LA-04 Runoff, Predictions and Results

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Fleming better pray for Carmouche's lead in Caddo to move under 60%.  Rural Caddo might be okay for Fleming, but he will continued to be massacred in Shreveport.

How much is left of Shreveport still out.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Good news for Carmouche. With 320 precincts in he was trailing by a point, but now with 365 in, he's leading by 4.16 points.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Haha, Jefferson is still down 10 points with 80/492 in. Could he lose?

[Lief 🗽]

I wouldn't mind, at all, losing LA-02 and picking up LA-04.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Good news for Carmouche: 91 precincts in Caddo left.
Good news for Fleming: 100 precincts in Beauregard, Bossier and Vernon left.

[Ronnie]

Just as I thought, Caddo is really messing up Fleming's numbers.  Bossier won't be enough for him if these margins hold up.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Haha, Jefferson is still down 10 points with 80/492 in. Could he lose?

Wow, now he's down 12 points. What's remarkable is that it's still 80 in.


Carmouche has a 3.33 point lead with 399/640 in.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Based solely on the results that have come in so far, I would predict that Carmouche and Cao win. LOL.

[The Mikado]

JEFFERSON'S DOWN 20 POINTS!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Holy crap, Jefferson is down 19 points with 139/492 in.

Carmouche has a 2.75 point lead with 417/640 in.

[Ronnie]

I think it would be the upset of the century if a Republican wins in New Orleans.

[Sam Spade]

Carmouche should win by a few points (probably his present margin), providing of course, that the precincts come in are the same as the ones already in.  Bossier Parish being nearly all out is the one caveat.  Fleming's weak performance down South and oddly enough in his home county is what is doing him in.

Be patient on LA-02 - the black precincts report late there.

Turnout appears to have been really godawful - really godawful every where.  Probably will end up being a third of election day maximum..

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think it would be the upset of the century if a Republican wins in New Orleans.

It would turn a few heads wouldn't it. That Louisiana for you.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Carmouche's lead is down to 1.33 points with 465/640 in.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Carmouche is up 3.35 points with 529/640 in. He should win this.

[Ronnie]

I think this is becoming a done deal.  Bossier isn't enough for Fleming, and Caddo is only at 42% reporting.

Whatever, Carmouche is great for a Democrat and I said earlier that I would be happy with either one.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bossier is still out, and Fleming will win it, but the question is, will it be by enough?

[Ronnie]

Bossier is still out, and Fleming will win it, but the question is, will it be by enough?

In any case, it won't be nearly enough to make up the precincts still left in Shreveport.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bossier is still out, and Fleming will win it, but the question is, will it be by enough?

In any case, it won't be nearly enough to make up the precincts still left in Shreveport.

Is that what's left in Caddo? There are only 27 precincts out there.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What's left of DeSoto. Is that all AA territory or something.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I call it for Carmouche. He's up 2.72 points, and 27 of the remaining 73 precints are from Caddo.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Huh. Red River 100% in, Carmouche got 53%. Landrieu got 59% there last month.

At least he won it.

[Sam Spade]

With these counties, it's often hard to make predictions because you have no clue what's coming in - white or black?  Especially in the rural areas, black areas don't necessarily report before white areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the SOS website is right, the rural areas are basically all in now.

[Sam Spade]

My guess is that Carmouche wins by about 1-2,000 votes.  Provided the precincts left aren't white.