MA-GOV 2022 Megathread
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Author Topic: MA-GOV 2022 Megathread  (Read 21914 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #100 on: October 06, 2021, 08:01:26 AM »
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on October 06, 2021, 01:51:57 AM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 05, 2021, 06:58:22 PM
Trump endorses Deihl for MA Governor. If Baker runs for reelection then this could work in his favor - it allows him to easily run away from Trump and get Indies to vote for Baker in the R primary. If he doesn't run, then I expect this to give Deihl the nom over Polito and therefore had the race to the Dems.

Quite the contrary, Trump's endorsement makes or breaks primaries, even in deep blue states. I expect Diehl to win the Republican Primary, even if Baker runs for another term, and in any event, I now expect Baker to announce that he won't be running for reelection any day now.


Except it is the Indies - not the R's - who decide victors in MA. Baker never was reliant on primary R voters anyway. These indies are likely to have voted for Biden. Only if turnout is piss-poor and the primary is a truly partisan affair do the die hards have a majority.
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Spectator
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« Reply #101 on: October 06, 2021, 02:51:07 PM »
Massachusetts was Trumpier than average in the 2016 primaries. Unless a lot of otherwise unaffiliated indies make a concerted effort to pick up GOP primary ballots, Baker is toast.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #102 on: October 06, 2021, 02:55:46 PM »
If Baker loses the primary, he can run as an Independent and take a lot of votes....

The MAGOP is turning Trumpian, wow..
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Spectator
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« Reply #103 on: October 06, 2021, 03:24:51 PM »
Quote from: Suburbia on October 06, 2021, 02:55:46 PM
If Baker loses the primary, he can run as an Independent and take a lot of votes....

The MAGOP is turning Trumpian, wow..

Massachusetts has a sore loser law.
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JMT
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« Reply #104 on: October 13, 2021, 07:09:07 AM »
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #105 on: October 13, 2021, 10:00:43 AM »
Kennedy didn't have a Backbone to run against Baker, this clearly for Gov would have been a Competetive race

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #106 on: October 13, 2021, 10:08:16 AM »
Any timeline for Baker's decision here? Is he tending one direction or another?
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #107 on: October 17, 2021, 12:47:12 PM »
I'm by no means a expert in MA politics. With that disclaimer I think there is a real chance(30%) Baker is not running again.
He is taking a long time to decide and has actual reasons not to run. Not electoral reasons. He is very likely to win the primary and certain to win the generel election.

But he is an increasingly awkward fit for the trumpian republican party of today. And there is no sign that will change anytime soon.
Having to run a somewhat serious primary campaign because is not worshipping Trump must annoy him.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #108 on: October 18, 2021, 08:30:24 PM »
Quote from: CityofSinners on October 17, 2021, 12:47:12 PM
I'm by no means a expert in MA politics. With that disclaimer I think there is a real chance(30%) Baker is not running again.
He is taking a long time to decide and has actual reasons not to run. Not electoral reasons. He is very likely to win the primary and certain to win the generel election.

But he is an increasingly awkward fit for the trumpian republican party of today. And there is no sign that will change anytime soon.
Having to run a somewhat serious primary campaign because is not worshipping Trump must annoy him.

He's also barely done any fundraising.
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Spectator
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« Reply #109 on: October 20, 2021, 08:57:10 AM »
As I said, Baker is likely a decided underdog in the primary, as he trails Diehl by over 20 points in the latest poll. His best bet to maintain office would be to just run as an independent. Prime opportunity for someone like Healey to jump in.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/massachusetts-playbook/2021/10/20/bakers-not-in-the-stratosphere-anymore-49477
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #110 on: October 20, 2021, 09:06:52 AM »
Quote from: Spectator on October 20, 2021, 08:57:10 AM
As I said, Baker is likely a decided underdog in the primary, as he trails Diehl by over 20 points in the latest poll. His best bet to maintain office would be to just run as an independent. Prime opportunity for someone like Healey to jump in.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/massachusetts-playbook/2021/10/20/bakers-not-in-the-stratosphere-anymore-49477

Primarying Baker out would be very stupid for the GOP. Yup, he's culterally liberal, but he's the only GOP candidate that can win a GE.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #111 on: October 20, 2021, 09:08:57 AM »
This poll was also sponsored by the DGA.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #112 on: October 20, 2021, 12:08:04 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on October 20, 2021, 08:57:10 AM
As I said, Baker is likely a decided underdog in the primary, as he trails Diehl by over 20 points in the latest poll. His best bet to maintain office would be to just run as an independent. Prime opportunity for someone like Healey to jump in.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/massachusetts-playbook/2021/10/20/bakers-not-in-the-stratosphere-anymore-49477

The problem is that registered Rs in MA are such a total rump that they are totally unrepresentative even of Republican voters in the state. This was always going to be a problem. If Diehl got on the ballot or anyone did, there was a decent chance Baker would lose a primary which see 100,000 votes.
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JMT
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« Reply #113 on: November 30, 2021, 09:45:51 PM »
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #114 on: November 30, 2021, 09:50:22 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2021, 10:03:43 PM by Roll Roons »
Just over a week ago, the same guy said Charlie probably goes for a third term:


And this article seems to be implying that he'll do it: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2021/11/30/charlie-baker-independent-reelection/
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Not Me, Us
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« Reply #115 on: November 30, 2021, 10:15:11 PM »
Who is this random Twitter user and why should we take what they say seriously?
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #116 on: November 30, 2021, 10:24:01 PM »
Quote from: Not Me, Us on November 30, 2021, 10:15:11 PM
Who is this random Twitter user and why should we take what they say seriously?

Former State House Bureau Chief, Boston Globe.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #117 on: November 30, 2021, 10:41:02 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2021, 10:57:31 PM by Roll Roons »
He has been holding fundraisers, which makes me think he might go for it. But I feel like it's impossible to be sure either way. We all thought the signs pointed to Sununu running for Senate.
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THG
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« Reply #118 on: November 30, 2021, 10:56:50 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2021, 12:24:20 AM by THG »
I have been getting mixed signals on whether Baker runs for re-election or not.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Baker was still deciding as we speak, tbh. Still, anyone 100% guaranteeing something either way is probably mistaken.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #119 on: December 01, 2021, 01:34:58 AM »
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JMT
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« Reply #120 on: December 01, 2021, 07:43:29 AM »
Looks like the reporting is being confirmed, an announcement of some kind from Baker is coming today.



My prediction is that he won’t run again.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #121 on: December 01, 2021, 08:42:04 AM »
Quote from: BoiseBoy on December 01, 2021, 01:34:58 AM


If that's true, it's probably because he has data indicating he would lose a Republican primary.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #122 on: December 01, 2021, 08:49:12 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on December 01, 2021, 08:42:04 AM
Quote from: BoiseBoy on December 01, 2021, 01:34:58 AM


If that's true, it's probably because he has data indicating he would lose a Republican primary.

Republican primary is open primary, so, most of those voting in it, are, probably, Indies. And he is popular among Indies. So - i doubt...
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JMT
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« Reply #123 on: December 01, 2021, 09:04:32 AM »
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #124 on: December 01, 2021, 09:07:04 AM »
GODDAMMIT WHY
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