinsey & Co. estimates that the shift to remote school in the spring set White students back by one to three months in math, while students of color lost three to five months. As the coronavirus pandemic persists through this academic year, McKinsey said, losses will escalate.

“I think we should be very concerned about the risk of a lost generation of students,” said former education secretary John B. King Jr., who is now president of Education Trust, an advocacy and research group focused on equity issues.

Parents and teachers: Tell The Washington Post how your kids are handling online classes

The McKinsey study echoes a half dozen other national reports released in recent days. They all find that students regressed because of lost classroom time in the spring, particularly in math, though the reports vary in degree of the losses and in disparities among student groups.

Separately, data released by multiple school districts show a sharp increase in failing grades this fall, particularly for the most vulnerable students.

[...]

Some say the answer is to get more children back to in-person school. Limited data suggests open schools have not been a significant source of contagion, but the high coronavirus infection rates across the country have halted plans for a return in some districts and hardened fears of going back among many teachers and parents.

“We should have the vast majority of elementary school students back in school. It’s just not that dangerous,” said Nat Malkus, a resident scholar in education policy at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank. “We are still bleeding, so the first thing is to stop the bleeding, and then we’re going to have some healing to do, and it’s going to take years.”

[...]

The assessments this fall measure the results of last spring’s sudden shift to online learning, which was widely considered a disaster — leaving students unable to connect and teachers unprepared to do their jobs remotely.

Although the fall version of remote education appears improved, and some students are back in school buildings, millions of children are still learning from home. This setup privileges children who have quiet places to work, parents at home to help and reliable Internet service. Many of those who don’t have those advantages continue to struggle, and even some families with resources find it difficult to keep children engaged online and emotionally healthy.

In some cases, districts report that students are not even showing up for remote classes, making it virtually certain they will fall behind.

[...]

So you'll have a "lost generation" of poor, mostly non-white kids who were already in a disadvantageous position against their white wealthy libs counter-parts, because Dems accidentally chose to enforce such draconian requirements on schools (that only rich private schools of could manage) that public schools were forced to switch the remote learning, the set-up that happen to suit wealthier kids.

But these draconian requirements were necessary, r-r-r-ight? Well...

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1373816743425155076

As school districts around the U.S. continue to grapple with whether to reopen classrooms amid the coronavirus pandemic, data shows Florida started in-person learning without turning schools into superspreaders.

The state was one of the earliest to resume in-person instruction in August, following an executive order by Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran that directed districts to provide families the option of classroom learning five days a week or risk losing funding. The mandate triggered outcry among some teachers and parents who considered it risky, and drew unsuccessful lawsuits aimed at blocking it.

In the seven months since, Florida schools have avoided major outbreaks of Covid-19 and maintained case rates lower than those in the wider community. Mr. Corcoran said 80% of students in Florida are now attending schools in-person full- or part-time.

7 months... The schools across the USA could have been opened in 7 months now, if more politicians actually followed the science.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: School Reopenings

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-22/less-than-30-of-students-ready-to-return-to-lausd-campuses-survey-shows
LA Times: Less than a third of students ready to return to LAUSD campuses

Parents of fewer than 1 in 3 students said they are ready to send their children back to Los Angeles school district campuses, a reluctance fueled by lingering health concerns as well as confusion and dissatisfaction with the in-person academic program being offered.

To build up family trust, L.A. Unified School District officials have been holding online “town halls,” while principals are meeting with parents. And on Monday, Supt. Austin Beutner announced that, starting April 5, adult family members will be offered vaccines at Lincoln High School on the Eastside and Washington Preparatory High School in South Los Angeles.

Beutner also set the week of April 12 for elementary school reopenings, starting with 60 campuses, with hundreds of others to follow the next week.

The low projected numbers of those returning are based on the results of a district survey — which has been extended beyond the original March 19 deadline. As of Monday afternoon, about 62% of families had responded. Families who don’t respond will have their children assigned to remain in distance learning for the rest of the academic year.

Of those families who submitted a survey, fewer than half opted for a return to campus. When those who are returning are juxtaposed against the total enrollment of 465,000 students in kindergarten through 12th grade, the numbers are stark: 33% of elementary school students would return, 21% of middle schoolers would and 14% of high schoolers would.

Parents in the more affluent Westside L.A. are about twice as likely to return their children to an elementary school campus as those in low-income MacArthur Park, South Los Angeles, Panorama City or Koreatown. The COVID-19 death rate is almost five times as high in MacArthur Park as in West L.A., while the vaccination rate is half as much, according to data provided by L.A. Unified.

[...]

