2020 New York Redistricting

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

My upstate proposal



Every Dem seat in this map would have held in 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gerrymander that sort of works off the current Court drawn map. Central Valley can prolly be cleaned up a bit. Generally a gerrymander that tries to be sneaky, but a few districts like NY-01, NY-02, and NY-16 are pretty obvious. In NYC, NY-10 is drawn as a new 32% Asian opportunity seat. Realistically though, this map likely makes several incumbents upset so doubt it'll happen.

SNIP

2020 Pres vote by seat:

NY-01: Biden + 11.2
NY-02: Trump + 11.8
NY-03: Biden + 15.1
NY-04: Biden + 15.2
NY-05: Biden + 53.8
NY-06: Biden + 28.3
NY-07: Biden + 56.3
NY-08: Biden + 71.2
NY-09: Biden + 41.3
NY-10: Biden + 38.9
NY-11: Biden + 16.3
NY-12: Biden + 71.1
NY-13: Biden + 78.2
NY-14: Biden + 57.8
NY-15: Biden + 67.4
NY-16: Biden + 26.3
NY-17: Biden + 19.9
NY-18: Biden + 10.2
NY-19: Biden + 11.6
NY-20: Biden + 17.3
NY-21: Trump + 17.2
NY-22: Biden + 11.3
NY-23: Trump + 18.1
NY-24: Trump + 20.4
NY-25: Biden + 20.6
NY-26: Biden + 24.4

Every swing seat gets bluer to some extent, with all D seats being over Biden + 10.

Snip

Good map; like how you used neighborhood boundaries unlike me who just combined things based on vibes and my knowledge of the city. Also like how you take into greater account some of the intra-party politics that could affect a gerrymander.

Overall, our maps are remarkably simillar in how they generally work to achieve the gerrymander. There are def a few main differences though:

Your map makes a greater effort to shore up NY-03 and NY-04, at the slightly expense of compactness and NY-01. I think people are a bit too overreactive to the 2022 results we saw on Long Island, which were in large part due to local politics and the imbalance between how seriously Ds and Rs took these races. In the long run, NY-03 and NY-04 should be places Dems could lock down with a solid incumbent - especially NY-03 which I think has a lot of underrated upside for Dems with many college-educated suburbs that have gotten bluer since Obama. NY-04 long term I think could shift left, but I wanted to keep the district nested in Hempstead and it's basically impossible to get anything much bluer than Biden + 16 entirely within Hempstead township. Also, I think people shouldn't write off a Biden + 10 NY-01. LaLota won by "only" 11 in 2022 in the current Biden + 0 seat, and many of the educated communities NY-01 takes in have had really solid shifts for Dems, particularly the Hamptons.

In the Central Valley, your config is def a bit more realistic because of the reality of NY politics, the the NY-19 is a bit more of a snake than it has to be, especially since it honestly doesn't get much bluer.

Upstate, I prolly should've kept NY-23 and NY-24 more like their current config, even though i think NY-23 is a bit weird looking.

Overall very good job

[Progressive Pessimist]

My upstate proposal



Every Dem seat in this map would have held in 2022.

Hideous, but effective.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Lol

https://twitter.com/MrSantosNY/status/1734675608737612045?s=20

Does he do parties?

it really is crazy how he can be such a sleazebag but so hilarious in a way that's kinda likable?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/isilanorien/status/1736539057738612772

[politicallefty]

If NY Dems fail to eliminate Lawler, they have failed entirely. He is probably the most insufferable accident of 2022. (At least Santos was and is entertaining.)

[Progressive Pessimist]

If NY Dems fail to eliminate Lawler, they have failed entirely. He is probably the most insufferable accident of 2022. (At least Santos was and is entertaining.)

Even Santos seems to hate him the most of all his New York colleagues.

[Nyvin]

NY-17 is probably "the" easiest R held district to move left on the whole map anyway (just unpack NY-16).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Shared this in the other thread but thought it was worth posting here; Hochul did so bad it's possible to draw 5 Zeldin districts entirely within NYC.

Honestly, the lesson from this is that across cycles in NYC, turnout across different communities can have huge variations which is why this is possible. When redrawing seats in NYC, Dems should be careful that even if a seat seems safe at face value (i.e. Biden + 30), there isn't a way that midterm turnout that has disproportionate turnout from an R-leaning enclave can overwhelm poor Dem turnout in the rest of the district.

