NYTimes/Siena: Biden+6 in AZ, +3 in FL, +6 in PA, +11 in WI

[Blair]

will we get 18 pages for this?

[Blair]

These Wisconsin numbers have been horrible for Trump. The state is borderline Likely D.

Which, combined with MI and Biden presumably holding all Clinton-2016 states, means that Trump MUST run a straight through AZ, FL, GA, NC, and PA. 

Not impossible by any means (nor is him winning in WI or MI), but Biden being loosely set-up with 258/259 (depending on NE-02) EC votes is a pretty spectacular position in which to be. 

Does Trump really have any chance whatsoever of winning WI? How many more Biden + double digit polls in Wisconsin do we need before we say Biden is guaranteed to win there? I feel as if there is a double standard where every Trump + 8 poll or whatever in a state means it is Safe R, but for some reason consistent double digit leads in WI and WI + 17 are not enough for people to say WI will absolutely go for Biden.

I don’t think Biden will win by double digits - I think he wins by 7.5% - but my assumption is assuming that there is a big turnout surge among WWC. With no turnout surge, Biden should get close or actually win by double digits

I think Biden will win Wisconsin.  The double standard is bc Clinton led by 6.5 points on average in Wisconsin, with several double digit polls.  Trump never led a single one.  He still won.  So people are scared to call it as a result.

This is true, but there are a few things going on:

1) No education weighting in 2016, while there is education weighting in 2020
2) Hillary's polling average was 46%, whereas Biden's polling average is above 50%
3) The margin polling average in 2020 is higher in WI than it is in 2016 according to 538. Also, there were no double digit polls in October 2016.
4) Hillary never invested anything into WI whereas Trump invested last minute. Meanwhile, in 2020, both sides are investing
5) There is an active big COVID spike going on in WI that has been happening in the last month. It's gotten really bad over the last week; if anything, I think Biden has more potential to overperform in WI than underperform taking this into account.

All of these lead me to believe that Biden will easily win Wisconsin, and has a 0% (yes, I mean 0%) chance of losing the state.

IIRC I heard on the 538 podcast that there were also a lot fewer state polls in Wisconsin in 2016