🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Maps of the 1st round of the PSD leadership election:



Rio was able to win the big urban areas in Porto and Aveiro, and was able to hold on to considerable support in places where Montenegro and Pinto Luz were hoping for huge margins for them, like Braga and Lisbon.

[Mike88]

Interesting that Montenegro carried the PSD-heavy areas of the middle of Portugal like Leiria but that Rio nonetheless did well in the North.

He did win a lot of places in the center of the country, but not by big margins. For example, in Leiria city, Montenegro got just 2 more votes than Rio. The same happened in Viseu city, where Montenegro polled just 1 vote ahead of Rio. Plus, Rio racked up ridiculous margins in Porto and Aveiro, places where Montenegro was hoping to gain some support.

The media is basically saying Rio will probably win the second round. Miguel Pinto Luz didn't endorse any candidate, and his supporters don't like Montenegro that much. Some newspapers, like Expresso, say that the PSD base dislikes more Montenegro than Rio and that they didn't forget the January 2019 attempted "coup" by Montenegro. But, only next Saturday we'll know for sure.

[Mike88]

Also today, Local by-election in Caniçada e Soengas parish, Vieira do Minho, Braga district:

584 voters are registered to vote and there are 2 lists in the ballot: Independent and the PS. The incumbent is an independent, who is running for reelection.

[Mike88]

Caniçada e Soengas by-election - Independent hold:

71.2% Independent, 5 seats
25.6% PS, 2
  3.3% Blank/Invalid

73.6% Turnout

[Mike88]

Tensions continue in Livre: Joacine Katar Moreira could be booted out from her MP seat next weekend.

https://twitter.com/dinheiro_vivo/status/1216772282250493953

Livre holds vote to remove Joacine Katar Moreira from parliament.

Livre continues deeply divided towards Joacine Katar Moreira. Next weekend, the party's congress will be held and one vote demands the resignation of Joacine Katar Moreira as a MP, and if she refuses that, the solution is to strip the party's support for her, meaning she would become an Independent MP and Livre loses representation in Parliament.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Rio and Montenegro start gaining Pinto Luz supporters in almost equal rate so far.

48 hours after the 1st round of the PSD leadership election, both Rio and Montenegro start gaining support from Miguel Pinto Luz supporters. Montenegro, so far, has gain the support of the PSD district leader in Setúbal and former general-secretaries of the PSD Matos Rosa and Miguel Relvas. While Rio has gained the support of former Cavaco Silva minister, Mira Amaral, and the head list MPs from Aveiro and Setúbal. At the same time, both sides are trying to mobilize their voters for a 2nd round, as fears of demobilization are real.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: PSD-Madeira boycots the second round.

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1217196261545259013

PSD-Madeira will boycott second round of the party' elections.

The PSD-Madeira members will not vote in next Saturday's second round of the leadership election. The leadership of PSD-Madeira made this decision to boycott the elections after the electoral commission of the party declared invalid the more than 1,700 votes from Madeira. PSD and the PSD-Madeira are in collision course due to the number of members registered to vote, as PSD-Madeira has refused to adopt the new membership fee payments rules approved last year.

[Mike88]

Weekend of decisions in PSD and Livre:

This Saturday, almost 41,000 PSD members will vote in the second round of the PSD primaries. The last few days were marked by accusations of influences buying by both sides, and with Montenegro accusing Rio supporters of election fraud. Nonetheless, the media is predicting a Rio win and even Montenegro supporters don't believe in a victory and are now openly asking to Pedro Passos Coelho to return:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1218255012205400065

PSD. Montenegro supporters are already calling for a return of Passos (that is not turned to that).

We'll see what happens tomorrow.

And in Livre, there will be also a decision regarding the position of Joacine Katar Moreira in the party. In the party's congress, to be held this weekend, there is a motion to dump her from the party, and Ms Moreira isn't even registered to be in the party's congress. The outcome is still wide open. Livre could expell her from the party, but she could continue as a MP and Livre loses parliamentary representation. The option of Ms. Moreira resigning is quite unlikely.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1217890681538207744

Politics - Livre's Assembly points to "avoidable" political errors from Joacine Katar Moreira.

[Mike88]

Costa is having a 2nd Christmas honestly

Well, we have seen this film several times: the PS after the 1991 election, the PSD after the 1995 election, the PSD after the 2005 election and the PS during the Costa-Seguro feud, between 2011-2014. Costa continues to ride the wave of a good economic situation, but, even with this, he got just 36% of the votes and polling after the election doesn't point to a honeymoon for Costa. IMO, the welfare crisis continues to hurt Costa and he doesn't seem very keen on proposing strong policies towards the NHS, Education, Infrastructure, etc.

