Obama loses white voters by an almost 3-1 margin and is only able to win the White House by narrowly winning Michigan.
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 49% 266 EV
Barack Obama/Gretchen Whitmer 47% 272 EV
.............What?
??
I'm sorry man but some of your maps just make absolutely no sense to me, and this one is probably the worst. Why would Obama suddenly do massively worse with white voters than he did before? You really think he wouldn't get the same kinds of gains from college educated whites/suburbanites that Biden got? These people largely love Obama now, and still would hate Trump. And how would he lose the popular vote?
Racism is a big reason why Trump won in 2016, and it would be a driving factor in 2020 too.
Biden might well have gotten those suburban voters precisely because he's a white straight male.
I can see Obama's approvals coming down dramatically if he reentered electoral politics.
That said, it is possible a third party gets some traction here, and scoops up about 5-7% of the vote.