So you'll have a "lost generation" of poor, mostly non-white kids who were already in a disadvantageous position against their white wealthy libs counter-parts, but whose parents are choosing not to send them to school over public health concerns.

But these draconian requirements were necessary, r-r-r-ight? Well...perhaps according to those poor, mostly non-white parents.

Yes, the most awful part of it, is that Democrats and the Unions quite succeeded in their fearmongering, probably mostly because Trump happened to be for re-opening. The same with GOP and their soft stance on anti-vaxers - some (R) voters now don't want to get vaccinated. Less educated => more sensitive to anti-science fearmongering.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/postlocal/status/1374424276384641030

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: school closure.

Unesco tries to quantify the impact of school "closure":

http://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19_interruptions_to_learning_-_final.pdf
Pandemic-related disruptions to schooling and impacts on earning proficiency indicators: A focus on the early grades

The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, echoed the concerns of people and organisations around the world when he recently referred to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on schooling as a ‘generational catastrophe’1 . Children and youths are falling behind in their learning, and this is expected to have an impact lasting decades, especially if longer term effects on economic development and future earnings are taken into account.

This report focusses on the impacts of the pandemic on learning proficiency, specifically as measured by Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Indicator 4.1.1. Over the last couple of decades, there has been a growing awareness of how crucial learning proficiency, especially that of younger children, is for human development. The evidence is clear that improvements in proficiency underpin future economic development, and the building of more cohesive and equal societies. The indicators on learning proficiency are among the most discussed indicators within the SDG framework.

There have been a number of attempts to understand and quantify the learning losses caused by the pandemic, with a view to shaping the necessary mitigation strategies. The current report represents one such attempt. What was clear around the end of 2020, when the pandemic was still far from over, is that the effects of the pandemic on schooling and learning were large, yet it was still too early to gauge precise effects. Moreover, while education actors around the world have responded to the crisis in often heroic and innovative ways, the optimal approaches to mitigating long-term impacts remain unclear. The pandemic’s threats to education are unprecedented in their nature and magnitude. While a wealth of evidence on how learning occurs, and what improves educational quality, is enormously helpful in charting the way forward, a greater understanding about the specificities of the pandemic and schooling is needed.

This report brings certain important specificities to the fore. This is done in a manner which emphasizes issues education planners would be familiar with, and need to grapple with. Though the model developed for the current report uses country-level data, the aim is not to provide guidance to individual countries. Rather, this report aims to provide global projections, and to identify dynamics which planners must focus on. These include: the magnitude and nature of the pandemic-related disruptions, not just to schools, but also pre-school institutions; the relationship between disruptions in the contact time of learners and losses in learning proficiency; the movement of age cohorts through the schooling system, and what this means for future proficiency levels and recovery strategies; what recovery means in terms of accelerating learning, and the point at which one can expect a return to trajectories envisaged before the pandemic.

...

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Note that this data is up to Nov 2020. Republicans did a relatively good job science then.

While poorer countries will get most damaged, US is as a super-segregated country can simultaneously be compared to Rich North Europe (kids of white wealthy libs, the elite of D), to Rest of Europe and the rest the world (the kids of the backbone of D).

As old saying goes, every map of a generic (D) city Chicago is the same ol' map, and the damage on kids won't be any different.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: lost generation

https://twitter.com/elizashapiro/status/1366785199900622849
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/upshot/covid-opening-schools-experts.html
In Their Own Words: Why Health Experts Say Elementary Schools Should Open
With proper safety measures, doctors and scientists said in a survey, the benefits outweigh the risks.

Scientists and doctors who study infectious disease in children largely agreed, in a recent New York Times survey about school openings, that elementary school students should be able to attend in-person school now. With safety measures like masking and opening windows, the benefits outweigh the risks, the majority of the 175 respondents said.

In some ways, they were more supportive of broad reopening than the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was in recently published guidelines. But the experts pointed to the large share of schools in the United States and worldwide that have opened with minimal in-school spread while using such precautions.

What do you wish more people understood in the debate over school reopenings?
Most of the respondents work in academic research, and about a quarter work as health care providers. We asked them what their expertise taught them that they felt others needed to understand. Over all, they said that data suggests that with precautions, particularly masks, the risk of in-school transmission is low for both children and adults.

Do you think your local school district made the right decision about opening?
About 85 percent of the experts who lived in places where schools were open full time said their district had made the right call. Just one-third of those in places where schools were still closed said that had been the right choice.

Other than the virus, what is your biggest concern about children’s well-being during closures?

The group expressed great concern that other aspects of child health and well-being had been neglected during the pandemic, with the potential for dire long-term consequences.