But, you're right that this benefits Costa. If the biggest opposition party continues in internal battle, only the faithfull will only vote for them leaving Costa open to gain swing voters and becoming the domineering figure in current Portuguese politics.

Is a split of PSD Madeira from the national PSD inevitable?

That's basically impossible, and relations between the national PSD and PSD-Madeira have a long history of being sometimes quite tense. Cavaco Silva had feuds with Alberto João Jardim, as did Passos Coelho, and this time the PSD-Madeira has, literally, omelettes in their suits. Their argument is that they are an autonomous part of the PSD and that the national rules don't apply to them, which isn't true as PSD-Azores, the PSD-Madeira sister party, is following national rules. The relation between Rio and Albuquerque also deteriorated quite fast, and by no apparent reason, with the possibility of Albuquerque thinking that Rio was a dead men walking and that ignoring him was the way to go.

[Mike88]

Wait, why are Livre booting Ms. Moreira out?

It's not a final decision, but it's highly likely. It all started with a vote, last November, condemning Israel's treatment of Palestine, proposed by BE. Livre' position was to vote in favour, but Joacine Katar Moreira abstained without communicating her decision to the party leadership. Then, this evolved into an accusation match between both sides, with Ms Moreira accusing Livre of not listening to her and that she was an "Independent", while Livre accused her of being bossy and not responding to their messages and calls. A party meeting tried to calm down the situation, but the tension was still there. Now, her budget vote was the final straw. Livre's official position was abstention, but she said that Livre' position didn't apply to her and that she would make her own mind. She ultimately abstained, but only after she had a meeting with the government, where also she failed to communicate the existence of that meeting to the Livre leadership. Many party members are fed up with her behavior and want her out.

[Mike88]

Big tense moment in the Livre congress when Joacine Katar Moreira spoke:

https://twitter.com/ordemespontanea/status/1218507458139893760

What it is being done here, is unacceptable. These are lies! Lies! Shame! These are utter lies! Coming here to say all these lies in front of the country?

Also during her speech, she announced she has no intentions of resigning from her MP seat and accused Livre of only using her for being black, that stutters and that was usefull to get party subsidies.

[Mike88]

Livre congress: Decision on expelling Joacine Katar Moreira as a MP defeated by just 2 votes (52 to 50)

Joacine Katar Moreira expulsion as an MP was postponed to a later Livre meeting as the vote to decide her future was defeated by just 2 votes, 52 to 50. Her position will, now, be decided in a Livre party assembly with the new elected members of the party leadership, which are being elected in this weekend's party congress.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Polls opened at 14:00 and will close at 20:00h:

Polls for the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election are now open. They opened at 14:00h and will stay open until 20:00h. There are almost 41,000 members registered.

Results will start to be released after polls close in here: https://www.psd.pt/psd-ao-segundo/

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: According to SIC Notícias, turnout seems lower than in the 1st round, a week ago, when 79% of PSD registered members voted. It's unclear who's benefiting from this.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Rui Rio is re-elected.

53.1% Rui Rio (17,009 votes)
46.9% Luís Montenegro (15,018 votes)

79.7% Turnout

[Mike88]

Candidates reactions:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1218682615772913665

Rui Rio, President of the PSD. "There was a time to mark differences, now it is time to mark the unity"

Rui Rio said the party voted for estability and also said he hopes he can work with "stability and loyalty", adding that the party isn't "divided" and it's time to unite the party. He concluded saying that he won the PSD and now it's time to win the country.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1218665501196464128

Montenegro: "May Rui Rio give back unity to the PSD"

Luís Montenegro congratulated Rui Rio and asked Rio to unite the party after these primaries. He said he would go back to became an ordinary party base member but, added that people should not declare him as politically dead.

[Mike88]

Maps of the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election:

[Mike88]

My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.

Well, I believe it's still to early to predict that. CDS is on the verge of disappearing, yes, but the PSD is polling at 26-27% right now, meaning that their October electorate is, for now, not going anywhere. Plus, CHEGA is going throw an interesting moment. Ventura is purging many party members that have connections with far-right movements and has even changed the party's description to become more "moderate". Rio himself, last week, opened the door to future coalition with CHEGA if they have a positive evolution, meaning, becoming more moderate.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1217882290442964998

Ventura investigates mass registrations in Chega. And it promises to take confidence from "extremist, subversive or racist" leaders

I don't know if Rio will last until the 2023 general election, the 2021 midterm local elections will be crucial for him, but I believe the big change could be what happens on the right of the PSD. IL isn't performing that well as all of the attention is on CHEGA and I don't think they will get big surge in the future.

