NYTimes/Siena: Biden+6 in AZ, +3 in FL, +6 in PA, +11 in WI

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Wisconsin votes 18 points to the left of Iowa that would be ...something.

[Landslide Lyndon]

the recalled 2016 vote seems R-friendly—trump+7 in AZ, +4 FL, +4 PA and +2 WI

It's Siena. They always have R-friendly samples.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Siena: we don't push undecideds

Selzer: hold my beer.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Biden winning seniors everywhere except Arizona (Trump 48/47) and independents by crushing margins.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I’m old to remember when Trump was surging because Selzer had him at 48% in Iowa.

Hey man, we needed you yesterday more than ever.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I did a quick reallocation of undecideds by race/education for Pennsylvania and Florida by simply allocating them to who those groups said they were voting for. Biden gets 53, Trump 45 and others 2 in Pennsylvania and in Florida Biden gets 51 to Trump 46 and others 3.

In these polls in these states at least, those who are undecided demographically favour Biden.

I don't think this is a good idea. Just because the demographic generally favors Biden does not mean that undecideds of that group will go for Biden. It's easy to see why a conservative-leaning Hispanic/Black voter could have reservations about Trump, but ultimately vote for him anyways. IMO the only thing you can really look at when trying to figure out where undecideds will go is by looking at Trump approval / disapproval vs Biden fav / unfav among these undecided voters.

Undecideds in almost every poll overwhelmingly disapprove Trump.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Florida has been a COVID hotspot for months now but you don't see Biden winning by double digits.