Democrats have to start to listen to Trump science as DeSantis did.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Democrats have to start to listen to Trump science as DeSantis did.

Isn’t this precisely what Biden is attempting to do? Isn’t that why he picked Cardona for education secretary?

Eh, no? Science is pretty clear now (basically from the summer) and to open up schools is mostly a question of political will. DeSantis fought and got sued by the anti-science teachers unions, but has been proven right. On schools re-opening the US (Democrats) are exceptional in Western world, despite being world-best on testing, which should facilitate the re-opening.

I totally understand, why everyone (not just US) closed the schools spring 2020 - we didn't know anything about the virus - better safe than sorry.
I can understand, politically wise, not morally wise, why Biden & Dems opposed it in fall, even though we already had the data then, which Europe and Florida followed. Dems, perhaps, thought, that sacrificing poor kids' future closing the schools made them look tough on Covid or whatever.
But I really can't comprehend why he didn't push the pressure on the Governors as hard as he could to re-open them after Nov 7. Can't he admit Orange Bad was right?

I think that, if Biden came out in Dec/Jan and said that the the most schools should be re-opened, the most would be by now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re:school re-openings


The data from Florida
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7012e2.htm
COVID-19 in Primary and Secondary School Settings During the First Semester of School Reopening — Florida, August–December 2020
On March 19, 2021, this report was posted online as an MMWR Early Release.

After detection of cases of COVID-19 in Florida in March 2020, the governor declared a state of emergency on March 9,* and all school districts in the state suspended in-person instruction by March 20. Most kindergarten through grade 12 (K–12) public and private schools in Florida reopened for in-person learning during August 2020, with varying options for remote learning offered by school districts. During August 10–December 21, 2020, a total of 63,654 COVID-19 cases were reported in school-aged children; an estimated 60% of these cases were not school-related. Fewer than 1% of registered students were identified as having school-related COVID-19 and <11% of K-12 schools reported outbreaks. District incidences among students correlated with the background disease incidence in the county; resumption of in-person education was not associated with a proportionate increase in COVID-19 among school-aged children. Higher rates among students were observed in smaller districts, districts without mandatory mask-use policies, and districts with a lower proportion of students participating in remote learning. These findings highlight the importance of implementing both community-level and school-based strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and suggest that school reopening can be achieved without resulting in widespread illness among students in K–12 school settings.

Discussion

Although COVID-19 can and does occur in school settings, the results of these analyses indicate that in Florida, 60% of COVID-19 cases in school-aged children were not school-related, <1% of registered students were identified as having school-related COVID-19, and <11% of K–12 schools reported outbreaks. These findings add to a growing body of evidence suggesting that COVID-19 transmission does not appear to be demonstrably more frequent in schools than in noneducational settings (2). Temporal trends in the United States also indicate that among school-aged children, school-based transmission might be no higher than transmission outside the school setting (3,4); the limited in-school transmission observed in Florida has also been observed in other states (5) and countries (6).

Success in preventing the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into schools depends upon controlling community transmission and adhering to mitigation measures in schools, particularly masking, physical distancing, testing, and increasing room air ventilation (2,4,7). Where feasible, supporting family choice for remote versus in-person learning likely reduces in-school crowding and facilitates better physical distancing in schools. In Florida, a large proportion of school-related outbreaks was observed among social gatherings and extracurricular sporting activities. Household transmission and social gatherings might pose a higher risk for infection among school-aged children than does school attendance (8 ). School sports and other extracurricular activities in which masking and physical distancing are difficult or impossible to achieve should be postponed, particularly during periods of high community transmission (2,9).

The findings in this report are subject to at least six limitations. First, because data on the number of teachers and staff members statewide or by county were not available, rates of total school-related cases could not be calculated; instead, the number of student cases per 100,000 registered students was used. Second, screening testing was generally not done in most schools, therefore, asymptomatic infections might have been underascertained. Third, classification of school-related cases, contacts, and outbreaks was dependent on thorough case interviews and might have been incomplete, relative to the overall number of cases in school-aged children. Fourth, although the operational definition used for school-related cases was likely sensitive, it does not ensure that all persons with school-related cases acquired infection in the school setting because infections might have been acquired elsewhere. Fifth, limited data were available at the school district level on some mitigation measures, such as mask use in schools, so these mitigation measures could not be fully assessed. Finally, results should be interpreted with caution because most students in the largest school districts did not resume in-person education for the first part of the analysis period.

These findings provide further evidence that resumption of school can likely be achieved without the rapid disease spread observed in congregate living facilities or high-density worksites. Both community-level and school-based measures to prevent spread of disease are essential to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in school settings (10).

