MI - Monmouth: Biden +7 , Bernie +5

[MT Treasurer]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

[MT Treasurer]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

I'm not sure how MI will be the tipping point Senate race. It might vote right of AZ-SEN and maybe ME-SEN, but then it would still be the 49th seat for Democrats.

Contrary to popular belief, many of these states (MT, NC, MI, ME, etc.) aren’t actually guaranteed to vote for the same party for President and Senate just because it barely happened in 2016. James winning narrowly wouldn’t exactly tell me a lot about races like MT-SEN or NC-SEN, for instance. Split-ticket voting is still a thing.

[MT Treasurer]

I know, I think AZ-SEN could vote left of MI-SEN even if Trump does better in AZ than MI. I just don't think it's that likely that James wins while Daines and Tillis lose (though they're not unbeatable titans by any means), though obviously MT-SEN will be much closer than MT-PRES.

Almost as silly as suggesting that Roy Blunt would win by less than Ron Johnson.