🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

PS regional primaries held this weekend. More left wing of the party defeated as candidates closer to Costa win across the country:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1285151854641344518

"Costism" overturns Pedro Nuno Santos' intention to gain weight in the PS federal elections

The Socialist Party (PS) held regional party election during last weekend. Around 50,000 PS members were registered to vote and 56.3% cast a ballot. All 19 party regional structures were up for election. Pedro Nuno Santos, minister of Infrastructures and possible future contender in the PS leadership more aligned with the left wing of the party, supported several candidates that were defeated by more moderate candidates, like in Viseu and Coimbra where candidates close to Pedro Nuno Santos polled at 47% and 38% respectably. Nonetheless, some PS members close to Pedro Nuno Santos were reelected in Lisbon, Braga and Aveiro but were single list elections and had support from both wings.

António Costa, PM and PS leader, thanked every one who ran in the elections adding that they contributed for reaffirming the wealth of pluralism and diversity of opinions whitin the PS. However, and although the left wing of the PS didn't make gains this time, some media outlets are considering these party elections another step in Pedro Nuno Santos strategy for the future. No one is challenging Costa right now, or in the very near future, but many of the candidates elected during the weekend will probably be candidates for the 2021 local elections which could be crucial for the future of the PS in power for the next few years.

[Mike88]

PS and PSD approve new Parliamentary rules: PM only has to go to Parliament every 2 months.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1285509718828560390

Parliament: PS and PSD want Prime Minister to only go to Parliament every two months

The two main parties, PS and PSD which control 81% of Parliament, passed, today, new Parliamentary rules that end the biweekly PM Q&A debates and only demands the PM to be part in Q&A debates every 2 months as the Q&A debates are monthly but the PM and cabinet members can alternate their presence. The PS proposal, negotiated with the PSD, was the one that passed. Smaller parties, BE, CDU, CDS, PAN, CHEGA and IL, all criticized the new rules accusing the 2 main parties of having no "shame", that this is a big scandal and that Parliament is being downgraded by PS and PSD.

[Mike88]

2021 elections: Mayor of Castelo Branco forced out of office by the Courts.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1285557161926422529

Mayor of Castelo Branco loses mandate

The mayor of Castelo Branco, Luís Correia (PS), has lost his mandate by order of the Constitutional Court. Mr Correia is involved in a corruption investigation where he's accused of signing several contracts with his father's company with no competition. The mayor has accepted the Court' decision but says it's an unjust one and that he's being attacked by a "smear and demagogic campaign". He added that in his 7 years as mayor he worked always for the people of Castelo Branco and that he did everything in a clear conscience. Mr Correia was in his 2nd term and was eligible for a 3rd run in 2021.

The deputy mayor will now succeed him and run the city until the 2021 elections. However, the local PS is very divided with internal infighting between the more "younger" wing of the party, in which Mr Correia was part of, and the old guard of the party who want to take back power. Some even suggest talking with the PSD in order to defeat a PS led by Mr. Correia' wing. Nonetheless, this tactic isn't very well seen in the PSD.

Castelo Branco is a PS stronghold, as the PS only polled 2nd once in the last 27 years. Therefore, the PS will likely hold this city in 2021, even with party infighting. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll on the 2021 Presidential election:

Vote share %:

70.8% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+8.2)
  9.7% Ana Gomes (-1.1)
  5.0% André Ventura (-4.8 )
  4.0% Marisa Matias (-1.4)
  2.6% Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.7)
  3.9% Others
  4.0% None/Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 July 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

Azores 2020 elections: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is receiving parties, today, to call a date for the regional elections:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1285937199083659266

Elections: PPM-Azores suggests that regional elections take place on 25 October

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is meeting with the regional parties represented in the Azores Parliament, PS, PSD, CDS, CDU, BE and PPM, in order to call a date for the regional elections in the islands. PPM-Azores, the first party to be received by the President, suggested 25 October as election day. During the rest of the day, the rest of the parties will suggest a data. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa could announce a date during today or in the next few days.