Europe:
Sep 1
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-europe-education-f-idUSKBN25S4L4
Back to school: how European classrooms are coping with COVID

Schools across Europe are reopening as summer break ends and governments insist that students return to the classroom after months of online learning due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Countries are taking different approaches to minimise contagion in schools, as outlined below.

Dec 1
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/europe-schools-covid-open/2020/12/01/4480a5c8-2e61-11eb-9dd6-2d0179981719_story.html
Europe’s schools still open, still relatively safe, through covid-19 second wave

When European schools reopened their classrooms in the spring, after the first wave of the coronavirus had crested, some parents expressed concern their children were being used as “guinea pigs” in a dangerous experiment.

But to the extent that European schools have acted as laboratories for the world, the findings eight months later are largely positive. Most of Europe kept schools open even during a worst-on-the-planet second wave of infections this fall. And still, schools appear to be relatively safe environments, public health officials say. As long as they adhered to a now-established set of precautions — mask-wearing, hand-washing, ventilation — schools are thought to have played only a limited role in accelerating coronavirus transmission in Europe.

Those conclusions contrast sharply with the prevailing wisdom in the United States, where public health officials have focused on low rates of positive coronavirus tests in the broader community as a prerequisite for in-person schooling. Some U.S. school districts recently announced that they are going remote again, as coronavirus cases rise, and other districts have yet to reopen their classrooms at all.

“It is still difficult for me to understand why schools are closed in the United States,” said Otto Helve, a specialist in pediatric infectious diseases at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare who has studied coronavirus transmission in schools. “Schools are not driving the epidemic.”

France, which spiked worse than Spain last month, also saw relatively low numbers in schools. The week of France’s peak last month, 0.1 percent of students and 0.2 percent of school personnel tested positive for the coronavirus. Across the country, 142 of 528,400 classrooms quarantined, about 0.03 percent, while 21 of 61,500 schools went into fuller quarantine, according to data from the education ministry.

“We are not seeing the tip of the iceberg; we are seeing the whole iceberg because of our good tracing,” said Quique Bassat, a Spanish pediatrician and epidemiologist who was the coordinator of the Spanish Pediatrics Association’s working group for school reopenings.

In Spain, coronavirus cases were already rising sharply across the country in early September, as classrooms prepared to reopen for the first time since the pandemic hit.

“There were legitimate concerns that perhaps we were fueling the epidemic, and perhaps we were adding more fuel to the fire, and this was going to be the apocalypse,” Bassat said. “To the surprise of many, reopening the schools, applying all these measures in a strict way, controlled transmission, and there were no big outbreaks.”

“It’s not that we think schools are no danger, that there’s no effect,” said Steven Van Gucht, the head of viral diseases at the Belgian public health agency. “Schools are the last thing to close; they’re really the last thing on the list. There is political pressure and societal pressure. We consider schooling an absolute priority.”

When Belgium buckled under a second wave in which daily cases peaked at 1,536 per million people — more than three times the level in the United States right now — it doubled a preplanned post-Halloween school vacation to two weeks, creating a 14-day circuit breaker that built on a broad, nationwide lockdown. Afterward, schools resumed, and infections have dropped for weeks.

“It is very clear to everyone what the downsides are to having school closures,” Helve said. “The downside to closing would need to be compensated by an extremely good outcome in terms of disease control, and it doesn’t seem to do that.”

“Schools are the last thing to close; they’re really the last thing on the list. There is political pressure and societal pressure. We consider schooling an absolute priority.”

The priority of Democrats seem to be LatinX rather then schooling.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1376569936575926272

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/29/vaccine-effective-essential-workers-study
Pfizer, Moderna vaccines are 90% effective after two doses in study of real-life conditions, CDC confirms
Report on essential workers is one of the first to estimate protection against any infection, regardless of symptoms

The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines being deployed to fight the coronavirus pandemic are robustly effective in preventing infections in real-life conditions, according to a federal study released Monday that provides reassurance of protection for front-line workers in the United States.

In a study of about 4,000 health-care personnel, police, firefighters and other essential workers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the vaccines reduced the risk of infection by 80 percent after one shot. Protection increased to 90 percent following the second dose. The findings are consistent with clinical trial results and studies showing strong effectiveness in Israel and the United Kingdom, and in initial studies of health-care workers at the UT Southwestern Medical Center and in Southern California.

The CDC report is significant, experts said, because it analyzed how well the vaccines worked among a diverse group of front-line working-age adults whose jobs make them more likely to be exposed to the virus and to spread it.

Real-world data confirmed clinical trials. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are unbelievably effective. Thank you, Pr. Trump, for securing these beautiful vaccines for all the Americans.