French presidential election, 2022

[Sir Mohamed]

I think there's going to be a rematch from 2017 with Macron and LePen facing each other in a runoff. Macron will win by a smaller margin than last time. 57% to 43% or so.

[Sir Mohamed]

Macron has been assaulted (slapped) at a high school where there was a protest. Royalist slogans were heard.

Ugh.

Here's the video:

https://twitter.com/AaronVells/status/1402265259994456072

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1445748194885783557

[Sir Mohamed]

When is Macron expected to announce formally?

[Sir Mohamed]

Since Macron is likely to win reelection, what are the chances his party also wins a governing majority in the legislative elections a month later? As I know, the president's party controlling parliament is more of the rule than the exception, in contrast to America.

[Sir Mohamed]

What is causing the tightening?  Is it Macron's promise to raise retirement age to 65 (most European countries are not 66 or 67 so seems hardly radical but can see how some in 50s might not like having to work an extra 3 years).  Other than that cannot see reason but that would seem most logical.

Didn't Macron already promise a raise of the retirement age already in 2017? Seems like this is a holy cow for the French.

I'd assume a ton of 1st round voters of other candidates won't show up in the runoff this time around. In 2017, in the aftermath of Brexit and Trump, I felt like there are pretty wide anti-LePen coalition from left-wing to center-right that won't be as strong in 2022. Additionally, Zemour perhaps makes LePen look moderate?

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, this is actually getting close? I wonder whether some left-wing voters will end up holding their nose and still vote for Macron after the 1st round a polls continue to be beck-in-neck? At this point, a LePen presidency seems like a real possibility.

If LePen ekes out a narrow win, what's the outlook for legislative elections? Can her party win a governing majority or would this just end up in a stalemate/divided government. I guess she couldn't do that much without a majority? As far as I know, the prez of France has less executive powers than POTUS and vetos can be overridden with a simple majority.

[Sir Mohamed]

The momentum's on Le Pen's side now. I really think she wins

Do you think she comes in on top in the 1st round? And don't you think there will be some reckoning after that and a Stop-LePen coalition in the 2nd round?

If she actually wins, you can certainly thank left-wing voters switching over or staying home. Gives me some 2016 vibes (although I don't think Sanders cost HRC the election).

[Sir Mohamed]

How the French could see what is happening in Ukraine and go "Hey let's vote for the longtime Putin apologist!" is beyond me.

OK sure she's tried to walk it back a little lately but she is still clearly not to be trusted. This isn't getting into any other political issues about the pension system or whatever (on which she is clearly not better than Macron anyway). This really should be a time for single issue voting if ever there was one and it's extremely disconcerting to see France flirt with fire like this. Not to mention bewildering cause Macron got such a massive lead and spike in popularity following the invasion of Ukraine. What the hell caused him to plummet so dramatically and rapidly in the polls???

French posters and some others for sure have more insights here than I have, though my assumption is that Ukraine is not on top of voters' minds in France. For sure it's less of an issue compared to Eastern Europe or even Germany. Macron wants to raise the retirement age from 62 and 65, which is extremely unpopular in France, and inflation is a huge issue. Seems like Macron hasn't exactly delivered on his promises on economic policy. And LePen, who now appears more moderate with this other weirdo running, successfully portrays him as out of touch elitist.

In addition, many left-wingers don't hold their nose anymore to vote for Macron in the 2nd round, but either stay home or vote LePen. Particularly supporters of Melenchon (supporters of Hidalgo will for sure vote for Macron, but she's polling at 2-3%).

[Sir Mohamed]

Will Melenchon make an endorsement?

What I'm really interested in are the parliamentary elections, since they will have a huge impact on what the eventual winner can accomplish. French prez has less executive powers than POTUS as far as I know, and a veto can be overridden with simple majority.

[Sir Mohamed]

I wonder if Sarkozy endorsing Macron might do him more harm than good. If the key to winning is to win over Melanchon voters in the second round - surely a Sarkozy endorsement is a huge turn-off to those people...

Do these endorsements even mean much? I'm not sure.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is there going to be a debate?

I'd be surprised if not.

Macron wouldn't do himself a favor skipping a debate, would just contribute to his image as out-of-touch elitist who feels entitled.

[Sir Mohamed]

Very much looks like my bold 55-45% prediction was even an underestatement as this race is unfolding. I don't think Macron will break 60% again, though 58-42% seems very much possible as we speak.

Although she's not that old, I guess this is Le Pen's last stand for the presidency. It's already her third bid.

[Sir Mohamed]

While I'm incredibly reliefed Macron pulled this off, and it wasn't *that* close in the end, it's still WAY closer than it should have been, given Mademoiselle Le Pen is not some normal right of center politician. When over 40% vote for such a candidate, there's something wrong.

Macron, just like other Western leaders, need to figure out what to do with mostly rural voters that view globalization as a threat instead of an opportunity and who feel overwhelmed by rapid cultural changes. For sure, latter is kind of shortsighted, but these people are there and the govt needs to figure out a way to address their concerns. I know this is easy to write for me, though it's a challenge leaders have to take on.

[Sir Mohamed]

Macron, just like other Western leaders, need to figure out what to do with mostly rural voters that view globalization as a threat instead of an opportunity and who feel overwhelmed by rapid cultural changes. For sure, latter is kind of shortsighted, but these people are there and the govt needs to figure out a way to address their concerns. I know this is easy to write for me, though it's a challenge leaders have to take on.

I don’t think there is much that can be done. First, it is a popular misperception that social change at the macro level can be fundamentally shaped via electoral politics. In most cases, the options are rather limited - globalization, for instance, is a fact and will only intensify over the course of our lifetime (regardless of what national governments want and do). And it will always create winners and losers. Second, the “victim of globalization” / “overwhelmed by cultural change” identity is more often performative than it is material.

Populism is equally strong in Western countries, so I wouldn't say there's nothing that can be done about it. After all, getting in politics is usually about solving difficult problems, or at least what public service should be about. In France, similar to the US, the political center from center-left to center-right is about to fade away, with severe consequences for the country and entire Western world.

For sure there's a segment of electorate lost for any meaningful discourse, though some Le Pen (or Trump) voters remain persuadable with the right kind of messaging and actual problem solving. When 40-somewhat percent of a country no longer have trust in institutions, there's something not well. And nobody caring about the future and well-being of their nation should just take it as a given fact.