[Mike88]

Many PS and PSD MPs are angry with the proposal of ending the biweekly PM Q&A debates and will vote against:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1286211954441412608

Divisions in the "Central Bloc" over the Prime Minister's presence in the AR every two months

The ending of the biweekly PM Q&A debates and changing it to a format where the PM is only forced to go to Parliament every 2 months, is revolting many PS and PSD MPs who are planning to vote against the proposal, colading with the intentions of Rui Rio and António Costa. Jorge Lacão, PS MP, says that almost half of the PS caucus will vote against. In the PSD the number could be even higher. If half of both the PS and PSD caucuses vote against the proposal, the ending of the biweekly debates would fail by 137 votes. The vote is schedule for this afternoon.

Media and pundits are also criticizing heavily Rio and Costa for supporting this. Público newspaper editoral even says that Costa and Rio share a "Salazarist DNA", like many Portuguese, by downgrading Parliamentary debates.

[Mike88]

End of biweekly PM Q&A debates approved: 21 PS MPs and 5 PSD MPs voted against, alongside the smaller parties:

The controversial end of the PM biweekly Q&A debates passed in Parliament with 161 votes in favour and 69 against. In the PS caucus, 21 MPs voted against while in the PSD it was fewer with 5 MPs voting against. Smaller parties continued to criticized the meassure accusing PS and PSD of creating a big stain in their history and CHEGA is considering sending this new meassure to the Constitutional Court as it "violates the strongest tradition of parliamentarism", said Ventura.

PS and PSD defended the new rule saying that the oversight of the government isn't in question, but the responses, from both caucus, for their spokespersons were very shy with few MPs clapping.

[Mike88]

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

39% PS
26% PSD
  7% BE
  7% CHEGA
  6% CDU
  3% CDS
  3% IL
  3% PAN
  6% Others/Invalid

President of the Republic job approval:

87% Good/Very good
10% Bad/Very bad
  3% Undecided

Government's job approval:

73% Good/Very good
21% Bad/Very bad
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 13 and 18 July 2020. Polled 1,482 voters. MoE of 2.5%

[Mike88]

State of the Nation debate: PS and PSD attack each other as Costa asks the left for a long term agreement.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1286656710527070208

State of the Nation. Costa between a Rio in combat mode and a left standing behind - RTP News

The mood between PS and PSD was quite tense in the State of the Nation debate this morning in Parliament. PSD leader, Rui Rio, attacked the government's hydrogen energy plan accusing the government of creating a new monopoly to serve special interests and that the costs for the taxpayers will be very big. PM António Costa accused the PSD of being a "fossilized" party that lives in the past and said that the hydrogen energy plan is very important for the country. Rio also accused the government of managing badly the public debt. The Novo Banco case was once again used as a weapon between PS and PSD to attack each other.

Nonetheless, in this debate, Costa challenged the left parties, BE and CDU, to form a new agreement. However the message was received with skepticism by the leftwing. CDU accused the government of pursuing policies in the wrong direction and that will not solve anything. BE said that the 2021 budget needs to answer the worries of unemployment, the NHS problems and investment in social services. The PS responded that they are willing to talk with BE but they seem to disagree on the way to solve the crisis.

The 2019-2020 parliamentary session now ended. The 2nd session of the 14th Parliament will start in mid September.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: IL nominates Tiago Mayan Gonçalves as candidate for the presidency:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1286981965841915905

Presidency of the Republic: Liberal Initiative already has a candidate for Belém: his name is Tiago Mayan Gonçalves and he says he is "uncompromised"

The Liberal Initiative, IL, has chosen Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, a 43 year old lawyer from Porto city, as the party's candidate for the January 2021 Presidential election. Mr Gonçalves becomes the 2nd official candidate to announce his candidate, the other being André Ventura, CHEGA leader. PCP will announce their candidate in the next couple of weeks, BE will likely also present a candidate and Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is expected to officially announce his reelection candidacy in November. Ana Gomes is still considering running.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV about racism in Portugal:

Q1: Is there racism in Portugal?

68.1% Yes
29.4% No
  2.6% Undecided

Q2: Do you, or someone you know, have been victim of racism in Portugal?

