MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

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Good to see Atlas Tan and Blue avatars certain that Whitmer is headed for a landslide loss in her reelect. I don't know who gonna win, I don't know who gonna lose. All I know is that it'll be kinda close. The current GOP frontrunner wants to repeal the state income tax which I mean I don't hate.

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It is worth noting that the Democrats have had a lucky streak in Michigan as of late. With the top GOP contender (James Craig) potentially having just doomed himself from the nomination and Democrats having overperformed in several MI statewide elections. I still think it's a toss-up but of the toss-ups I'd now argue that this is the most likely to remain Democrat.

The GOP has shot themselves in the foot over and over again. Like in hindsight Slotkin and Stevens should've been more serious targets in 2020 and they should've taken MI-Sen 2020 more seriously. MI-Sen 2014 was also embarrassing.

Also on the statewide office levels, the GOP always seems to run people outside the mainstream who really struggle to connect with voters and come off as either too extreme and/or too in it for themselves.

Considering they could still increase margins in many communities in the state and the main Dem vote get; Detroit, has been shrinking, the GOP really needs to take the state more serious long term, especially since the new maps make the state legistlature more competative and a Dem trifecta isn't out of the question this decade.

Wayne county isn’t really shrinking very fast and the main places gaining population Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, and the Detroit suburbs are all rapidly trending D so I don’t think this is as important as you’re making it out to be.

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Gosh darn, I bet on Craig for the nomination a few months ago and he got kicked off the ballot, a couple weeks ago I bet on Ryan Kelley and now he gets arrested just my luck.

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Gosh darn, I bet on Craig for the nomination a few months ago and he got kicked off the ballot, a couple weeks ago I bet on Ryan Kelley and now he gets arrested just my luck.

Can you bet on Dixon next?

No GM, just to spite you I'm betting on Georgia to win the SEC now.

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Voting for the first time in a general election for Whitmer, gonna register and vote when I get to college in East Lansing so I can vote for Slotkin in MI-8 and Democrats in actually competitive/winning elections instead of my home CD which stretches across the entire Southern border of the state.

In my friend group, of the in state guys who are voting in Michigan, I know my friend and I are voting for Whitmer, he's from Detroit suburbs though. Another friend from the same suburb as him I know he and friend number 3 are voting GOP.

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https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1572246813163548672

Literally gilead, womens healthcare products are now compared to fentanyl?! Are we going to treat viagra the same way?

Like... one of these is a contraceptive one of these is not. They're not the same, even if you make a decentish point.

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https://twitter.com/craigdmauger/status/1576901181888090113?s=21&t=Hkz9TCSzU...

"and put one woman from Holland in jail!"

Good. People from SGP Ottawa County don't deserve rights.

My pawpaw took me to the tulip festival in Holland when I was little, he didn't vote though. Other than for Nixon in 1972 and Obama in 2008, though he tacitly supported Wallace, Perot, Reagan at different points

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1576970473640189952

I really like Umich Voters stuff, I haven't seen a single pro-Tudor Dixon ad, I've seen the Tudor Dixon wants to stop abortion and that she is a DeVos puppet.

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I filled out my absentee ballot today, I voted Yes on Term Limits, Yes on Abortion, and Yes on Voting Rights, then I voted Democratic Party line.

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Comrade Whitmer and her far left agenda. Dixon/John James/GOP line + conservative BackTheBlue judges.

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Knock it off with the trolling.

Unless something was removed, this all seems very tame.

There was.

For no reason

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God the Whitmer/Shapiro (or vice versa) ticket in 2028 is going to be so powerful (if the Democratic Party hasn't been banned by then).

Yep, it'll be yet another milque-toast snoozefest, as they go down, I foresee President DeSantis / Vice President Deb Fischer defeats Whitmer/Shapiro at the 2028 election, with a map like : https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=hz51 , a landslide for the era, In 2032 I have heard that it will be a lot like 1908, but for Secretary of State Rand Paul, who will continue President DeSantis efforts to put America First and add onto to that by auditing the FED and returning America to the Gold Standad. Get ready for some suffering liberals...

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https://twitter.com/TudorDixon/status/1583080877772648449?s=20&t=eQygRZdc2RmcGNouppLACw

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I could see Whitmer winning anywhere from 3% to 12% depends how independents vote. Most Republicans hate her. She come across as somewhat moderate and likeable though, Dixon is unknown and you only see ads attacking Whitmer now not really about Dixon herself, but Whitmer has been running ads attacking Dixon for months, abortion and tax cuts for rich people like Betsey DeVos who is funding Dixon.

Yeah, important to note that everything that I've seen from the few ads that RGA/DeVos are running (since Dixon can't afford any herself), are all anti-Whitmer. There doesn't appear to be anything actually propping up Dixon positively.

