Ironically, Trump might be the only one who can beat her.
DeSantis however has a good shot too of beating her, but a lot of GOP candidates simply are less strong and won't have enthusiastic turn-out, and I don't think moderate suburbanites are going to magically return to the GOP after what happened, even if someone like AOC is the nominee. If she was the nominee, she would probably "moderate" her message as well.
If AOC had to run against Trump, AOC could use a different tactic, and she doesn't have to "moderate" her message, because the dynamics of the race would be completely different. Than she will get more moderate the moment she'll be in office or is being declared the winner, but never during the campaign.
Like AOC would never win if she moved to the center after winning the primaries if she had to run against Trump. If Trump makes no effort to win moderates or independents, AOC could win them over by just pointing out Trump's mistakes and controversies and his stances and what turmoil he caused in the political landscape. Many people are disgusted with Trump. Even them not voting for Trump is a vote for AOC. But she has no incentive to move to the left, because it will be more important to rally up her base, and get her base to shore turn-out, especially among demographics she'll be favoured and strong with: "urban centers, millenials / gen z / gen x, hispanics, women, name it). By doing that at the end, she'll turn out more voters than by moving to the left by competing for the last moderate voters, because people made their mind up about Trump, it's not going to change. They either like him and will vote for him at any cost, or they don't. There are some that might not like both, but if AOC is on the ballot, i think it's unlikely they'll vote for her, whatever she does because of her name and reputation.
So, her strategy is to double down on being very left-wing and progressive, because the chance of winning will be much higher. The Democratic base would move along. Because no-one wants to see a second term of Trump, and if they know the risk is there, they'll move along. The more differences you have with Trump, the better, and it would be important to make clear that distinction and those differences (it's a strategy, not what I believe in, but if i was a strategist, i would certainly encourage AOC to move in that direction for her).