82.0% No
18.0% Yes

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 July 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: PDR leader, Bruno Fialho, also presents his candidacy to the Presidency.

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1287678006551613440

Bruno Fialho, PDR leader, announces candidacy "on the center" for Belém

The Democratic Republican Party (PDR) leader, Bruno Fialho, has announced his candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic. Mr Fialho, a lawyer and businessman, was elected PDR leader in January 2020. He accuses Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa of being too close to the government and that, from the President, the people expect decision that help them and that the current President actions were not very positive.

Mr Fialho is the 3th candidate to officially announce a candidacy for the 2021 January Presidential election.

[Mike88]

Rui Rio RTP interview: PSD leader open to talks with CHEGA if the party moderates its tone and said that he would consider let TAP airlines close.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1288572505679106054

Great RTP Interview. Rui Rio admitted the closure of TAP

In an interview on RTP, yesterday, PSD leader Rui Rio said he would consider talking with CHEGA if the party moderates its tone, but added that if the party continues its current strategy, talks between PSD and CHEGA are almost impossible. Rio also criticized the government's handling of the TAP airline crisis and the hydrogen controversy, saying, regarding TAP, that the government gave money to the company with no plan and that more money will likely be asked again. He added that if he was PM he would consider closing TAP airlines if the plan presented by the company wasn't feasible. Regarding the hydrogen controversy, Rio accused, once again, the government of creating a special scheme to invest in hydrogen that will hurt taxpayers. Rio also talked about the ongoing scandal of the Novo Banco real estate sales, in which the bank sold real estates below the price of the market via the Cayman Islands and lost money forcing them to ask for more money from the government. Rio accused the Novo Banco board of criminal actions. He also tried to explain the controversy of the end of biweekly debates with the PM saying that these kind of the debates were unhelpful.

CHEGA has already responded to Rio's statement saying that they will only consider talking with the PSD when the Social Democrats end being "the maid of honor" of the PS. They also refuse to be a CDS 2.0 for the PSD.

[Mike88]

I don't see CHEGA moderating. What incentive do they have? As an outsider party, it's often easier to sit around and attack others rather than actually govern.

In the near future, 1/2 years, of course not. But, who knows in 3/4 years. CHEGA is still mainly a "single person" party but many of the people close to Ventura, and people who would likely be elected if polling is correct, are former PSD members. In a future PSD victory, like I believe I said in posts a few weeks/months ago, many CHEGA members, former PSD members, could be tempted to talk with the PSD, while the hard line of the party, which never had anything to do with the PSD in the past, could refuse. Power or the prospects of power could change everything.

But, to that to even be considered the PSD needs to break away from the average 26-27% they are stuck in for months now. A stronger PSD in the polls would also change the dynamics of possible talks on the right, as CHEGA, currently, is growing very fast and has the upper hand, while the same cannot be said for the PSD.

[Mike88]

Political update:

Health authorities admit changes to the PCP's organization of the Avante Festival, in early September:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1291034430581112832

DGS admits adjustments to the recommendations for the “Avante!” Party

The PCP annual festival, in early September, is back in the news. With just weeks before the festival, the party says it can receive the 100,000 people that annually go to the festival safely and with social distance. The festival's grounds have been expanded more than 10,000 square meters. However, the General Health Department has said that adjustments to the festival organization will probably be made but they say that meetings with the party will be be held and final decisions will be made in the next few days.

The Constitutional Court has said that Azores violated the Constitution by forcing quarantines of 14 days for infected people arriving in the island. Azores, and also Madeira, want a change in the Constitution to give more powers to the regions:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1291022397781377027

In reaction to the decision of the Constitutional Court, which considered mandatory confinement unconstitutional, the President of the Regional Government of the Azores says that "the legal framework needs to be improved".

The Constitutional Court has ruled as unconstitutional the Azores regional government decision to force quarantine for people arriving in the islands. The President of the Azores government, Vasco Cordeiro, said the decision in "absurd" and a blatant example of "centralism" in Portugal, demanding, then, changes in the Constitution to give more powers to regions. Madeira regional government also supports changes.

