KY-Mason Dixon: Bevin Trails by 8

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It's way too soon to be trusting these polls, not to mention the fact that Kentucky polls tend to have a Democratic bias. If Bevin is still down by 8 (not 1 or 2) in October, then we'll talk.

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There is no way Trump is only at +9 favorable in Kentucky. Throw it in the trash, if you haven't already. Trump's approval in Kentucky would still be at least +15 even if a recession hit.

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I'll certainly concede (and I'm sure IceSpear will too) that Bevin could lose if multiple polls still show him down by 8 (with Beshear near or above 50%) in September or October. As I said, it's one very early poll, and Kentucky polls aren't the most reliable.

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Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

Maybe because a Democrat who was a "strong candidate" lost to a "weak incumbent" Republican in a district that's significantly more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole in a great year for Democrats?

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Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

Maybe because a Democrat who was a "strong candidate" lost to a "weak incumbent" Republican in a district that's significantly more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole in a great year for Democrats?

McGrath was a ridiculously overrated candidate, and Barr's campaign was actually pretty solid (his ads and ground game were great), not to mention that Barr is far more popular in his district than Bevin is statewide. Why are we even comparing a gubernatorial race in an off year with a federal race in a regular midterm anyway? Saying that Barr's very underwhelming win is evidence enough that an extremely unpopular governor who’s already trailing in polling couldn’t possibly lose reelection no matter what is foolish. Trump's popularity is going to help McConnell, but probably not Bevin.

He's trailing in one poll, almost a year out, and Kentucky polls tend to underestimate Republicans anyway (Trump's approval is not only +9.) If we were talking about a somewhat less red state, then maybe Bevin's unpopularity would be enough to drag him down, but Kentucky is just way too Republican to elect a Democratic Governor, even in a good year for Democrats. Not to mention, Beshear's approvals aren't terrific (31-23), and that's probably going to get worse for him, not better.