I would argue NYC by far sees the most extreme geopolitical sorting amongst a diverse set of groups in the Country, which is why the dynamic only really applies here. Additionally, many of these enclaves have very specific and unique voting habits (i.e. some Orthodox Jewish areas block-voting).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

The redrawn NY-03 is unlikely to be safe for Democrats as long as NY-04 isn't being made into an R sink at the same time.

Have you even looked at Nassau electoral geography? Pushing both districts a good deal to towards the Democrats is literally the easiest thing, cause you are more or less just restoring the allignment from last decade. The most reliable GOP voters are all fairly densely concentrated in the Southeast corner centered on Massapequa. It was previously in NY-02 but then the master divided it up between the two Nassau seats. And Dems are obviously throwing it right back in NY-02, which is gonna become a pack of varying strength depending upon what happens further to the east.

Like the map below has both Nassau seats over Biden+20 and nominally only plurality White. Obviously it comes at the expense of NY-01 only going from Biden+0 to Biden+6 and not like Biden+10 or more, but Nassau is not this GOP bastion that needs to be spiderwebbed.

What overlay are you using and what’s it represent?

The overlay is not native to DRA, its NY towns/hamlets/CDPs. This can be found easily at the census tigerline "place" shapefile and imported accordingly.

Such boundaries are VERY important on Long Island (and the rest of the downstate suburbs) IMO, cause the city lines native to DRA are bulky, uninformative, and don't really show the diversity of suburban communities in the region. I've had it imported in DRA since like 2021 when for some reason it was changed from the towns to the present lines, leading to a mass of squares upstate and uninformative blobs downstate.

You wouldn't happen to have a link for that shapefile import? The lack of NY towns/hamlets has been annoying while playing around with NY.

[Oryxslayer]

You wouldn't happen to have a link for that shapefile import? The lack of NY towns/hamlets has been annoying while playing around with NY.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2020PL/LAYER/PLACE/2020/

New York is state FIP 36. You import it to DRA by custom layers -> Import New -> Choose the downloaded file in it's ZIP format.

Additionally, if you start the process by duplicating the present congressional plan under DRA's "official NY plans," you get the additionally beneficial NYC neighborhood custom layer pre-imported.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You wouldn't happen to have a link for that shapefile import? The lack of NY towns/hamlets has been annoying while playing around with NY.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2020PL/LAYER/PLACE/2020/

New York is state FIP 36. You import it to DRA by custom layers -> Import New -> Choose the downloaded file in it's ZIP format.

Additionally, if you start the process by duplicating the present congressional plan under DRA's "official NY plans," you get the additionally beneficial NYC neighborhood custom layer pre-imported.

"The area of census.gov that you are trying to access is currently unavailable due to maintenance.

We are working to have this area back online as quickly as possible. For assistance, please contact our Call Center at 1-800-923-8282."

so this is why i couldn't find it by myself. lol looks like census shapefile databases are geoblocked lmfao

[Oryxslayer]

You wouldn't happen to have a link for that shapefile import? The lack of NY towns/hamlets has been annoying while playing around with NY.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2020PL/LAYER/PLACE/2020/

New York is state FIP 36. You import it to DRA by custom layers -> Import New -> Choose the downloaded file in it's ZIP format.

Additionally, if you start the process by duplicating the present congressional plan under DRA's "official NY plans," you get the additionally beneficial NYC neighborhood custom layer pre-imported.

"The area of census.gov that you are trying to access is currently unavailable due to maintenance.

We are working to have this area back online as quickly as possible. For assistance, please contact our Call Center at 1-800-923-8282."

so this is why i couldn't find it by myself. lol looks like census shapefile databases are geoblocked lmfao

If anyone else has this issue, use this link:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed639b7b-b184-4b10-89a7-8ae1e4e49ec5

There's a basic map with the CDP shapefile already imported. If you duplicate it, you'll get a editable copy with the file in the custom layers tab.

Alternatively, If you can use this link, the data is in the form of two shapefiles in the downloaded ZIP: IncorperatedPlace and and UnincorperatedPlace. You'll need to create separate ZIPs for each before importing.

https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/59fa9f60e4b0531197affb51

[Spectator]

Gerrymander that sort of works off the current Court drawn map. Central Valley can prolly be cleaned up a bit. Generally a gerrymander that tries to be sneaky, but a few districts like NY-01, NY-02, and NY-16 are pretty obvious. In NYC, NY-10 is drawn as a new 32% Asian opportunity seat. Realistically though, this map likely makes several incumbents upset so doubt it'll happen.








