2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 193740 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #1825 on: October 20, 2020, 01:46:36 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:58:36 AM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 10:51:11 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

Why is there a big divergence with the RCP averages though?

Because RCP cherry-picks which polls uses in their averages. For example, they included the Dornsife poll in 2016, when it was one of Trump's best, but they aren't including it this year, when it's one of Trump's worst.

They do now. A good example is how they exclude Data for Progress or PPP but include Trafalger.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1826 on: October 20, 2020, 01:55:49 PM »
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1827 on: October 20, 2020, 02:38:03 PM »
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1828 on: October 20, 2020, 02:39:28 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 20, 2020, 01:55:49 PM


Iowa
Presidential: Tied
Senate: Greenfield+3 (no change)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1829 on: October 20, 2020, 02:46:59 PM »
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1830 on: October 20, 2020, 03:01:19 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 20, 2020, 02:46:59 PM


Biden+7
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1831 on: October 20, 2020, 03:09:36 PM »
PA:. Biden +3-4
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Buzz
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« Reply #1832 on: October 20, 2020, 03:22:37 PM »
Buzz Official Predictions ™️

Iowa: Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Biden +6
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1833 on: October 20, 2020, 03:27:34 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 03:22:37 PM
Buzz Official Predictions ™️

Iowa: Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Biden +6

I ...actually agree with these
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forza nocta
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« Reply #1834 on: October 20, 2020, 03:33:00 PM »
Iowa: Trump +2
PA: Biden +5
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Buzz
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« Reply #1835 on: October 20, 2020, 03:38:45 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on October 20, 2020, 03:27:34 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 03:22:37 PM
Buzz Official Predictions ™️

Iowa: Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Biden +6

I ...actually agree with these
probably not a good thing... my predictions are never right =(
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1836 on: October 20, 2020, 04:47:01 PM »
Suffolk has had a bit of an R lean so I can't wait for the melt downs when it's like Biden +3
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #1837 on: October 20, 2020, 05:22:22 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

Just scanning back at the results of elections where a major party candidate got < 43% of the vote in an election with no major 3rd party candidate:

Mondale 1984: 40.56%
McGovern 1972: 37.52%
Goldwater 1964: 38.47%
Stevenson 1956: 41.97%
Landon 1936: 36.54%
Hoover 1932: 39.65%
Smith 1928: 40.79%
Cox 1920: 34.12%
Parker 1904: 37.59%

Impressive company. The only incumbent in there is Hoover. The only nominee of an incumbent party in there is Cox.

Worst re-election performances by NPV margin of loss:

1912: Taft (-18.65%)
1932: Hoover (-17.76%)
1980: Carter (-9.74%)
1992: Bush (-5.56%)
1892: Harrison (-3.01%)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1838 on: October 20, 2020, 06:45:10 PM »
AZSEN polling coming from RMG Research/PoliticalIQ soon: http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/20/az-biden-47-trump-46/
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Beet
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« Reply #1839 on: October 20, 2020, 07:53:46 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1840 on: October 20, 2020, 07:56:16 PM »
Quote from: Beet on October 20, 2020, 07:53:46 PM


RCP sucks, we know.
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redjohn
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« Reply #1841 on: October 20, 2020, 07:56:57 PM »
Quote from: Beet on October 20, 2020, 07:53:46 PM


RCP selectively picks pollsters that show better results for Trump and always picks the smaller margin. Their polling average this time around is not a real polling average.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1842 on: October 20, 2020, 08:04:58 PM »
Clinton's numbers crashed over the next few days four years ago. If the election were held two weeks earlier she would have won!
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1843 on: October 20, 2020, 08:07:53 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 20, 2020, 08:04:58 PM
Clinton's numbers crashed over the next few days four years ago. If the election were held two weeks earlier she would have won!



Biden's also at 49 compared to Clinton's 45. People still haven't learned the actual lessons of 2016.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1844 on: October 21, 2020, 04:55:10 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on October 20, 2020, 08:07:53 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 20, 2020, 08:04:58 PM
Clinton's numbers crashed over the next few days four years ago. If the election were held two weeks earlier she would have won!



Biden's also at 49 compared to Clinton's 45. People still haven't learned the actual lessons of 2016.

also using RCP averages in general. Their PA average for Biden right now is like 3% lower than 538s
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1845 on: October 21, 2020, 07:17:15 AM »
Let's see: Suffolk-PA poll just dropped.  We have a Monmouth-IA poll coming today.  Anything else major?

(Oh, and IA poll will be Trump +2-3). 
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VAR
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« Reply #1846 on: October 21, 2020, 07:18:02 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 21, 2020, 07:17:15 AM
Let's see: Suffolk-PA poll just dropped.  We have a Monmouth-IA poll coming today.  Anything else major?

(Oh, and IA poll will be Trump +2-3). 

Flawless Beautiful Quinnipiac  Purple heart
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1847 on: October 21, 2020, 07:18:55 AM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 21, 2020, 07:18:02 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 21, 2020, 07:17:15 AM
Let's see: Suffolk-PA poll just dropped.  We have a Monmouth-IA poll coming today.  Anything else major?

(Oh, and IA poll will be Trump +2-3). 

Flawless Beautiful Quinnipiac  Purple heart

The best!

What state is Big-Q giving us?
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VAR
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« Reply #1848 on: October 21, 2020, 07:21:47 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 21, 2020, 07:18:55 AM
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 21, 2020, 07:18:02 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 21, 2020, 07:17:15 AM
Let's see: Suffolk-PA poll just dropped.  We have a Monmouth-IA poll coming today.  Anything else major?

(Oh, and IA poll will be Trump +2-3). 

Flawless Beautiful Quinnipiac  Purple heart

The best!

What state is Big-Q giving us?

They usually release polls on Wednesdays, but I don’t know what state(s) we’re getting yet  Smiley
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1849 on: October 21, 2020, 07:55:48 AM »
We should know around 11AM EST what Q-pac is dropping today
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