I think Lean D is fair. Trump could win it if everything is going well for him, but the county is a uniquely terrible fit for him. For the county races, I expect Rs to still sweep all of them since Maricopa is still quite red downballot. The sheriff race will technically go D, but he is basically a Republican who changed party registration to be a Dem since Penzone had to be replaced by a person of the same party.
You realize this means Arizona is a pure tossup? Maricopa votes only a smidge to the left of the state.
Which is Tilt D, which is optimistic for SnowLabrador.