[Mike88]

PSD-CHEGA future talks?: PSD seems split as Rui Rio considers the possibility of future talks with CHEGA if the party moderates its tone.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1291160444154118145

Will CHEGA be close to the PSD or is a "sanitary cord" needed?

Many PSD members have been criticizing and agreeing with Rio's statement, 2 weeks ago, that PSD could talk with CHEGA in the future if the party moderates its tone. PSD members, like Cascais mayor Carlos Carreiras, and others, accuse Rio of being desperate and of having no strategy. However, Rio seems to have gained an ally with Miguel Albuquerque, President of the Madeira government, as he said the PSD should talk with CHEGA and with no preconditions, while Rio defended conditions, as it is imperative to defeat the left in Portugal, adding that no moderation is needed as the PS talked with BE and CDU, with Mr. Albuquerque saying the latter even supports North Korea. Others, on the contrary, say that the issue is untimely and that the focus should be on opposing António Costa' government.

https://twitter.com/etcetaljorna/status/1291485364717342721

Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos: "Probability of understandings of CDS with Chega is null"

CDS is also in trouble surrounding possible talks with CHEGA. The party, which is polling at record levels, is also divided about CHEGA. Current leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, said, in an interview, that the possibility of CDS talking with CHEGA is "null" as he accuses André Ventura of being the candidate of "coffee house extremisms". After this interview, a CDS member, that led a conservative movement within the party, announced he was leaving CDS and going to CHEGA. Former CDS caucus leader under Assunção Cristas, Nuno Magalhães, diverged from the party leader saying the CDS should not close the door for possible agreements with CHEGA and that the leader should hear what the party bases believe.

[Mike88]

Azores elections 2020: PSD approves lists with high "consensus", but there were tensions in one party section because of the lists.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1292249542289653763

PSD approves lists of candidates by "huge consensus" - Jornal Açores 9

The PSD-Azores approved, last Saturday, the lists of candidates for the October regional elections. PSD leader, José Manuel Bolieiro, was nominated as candidate for President of the Government and will lead the list in São Miguel island, the biggest electoral district in Azores. According to the party, 79% of the names in the lists are new, meaning that of the names chosen in 2016 only 21% will remain, and that 44% of the candidates in the lists are women.

However, the "huge consensus" was overshadowed by tensions between the regional PSD and a local party branch in Vila Franca do Campo. The local party was quite upset the regional leadership didn't accept their chosen candidate to represent the town and decided to resign and not to campaign in the October election.

The date of the election is still to be announced. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa could announce a date as late as next week because the publication of the changes of the Azores electoral law will only be published this week. The most likely dates are 18 or 25 October.

[Mike88]

The 18 deaths in a nursing home in Reguengos de Monsaraz, Évora, are becoming a political issue as parties accuse of negligence the Health authorities and the government:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1293305052157935616

18 deaths in Reguengos' nursing home: "a humanitarian crime”, "cannot be repeated", "where is the minister?" and a fundamental interview

The report of of the Medical Bar Association on the conditions of a nursing home in Reguengos de Monsaraz, Évora district, was sent to the DA office to further investigation. The report states that the conditions in the nursing home were very bad and that the majority of deaths cannot be attributed to Covid-19 but rather dehydration and other serious illnesses. An outbreak of Covid-19 broke, here, in mid July and in the nursing home 106 people were infected, then which spread to the community with 56 others infected.

The doctor heading the report said the nursing home didn't follow any guidelines from the DGS, Health authorities, but that the DGS can be also accused as responsible as it failed to manage the situation. Political parties are already accusing the government of hidding and not giving answers. CDS says this is "a humanitarian crime" and that the State seems to be more worried with dogs than the elderly. The PSD says the government has disappeared especially the minister of Social Security and wants answers from the government. If no answers are given, the party will consider asking for an extraordinary session of Parliament, during the holidays, to force the government to give answers. PCP also is demanding answers and wants, if the accusations are proved, that the nursing home and the mayor of the city, led by the PS, be labeled as responsible for this situation.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa slaps PS and PSD by vetoing several new parliamentary rules like fewer debates about Europe and the increase of signatures needed to petitions to be discussed:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1293653485091794947

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says it is negative for democracy that the minimum number of signatures necessary to bring a petition to Parliament's plenary has been increased to ten thousand.