2020 Pres vote by seat:

NY-01: Biden + 11.2
NY-02: Trump + 11.8
NY-03: Biden + 15.1
NY-04: Biden + 15.2
NY-05: Biden + 53.8
NY-06: Biden + 28.3
NY-07: Biden + 56.3
NY-08: Biden + 71.2
NY-09: Biden + 41.3
NY-10: Biden + 38.9
NY-11: Biden + 16.3
NY-12: Biden + 71.1
NY-13: Biden + 78.2
NY-14: Biden + 57.8
NY-15: Biden + 67.4
NY-16: Biden + 26.3
NY-17: Biden + 19.9
NY-18: Biden + 10.2
NY-19: Biden + 11.6
NY-20: Biden + 17.3
NY-21: Trump + 17.2
NY-22: Biden + 11.3
NY-23: Trump + 18.1
NY-24: Trump + 20.4
NY-25: Biden + 20.6
NY-26: Biden + 24.4

Every swing seat gets bluer to some extent, with all D seats being over Biden + 10.

That is brutally effective and probably the most aesthetically-pleasing gerrymander I've seen to date. Well done. My only quibble is that you can probably make NY-01 a little bluer and NY-02 a little redder. And, as you mentioned, NY-22 could be made a few points bluer, but I don't know how necessary that is. Williams seems far from a Katko. You could probably shore up NY-19 a bit by splitting Albany and forcing NY-20 to go more north.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gerrymander that sort of works off the current Court drawn map. Central Valley can prolly be cleaned up a bit. Generally a gerrymander that tries to be sneaky, but a few districts like NY-01, NY-02, and NY-16 are pretty obvious. In NYC, NY-10 is drawn as a new 32% Asian opportunity seat. Realistically though, this map likely makes several incumbents upset so doubt it'll happen.








2020 Pres vote by seat:

NY-01: Biden + 11.2
NY-02: Trump + 11.8
NY-03: Biden + 15.1
NY-04: Biden + 15.2
NY-05: Biden + 53.8
NY-06: Biden + 28.3
NY-07: Biden + 56.3
NY-08: Biden + 71.2
NY-09: Biden + 41.3
NY-10: Biden + 38.9
NY-11: Biden + 16.3
NY-12: Biden + 71.1
NY-13: Biden + 78.2
NY-14: Biden + 57.8
NY-15: Biden + 67.4
NY-16: Biden + 26.3
NY-17: Biden + 19.9
NY-18: Biden + 10.2
NY-19: Biden + 11.6
NY-20: Biden + 17.3
NY-21: Trump + 17.2
NY-22: Biden + 11.3
NY-23: Trump + 18.1
NY-24: Trump + 20.4
NY-25: Biden + 20.6
NY-26: Biden + 24.4

Every swing seat gets bluer to some extent, with all D seats being over Biden + 10.

That is brutally effective and probably the most aesthetically-pleasing gerrymander I've seen to date. Well done. My only quibble is that you can probably make NY-01 a little bluer and NY-02 a little redder. And, as you mentioned, NY-22 could be made a few points bluer, but I don't know how necessary that is. Williams seems far from a Katko. You could probably shore up NY-19 a bit by splitting Albany and forcing NY-20 to go more north.

Ye thank you for your feedback! My map was generally meant to be a gerrymander that still generally tries to be compact and Acknowledge city boundaries and communities of interests. One can make NY-01 a bit bluer, but doing so would force the arm connecting the Hamptons to Islip and Huntingdon to become ever skinnier, which would start to look too absurd for my preferences. I also generally tried to make NY-01 better long for Dems by putting some more educated precincts into the district, even if those precincts aren't as blue. That's why I made less of an effort to take in all the blue parts of Islip for instance - generally low turnout and low college attainment.

Also, it's actually pretty hard to make NY-22 much bluer in this config because NY-19 already takes in Ithaca. If I sent NY-20 north allowing NY-19 to take in some of Albany, it could shed Ithaca and give it to NY-22, making NY-22 practically Safe D, but honestly that just puts NY-20 too much at risk for my liking; in this map it's "only" Biden + 17 so giving away too much of Albany could def make it vulnerable.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You wouldn't happen to have a link for that shapefile import? The lack of NY towns/hamlets has been annoying while playing around with NY.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2020PL/LAYER/PLACE/2020/

New York is state FIP 36. You import it to DRA by custom layers -> Import New -> Choose the downloaded file in it's ZIP format.

