MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How's this race going? Gretchen Whitmer is one of my favorite governors in the country.

Is she likely to win or what?

So, no answer?

Yes, she's likely to win, although she's not far enough ahead to consider it safe.  538 gives her a 91% chance to win, which seems a bit high IMO.

[Dave from Michigan]

I could see Whitmer winning anywhere from 3% to 12% depends how independents vote. Most Republicans hate her. She come across as somewhat moderate and likeable though, Dixon is unknown and you only see ads attacking Whitmer now not really about Dixon herself, but Whitmer has been running ads attacking Dixon for months, abortion and tax cuts for rich people like Betsey DeVos who is funding Dixon.

[wbrocks67]

I could see Whitmer winning anywhere from 3% to 12% depends how independents vote. Most Republicans hate her. She come across as somewhat moderate and likeable though, Dixon is unknown and you only see ads attacking Whitmer now not really about Dixon herself, but Whitmer has been running ads attacking Dixon for months, abortion and tax cuts for rich people like Betsey DeVos who is funding Dixon.

Yeah, important to note that everything that I've seen from the few ads that RGA/DeVos are running (since Dixon can't afford any herself), are all anti-Whitmer. There doesn't appear to be anything actually propping up Dixon positively.

[Orwell]

https://twitter.com/TudorDixon/status/1583080877772648449?s=20&t=eQygRZdc2RmcGNouppLACw

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I could see Whitmer winning anywhere from 3% to 12% depends how independents vote. Most Republicans hate her. She come across as somewhat moderate and likeable though, Dixon is unknown and you only see ads attacking Whitmer now not really about Dixon herself, but Whitmer has been running ads attacking Dixon for months, abortion and tax cuts for rich people like Betsey DeVos who is funding Dixon.

Yeah, important to note that everything that I've seen from the few ads that RGA/DeVos are running (since Dixon can't afford any herself), are all anti-Whitmer. There doesn't appear to be anything actually propping up Dixon positively.

The fact Dixon can't afford ads herself is of course a strong sign that she is primed to be defined before she can define herself, which is the Obama 2012 playbook.

[Orwell]

I could see Whitmer winning anywhere from 3% to 12% depends how independents vote. Most Republicans hate her. She come across as somewhat moderate and likeable though, Dixon is unknown and you only see ads attacking Whitmer now not really about Dixon herself, but Whitmer has been running ads attacking Dixon for months, abortion and tax cuts for rich people like Betsey DeVos who is funding Dixon.

Yeah, important to note that everything that I've seen from the few ads that RGA/DeVos are running (since Dixon can't afford any herself), are all anti-Whitmer. There doesn't appear to be anything actually propping up Dixon positively.

You've seen anti-Whitmer ads? I haven't seen any, but I primarily use NFL Network, NBA TV, Youtube, and Hulu.

[wbrocks67]

I could see Whitmer winning anywhere from 3% to 12% depends how independents vote. Most Republicans hate her. She come across as somewhat moderate and likeable though, Dixon is unknown and you only see ads attacking Whitmer now not really about Dixon herself, but Whitmer has been running ads attacking Dixon for months, abortion and tax cuts for rich people like Betsey DeVos who is funding Dixon.

Yeah, important to note that everything that I've seen from the few ads that RGA/DeVos are running (since Dixon can't afford any herself), are all anti-Whitmer. There doesn't appear to be anything actually propping up Dixon positively.

You've seen anti-Whitmer ads? I haven't seen any, but I primarily use NFL Network, NBA TV, Youtube, and Hulu.

RGA has been running some, but I don't think any of their buys have been that huge.

[Orwell]

I could see Whitmer winning anywhere from 3% to 12% depends how independents vote. Most Republicans hate her. She come across as somewhat moderate and likeable though, Dixon is unknown and you only see ads attacking Whitmer now not really about Dixon herself, but Whitmer has been running ads attacking Dixon for months, abortion and tax cuts for rich people like Betsey DeVos who is funding Dixon.

Yeah, important to note that everything that I've seen from the few ads that RGA/DeVos are running (since Dixon can't afford any herself), are all anti-Whitmer. There doesn't appear to be anything actually propping up Dixon positively.

You've seen anti-Whitmer ads? I haven't seen any, but I primarily use NFL Network, NBA TV, Youtube, and Hulu.

RGA has been running some, but I don't think any of their buys have been that huge.

I just asked my Dad who watches Cable TV in MI, and there's been by far more Pro-Whitmer/Anti-Dixon ads compared to anti-Whitmer and pro-Dixon, we live in Upton's current district which I think is all of the southern border of MI now with redistricting. 

[citizenZ]

https://twitter.com/detroitnews/status/1582937035261607936

The Detroit News endorses Dixon

[Orwell]

https://twitter.com/detroitnews/status/1582937035261607936

The Detroit News endorses Dixon

Late

[Arizona Iced Tea]

RCP now has Dixon winning in their projection

[bagelman]

Is Dixon getting some late momentum or something? It seemed like this race was in the bag at the beginning of the month.

[Calthrina950]

Is Dixon getting some late momentum or something? It seemed like this race was in the bag at the beginning of the month.

There appears to be late momentum occurring here, as the race has tightened and Dixon has consolidated the Republican base here. She apparently did well in the debate, and that might have swayed some undecideds in her direction. Perhaps she is also benefiting from the general Republican rise in the polls that seems to be occurring.

[Orwell]

My roommate is voting for Whitmer, though he's a single-issue Pot voter, Ngl I think  dude is always stoned. I've never seen him sober.

[Ferguson97]

Is Dixon getting some late momentum or something? It seemed like this race was in the bag at the beginning of the month.

It’s still in the bag, don’t let the hacks gaslight you

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RCP now has Dixon winning in their projection

Ha no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pollster take ever R leaning poll at face value even on the forum, because it has an R leading  but I never liked HOCHUL that was President Johnson and Sir Muhammad candidates

[Ferguson97]

They had a debate tonight, but it didn't seem to get any attention here.

Whitmer had a great line "Do you really think books are more dangerous to children than guns? Do you really think that?"

[wbrocks67]

Her and Mastriano would really get along greatly

https://twitter.com/emsteck/status/1585663292650954753

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good grief.  She's unhinged.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Her and Mastriano would really get along greatly

https://twitter.com/emsteck/status/1585663292650954753

So democrats have been trying to destroy the United States ever since 1861…


That is a take

[President Johnson]

Her and Mastriano would really get along greatly

https://twitter.com/emsteck/status/1585663292650954753

Republican candidates and officials constantly out-stupid themselves every time... for years.

[Duke of York]

Her and Mastriano would really get along greatly

https://twitter.com/emsteck/status/1585663292650954753

Republican candidates and officials constantly out-stupid themselves every time... for years.

and there is a decent chance Dixon could win.

[Ljube]

Dixon is still better than the wicked witch of the north.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm very curious to see how the Governor race goes by CD. Michigan has a ton of competitive districts, including like 3 possible tipping points, now and it could have implications down the ballot.