[Mike88]

Maps of the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election:

Rio gained many votes in his strongholds and was able to reduce Montenegro's lead in places like Braga and Coimbra. Montenegro gained many Pinto Luz voters in Lisbon and Setúbal, but it wasn't enough to upset the big margins he lost by in Porto and Aveiro. On the map, Rio gained a lot of cities from Montenegro in the North, while Montenegro swept everything in Lisbon. On the district map, Montenegro won Lisbon and Setúbal from Pinto Luz and gained Portalegre from Rio.

[Mike88]

Livre congress: New elected party leadership board has a majority against Joacine Katar Moreira.

The new Livre leadership board was elected with 95 votes in favour out of 110, but it has a clear majority against Joacine Katar Moreira. 27 members were re-elected and they are clearly anti-Joacine, the 16 new members could still side in favour of Ms. Moreira, but it's not enough. It basically certain that Livre will lose its seat in Parliament and Joacine Katar Moreira will become an Independent... unless she creates her own party, who knows.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: PSD-Madeira congratulates Rui Rio and wants to unite the party.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1218913275171069957

PSD/Madeira congratulates Rio and says they're "available" to defend social democracy

It seems that PSD-Madeira wants truces after their bitter conflict with the national party regarding the membership registration. The PSD regional branch, who boycotted the second round, congratulated Rui Rio, wants to defend "social democracy" and unite and mobilize PSD voters for the 2021 midterm local elections. They also added that they are ready to fight the real adversaries, the PS. The PSD-Madeira finalized the statement saying all issues with the national PSD will be resolved in due process.

[Mike88]

Luanda Leaks hits Portuguese politics with Costa denying any special treatment to Isabel dos Santos:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1220047461378678785

Luanda Leaks. António Costa denies special treatment to Isabel dos Santos - RTP Notícias

The PM was forced to speak about the Luanda Leaks, an international investigation on the fortune of Isabel dos Santos, the daughter of Angola's former leader José Eduardo dos Santos, to deny any special treatment to Isabel dos Santos when she was buying shares in Portuguese banks and companies. Costa was asked by the media to react to BE's accusation that Costa' government, and himself, gave a special treatment to Isabel dos Santos in order to invest and buy shares in Portugal. Costa also said that relations between Portugal and Angola will not be hurt by this.

One thing Costa didn't answer, and he was asked about it, was the possible run for the 2021 Presidential elections of Ana Gomes, the former MEP that has been investigating Isabel dos Santos fortune for a long time, and other corruption scandals like the one involving hacker Rui Pinto and Benfica:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1220030645960876034

Ana Gomes. Does the fight against corruption make a presidential candidate? The hashtag # anagomes2021 gained new impetus with the release of Luanda Leaks documents. [Read more: http://bit.ly/38t9sn7]

Some PS members are pushing her to run and, on social media, she is gaining a lot of support. However, she herself has ruled out a possible run, but who knows at this point.

[Mike88]

Final results of the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election were published:

53.2% Rui Rio (17,157 votes)
46.8% Luís Montenegro (15,086 votes)

  1.0% Blank/Invalid (339 votes)

80.2% Turnout

[Mike88]

CDS leadership congress: Delegates meet this weekend to elect a new leader with fears the party could be on the verge of extinction.

CDS delegates will elect a new leader, this weekend, during the party's congress in Aveiro city. 5 candidates are in the race, with the 3 main contenders being João Almeida, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos and Filipe Lobo d'Ávila. However wins faces a daunting task of reviving the CDS, at a moment the party is polling at around 3% and behind CHEGA. Some pundits argue that CDS faces the real danger of becoming irrelevant and many CDS members, like former leader José Ribeiro e Castro, accuses Cristas of destroying the CDS by trying to transform CDS into a "new PSD", meaning, becoming a more moderate and catch-all party.

The new leader will be elected during Saturday evening, but the vote could last into the early hours of Sunday.

[Mike88]

CDS leadership congress starts: Assunção Cristas exits the leadership by saying "I've failed".

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1221039926025818114

Assunção Cristas, the still CDS leader, made her final speech, today, at the start of the CDS congress in Aveiro. She admitted her strategy failed and the voters perceived CDS as the party of "no, no, no" as they were alone in opposing the PS and that hurt them. She also said that her strategy was voted overwhelmingly in past congresses and that the she's not alone in the blame. After her speech, she left the congress and it's not expected that she will return during the weekend.

The new leader will be elected, possibly, tonight. There will first be a vote on candidate motions and after that result there will be another vote, this one to elect the leader. Coalition against candidates could be possible.