Additionally, if you start the process by duplicating the present congressional plan under DRA's "official NY plans," you get the additionally beneficial NYC neighborhood custom layer pre-imported.

"The area of census.gov that you are trying to access is currently unavailable due to maintenance.

We are working to have this area back online as quickly as possible. For assistance, please contact our Call Center at 1-800-923-8282."

so this is why i couldn't find it by myself. lol looks like census shapefile databases are geoblocked lmfao

If anyone else has this issue, use this link:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed639b7b-b184-4b10-89a7-8ae1e4e49ec5

There's a basic map with the CDP shapefile already imported. If you duplicate it, you'll get a editable copy with the file in the custom layers tab.

Thanks so much for that Oryx! It can be so annoying how US govt websites geoblock access.

[Oryxslayer]

Out of curiosity I decided to explore if one could shift NY-05 eastwards and revitalize the old NY-09, since at the moment there is no Dem resistance to cutting a Long Island seat. To my surprise the alignment works, just winds up impractical for several reasons. (Just ignore almost everything west of Queens, that wasn't my focus so nothing changes there unless forced to)



So for those who don't know, NY-09 was the numbering assigned during the final iteration of a district mostly in central and southwestern Queens. However, there was a district hugging the central 'spine' of Queens for much longer than the last two decades of it's existence that are pictured below. It was Schumer's district for a time after reapportionment forced the merger of his south Brooklyn seat and this one.





Which brings me to the next point: the reasoning behind the district. It was a Jewish seat, serving the communities as they existed prior to the most recent generations of NYC immigrants. It made sense for the (at the time less Russian Jewish) parts of South Brooklyn to be paired with the seat.

By 2010 though, everything was working against this district's continued existence, which is why it got the reapportionment axe. Demographically, the electorate had changed in all constituent parts. Queens has an exploding Asian and especially Chinese population, necessitating the creation of a new seat in the region using pieces from NY-09. South Brooklyn meanwhile was fast becoming GOP turf, and this seat had too much of it. Anthony Weiner was the last democrat to represent it. He of course resigned in a whirlwind of scandal which allowed the GOP to have a brief 1-year special election stint in the seat before it's destruction.

This revived seat would not be too much like its predecessor. Demographically, the dominant Dem electorates here are South Asian and Caribbean-Americans of various backgrounds, with only a small hint of the older (mostly Jewish) Liberal White groups. Most Whites here are Republicans. These new COIs mean the district goes into Nassau rather than Brooklyn, since that's where the spillover is, beyond the partisan reasons for not wanting South Brooklyn. The new seat would be a new majority-minority seat. It also shifts NY-05 a good deal out of NYC and is now majority Nassau. However, this NY-05 seat is more African-American by VAP than a lot of Queens-only hypothetical alternatives.

Now though comes the two big roadblocks against anything like this happening. Firstly, the routes into NYC are now more or less blocked by the minority districts. This means NY-03 can't easily get overwhelmingly Dem by grabbing chunks of central Queens, like under most continuity maps. It also must take in a larger share of the Long Island population, since shifting the districts around means that there is an excess of population. That all means NY-03 must take from Suffolk and NY-01's potential voters, leaving that seat like here at Biden+6.

Second, Meeks would probably never approve it. He's a Queens politician, not a Nassau one. Even though his seat isn't really dropping African American areas, he's losing comparatively similar NYC minority communities.

So overall, a fun little What-If and nothing more.

[patzer]

Gerrymander that sort of works off the current Court drawn map. Central Valley can prolly be cleaned up a bit. Generally a gerrymander that tries to be sneaky, but a few districts like NY-01, NY-02, and NY-16 are pretty obvious. In NYC, NY-10 is drawn as a new 32% Asian opportunity seat. Realistically though, this map likely makes several incumbents upset so doubt it'll happen.

Every swing seat gets bluer to some extent, with all D seats being over Biden + 10.

