2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump 44-43 among likely voters. Trump won by 9, so an 8 point swing and a big change since March when Trump led 51-41. Might help Trump that IA is a major producer of soybeans (usually #1 or #2) and is dependent on the dole now because of the disastrous China trade war.

Tossup.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/15/iowa-poll-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden-1-point/3178743001/

Republicans got slaughtered in IA in the midterms. Poll numbers showing IA as a tossup should surprise no one.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No way Biden's up 16 in MN. Most I would say is 4.

"Poll disagrees with my priors, therefore it is wrong."

I mean, I'd gladly take the "under" on a Biden +10 over/under in MN, and a Biden +17 from Gravis isn't changing my mind.

Looking at the 538 and Economist models, that looks like about an even bet at the moment.
TBH, I don't think Biden's up by 16 in MI either.  But a ceiling of +4 there, which is what Jopow claims, is also ridiculous.

MN was R+1 in 2016, so if nothing changed and Biden is up by like 9 now you'd expect him to be ahead by 8 in MN. My guess is Minnesota isn't trending much either way but who knows.

Oddly enough, 538 has Minnesota's elasticity coefficient slightly higher than 1. I always thought they were inelastic.

So, this seems reasonable.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.

https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/1318566949631238144

Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

Just scanning back at the results of elections where a major party candidate got < 43% of the vote in an election with no major 3rd party candidate:

Mondale 1984: 40.56%
McGovern 1972: 37.52%
Goldwater 1964: 38.47%
Stevenson 1956: 41.97%
Landon 1936: 36.54%
Hoover 1932: 39.65%
Smith 1928: 40.79%
Cox 1920: 34.12%
Parker 1904: 37.59%

Impressive company. The only incumbent in there is Hoover. The only nominee of an incumbent party in there is Cox.

Worst re-election performances by NPV margin of loss:

1912: Taft (-18.65%)
1932: Hoover (-17.76%)
1980: Carter (-9.74%)
1992: Bush (-5.56%)
1892: Harrison (-3.01%)