You've seen anti-Whitmer ads? I haven't seen any, but I primarily use NFL Network, NBA TV, Youtube, and Hulu.

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I could see Whitmer winning anywhere from 3% to 12% depends how independents vote. Most Republicans hate her. She come across as somewhat moderate and likeable though, Dixon is unknown and you only see ads attacking Whitmer now not really about Dixon herself, but Whitmer has been running ads attacking Dixon for months, abortion and tax cuts for rich people like Betsey DeVos who is funding Dixon.

Yeah, important to note that everything that I've seen from the few ads that RGA/DeVos are running (since Dixon can't afford any herself), are all anti-Whitmer. There doesn't appear to be anything actually propping up Dixon positively.

You've seen anti-Whitmer ads? I haven't seen any, but I primarily use NFL Network, NBA TV, Youtube, and Hulu.

RGA has been running some, but I don't think any of their buys have been that huge.

I just asked my Dad who watches Cable TV in MI, and there's been by far more Pro-Whitmer/Anti-Dixon ads compared to anti-Whitmer and pro-Dixon, we live in Upton's current district which I think is all of the southern border of MI now with redistricting. 

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https://twitter.com/detroitnews/status/1582937035261607936

The Detroit News endorses Dixon

Late

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My roommate is voting for Whitmer, though he's a single-issue Pot voter, Ngl I think  dude is always stoned. I've never seen him sober.

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I'm very curious to see how the Governor race goes by CD. Michigan has a ton of competitive districts, including like 3 possible tipping points, now and it could have implications down the ballot.

In 2018 Whitmer won comfortably statewide, but she won only 7 districts - the same 7 that are represented by Democrats in Congress. However, she came within a point of winning two of the 7 Schuette districts (both are in light red, in Southwest MI, and represented by impeacher Republicans - Meijer's and Upton's seats).

Obviously, redistricting eliminated a seat and changed some of the districts up, so 2022 will be a very different story on the CD level compared to 2018 (one obvious change: MI03 will definitely vote for Whitmer this year now that it's been moved to the left considerably).

It'll probably be, Dixon wins 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, and 10 while Whitmer wins 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, and 13. Though if Dixon wins she'll probably make 8 (Flint) extremely close and 10 (Lansing) pretty close. I think both Kildee and Slotkin are going to win no matter what.

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I'm very curious to see how the Governor race goes by CD. Michigan has a ton of competitive districts, including like 3 possible tipping points, now and it could have implications down the ballot.

In 2018 Whitmer won comfortably statewide, but she won only 7 districts - the same 7 that are represented by Democrats in Congress. However, she came within a point of winning two of the 7 Schuette districts (both are in light red, in Southwest MI, and represented by impeacher Republicans - Meijer's and Upton's seats).

Obviously, redistricting eliminated a seat and changed some of the districts up, so 2022 will be a very different story on the CD level compared to 2018 (one obvious change: MI03 will definitely vote for Whitmer this year now that it's been moved to the left considerably).

It'll probably be, Dixon wins 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, and 10 while Whitmer wins 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, and 13. Though if Dixon wins she'll probably make 8 (Flint) extremely close and 10 (Lansing) pretty close. I think both Kildee and Slotkin are going to win no matter what.

I personally think Whitmer wins 10 as well given Dem downballot support there; it voted for Peters in 2020 for instance despite Trump also carrying the district. Honestly, Whitmer has a good balance of support to narrowly win 3,7, and 8 as well (8 is home to Lansing, her home turf). Basically a simillar coalition to Peters 2020 but with a boost in the Lansing area and slightly less extreme polarization.

Based on the new maps District 8 is Flint, District 7 is Slotkin's district and home to Lansing

Source: I'm literally living in the heart of 7 right now.

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Being originally from Michigan, I can say with certainty that MI-GOP is allergic to good statewide candidates, and Whitmer is safe.

Like? They had the Governors a statewide trifecta of statewide and legislature for 8 years, 4 years ago, held the AG and SOS from 03-19 for AG and 95-19 for SoS, Gov from 1991-2003 to 2011-2019, the Michigan GOP was dominant in state-level politics for 2 decades even when it consistently went for Democrats at a federal level, I'd say John James is a good statewide candidate he just got pretty unlucky in bad years for his party, but he'll be back in 2024 or 2026 for a crack at Governor or Senate. James held Stabenow to her closest election since she beat Spencer Abraham in 2000. Does GOP = Bad in your mind really overpower any logical thought?

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I think someone was asking about this here recently.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1587833318304882689

Based on my own gut feeling, I'd say Yes will pass close-ish to the Glenngariff poll