One thing that would be worth considering is conceding a fourth upstate seat in return for making all of the others ironclad safe. Here, the closest Democratic district would be the 18th at Biden+20.4. Is it worth conceding a seat in return for making the others fully safe even in bad midterms/Katko-like performances? I'm not sure, but it's worth considering.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gerrymander that sort of works off the current Court drawn map. Central Valley can prolly be cleaned up a bit. Generally a gerrymander that tries to be sneaky, but a few districts like NY-01, NY-02, and NY-16 are pretty obvious. In NYC, NY-10 is drawn as a new 32% Asian opportunity seat. Realistically though, this map likely makes several incumbents upset so doubt it'll happen.

Every swing seat gets bluer to some extent, with all D seats being over Biden + 10.

One thing that would be worth considering is conceding a fourth upstate seat in return for making all of the others ironclad safe. Here, the closest Democratic district would be the 18th at Biden+20.4. Is it worth conceding a seat in return for making the others fully safe even in bad midterms/Katko-like performances? I'm not sure, but it's worth considering.

Def an interesting idea, and one that may be more appealing post-2022.

However, in my view it's still not worth it to fully concede a 4th R seat because at that point, your upstate D seat becoming D packs in themselves while it locks in 4 upstate R seats, which wouldn't even be the case in a normal court-drawn map. Especially since the court-drawn map only had 3 Trump seats upstate, and upstate NY isn't a place where Rs regularly have consistent big overperformances, I think this is unlikely.

I could see Ds doing something in between though, where they keep say NY-19 as a competitive seat in exchange for making all the other Biden seats safe.

I could see an argument for something in between

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not against another upstate Republican vote sink.

Then again, it might just be me having low standards with how the state’s congressional delegation looks now.

[Atlas Force]

In order to defeat Williams (who only won by 1 in a Biden+7.6 district), New York Democrats should not need to help out Molinaro (only won by 1.6 in a Biden+4.7 district), and I do not think they will.

[patzer]

In order to defeat Williams (who only won by 1 in a Biden+7.6 district), New York Democrats should not need to help out Molinaro (only won by 1.6 in a Biden+4.7 district), and I do not think they will.

It would also mean comfortably defeating Lawler, of course.

But yes, there would only be a need to do so if they believe that trends are working against them quite a lot.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1738279816581808474?s=20

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1738280788771184842?s=20

For anyone who wants to test their maps under the 2022 NY GOP wave, Benjamin has been nice enough to provide the data here. This was no mean feat, since NY has one of the worst records of election data transparency in the county. Big shout outs.

Its not that difficult to download the data and then match to geography in GIS, using shapefiles provided by downloading from your redistricting site of choice.

[Oryxslayer]

In depth analysis:

I calc'ed the major 2022 races for this map using the data painstakingly researched then generously provided by Ben. They are as follows:

Statewilde: 53.2% Hochul - 46.8% Zeldin (Hochul+6.4), 56.8% Schumer - 42.8% Pinion (Schumer+14)




NY-01: 46.1% Hochul - 53.8% Zeldin (Zeldin+7.7), 48.5% Schumer - 51.1% Pinion (Pinion+2.6)

NY-02: 33.3% Hochul - 66.7% Zeldin (Zeldin+33.4), 36% Schumer - 63.7% Pinion (Pinion+27.7)

NY-03: 48.5% Hochul - 51.4% Zeldin (Zeldin+2.9), 52% Schumer - 47.6% Pinion (Schumer+4.3)

NY-04: 50.1% Hochul - 49.8% Zeldin (Hochul+0.3), 53.4% Schumer - 46.3% Pinion (Schumer+7)

NY-05: 65.1% Hochul - 34.8% Zeldin (Hochul+30.3), 68.6% Schumer - 31% Pinion (Schumer+37.6)

NY-06: 58% Hochul - 41.8% Zeldin (Hochul+16.1), 63.3% Schumer - 36% Pinion (Schumer+27.3)

NY-07: 74% Hochul - 25.8% Zeldin (Hochul+48.2), 79.6% Schumer - 19.6% Pinion (Schumer+60)

NY-08: 72% Hochul - 27.9% Zeldin (Hochul+44.1), 75.4% Schumer - 24.1% Pinion (Schumer+51.3)

NY-09: 67% Hochul - 32.8% Zeldin (Hochul+34.2), 71.3% Schumer - 28% Pinion (Schumer+49.7)

NY-10: 52.1% Hochul - 47.7% Zeldin (Hochul+4.4), 55.2% Schumer - 44.3% Pinion (Schumer+10.9)

NY-11: 67.4% Hochul - 32.4% Zeldin (Hochul+35), 71.3% Schumer - 28% Pinion (Schumer+43.3)

NY-12: 80.3% Hochul - 19.5% Zeldin (Hochul+60.8 ), 83.3% Schumer - 16.2% Pinion (Schumer+67.2)

NY-13: 86.4% Hochul - 13.4% Zeldin (Hochul+73), 88.8% Schumer - 10.6% Pinion (Schumer+78.2)

NY-14: 77.8% Hochul - 22% Zeldin (Hochul+55.8 ), 80.8% Schumer - 18.5% Pinion (Schumer+62.2)

NY-15: 73.2% Hochul - 26.7% Zeldin (Hochul+46.4), 76.4% Schumer - 23% Pinion (Schumer+53.4)

NY-16: 54.5% Hochul - 45.3% Zeldin (Hochul+9.2), 60.1% Schumer - 39.5% Pinion (Schumer+20.5)

NY-17: 56.4% Hochul - 43.5% Zeldin (Hochul+12.9), 58.9% Schumer - 40.8% Pinion (Schumer+18.1)

NY-18: 49.7% Hochul - 50.2% Zeldin (Zeldin+0.5), 52.2% Schumer - 47.2% Pinion (Schumer+5)

NY-19: 47.7% Hochul - 52.1% Zeldin (Zeldin+4.4), 50.9% Schumer - 48.5% Pinion (Schumer+2.4)

NY-20: 51.9% Hochul - 47.9% Zeldin (Hochul+4), 55.2% Schumer - 44.2% Pinion (Schumer+11)

NY-21: 33% Hochul - 66.8% Zeldin (Zeldin+33.8 ), 38.5% Schumer - 60.9% Pinion (Pinion+22.4)

NY-22: 49.2% Hochul - 50.6% Zeldin (Zeldin+1.4), 54.2% Schumer - 45.2% Pinion (Schumer+9)

NY-23: 34.8% Hochul - 65% Zeldin (Zeldin+30.3), 38.1% Schumer - 61.4% Pinion (Pinion+23.3)

NY-24: 30.8% Hochul - 69.1% Zeldin (Zeldin+38.3), 35.4% Schumer - 64.1% Pinion (Pinion+28.7)

NY-25: 54.3% Hochul - 45.5% Zeldin (Hochul+8.8 ), 57.2% Schumer - 42.2% Pinion (Schumer+15.1)

NY-26: 58.6% Hochul - 41.2% Zeldin (Hochul+17.3), 61.4% Schumer - 38% Pinion (Schumer+23.4)

So there's a few takeaway's from this analysis:

1) It isn't here, but examining the data reveals just how bad minority turnout was, compared to it's usual baselines, when matched against White precincts of any sort. NY-16 and NY-17 kinda show that above, since they are both drawn with comparable 2020 results. But the poor turnout among the nonwhite half of the electorate in NY-16 means it has a worse Gov Dem result than NY-17, something that flips in the Senate race. And that's of course cause poor minority turnout gives the Hasidic enclaves an oversized weight to their swingy behavior.

2) The Gov race is so close that it's basically impossible to get Hochul to win the marginal seats that are presently GOP-held, at least without tentacles that I tried to avoid in this map. However, even a decent Dem-leaning plan should see them all snap into line with a result not much better than hers. Schumer's is still an underperformance from historical averages and he wins everything except NY-01 where Zeldin gave every Republican a home-region boost. So for the guy who was a few weeks ago saying Dems should concede seats so they could win districts under an expected Schumer-style result, that seems to not be needed.

3) Staten-Manhattan in NY-10 just keeps looking better. I estimated earlier the result was around 5% for Hochul, and that seems to be the case. Reminder, the 2020 result here is only Biden+18, less than in NY-04 and somewhat comparable to NY-03 and NY-20. But it hold's up better than all of them under the Hochul stress test. Manhattan Liberal Whites remain some of the most inflexible voters in the state - perhaps the nation - both in terms of turnout and partisanship.

[politicallefty]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I have to say I'm struck by how weak Schumer's performance was in Long Island. There has to be some serious temptation to cede two R districts in Long Island. I imagine a lot will depend on how the NY-03 special turns out.