The President of the Republic has vetoed at least two major bills, regarding new parliamentary rules, that were approved by PS and PSD. The reduction of debates, with the PM, about Europe was vetoed, as was the increase of the number of signatures needed for a petition to be discussed in Parliament, from 4,000 to 10,000. The President hammered these new rules saying they're bad for democracy and give space for populist movements. The President also hinted that he would also veto the reduction of PM Q&A, but in that matter he has no word. The new rules were sent back to Parliament for reconsideration.

Smaller parties applauded the President' decision while PS and PSD haven't made an official comment. If the main parties don't change the rules, the President can only use the power of veto 2 more times and if no changes occur, the new rules become permanent. However, it's somewhat expected that PS and PSD will make changes in the new rules.

[Mike88]

Police investigates death threats to 3 MPs and their families:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1293805081964548100

PJ investigates threats to left-wing deputies and SOS Racism - RTP Notícias

The police is investigating death threats that 3 MPs, BE MPs Mariana Mortágua and Beatriz Dias, and Ind MP Joacine Katar Moreira, received via email. In that email, also sent to SOS Racism association, a deadline of 48 hours is given to members of the association and the 3 MPs, and their families, to leave Portugal and that if they fail the deadline, other measures will be done to "ensure the security of the Portuguese people".

The Speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues, has already condemn these actions saying these threats come from a "far-right group" and that "racist, hate-promoting and attempted intimidation acts" must be condemn.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa slaps PS and PSD by vetoing several new parliamentary rules like fewer debates about Europe and the increase of signatures needed to petitions to be discussed.

Smaller parties applauded the President' decision while PS and PSD haven't made an official comment. If the main parties don't change the rules, the President can only use the power of veto 2 more times and if no changes occur, the new rules become permanent. However, it's somewhat expected that PS and PSD will make changes in the new rules.

Thank God for the President. Without his veto, I have no doubt that the big two parties would continually try to get rid of norms and procedures unfavourable to them, practically the only time they ever get together to do something now. Goes to show the importance of checks and balances in a healthy, functioning democracy.

The reduction of PM Q&A debates and other rule changes fit perfectly with Rio' and Costa's political personalities. Both aren't good orators, are very controlling and both don't like parliamentary routine. Both, in the past, criticized the weekly PM Q&A debates and proposed changes to it. And in their minds, these changes are good for both: Costa, who isn't very impressive in debating, wouldn't have to go to Parliament and would do what he does best, controlling the political situation by decisions not subject by Parliament; and Rio the same, adding that he's even more controlling than Costa, plus he would remove air time for parties like IL and CDS, especially IL, who constantly says Rio is, more often than not, a puppet of the PS. Now, the problem of all of this is the image it gives, which is not very good, though I doubt the majority of the electorate gives the importance the media gives it.

According to the media, PS and PSD don't know what to do with the vetoes, if they change the rules or sent it back with no changes:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1294140741057273856

Parliament: PSD and PS still do not know if they insist on changing the petitions law

If they don't change a thing, Marcelo's hands are tied and he has to pass the rules as presidential vetoes have a limit.

[Mike88]

Reguengos de Monsaraz nursing controversy: Social Security minister says she hasn't read the report yet, drawing criticisms from the opposition and a "jibe" by Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1294563490238066688

Outbreak size in nursing homes "is not too big", says Minister of Social Security

The Social Security minister, Ana Mendes Godinho, is in a middle of a controversy about the Reguengos de Monsaraz nursing home report. In a trainwreck interview to Expresso newspaper, the minister said she didn't read the report yet but had asked her team to analyze it and give a feedback. She added that outbreaks in nursing homes aren't that serious and that her job doesn't require to ascertain responsibilities for outbreaks in nursing homes. The interview is creating controversy with PSD, CDS and CHEGA accusing the minister of incompetence and no sense of humanity. PSD has already asked the minister to go to an emergency hearing in Parliament, while CDS and CHEGA are asking for her resignation.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa also commented, saying he has read all of the reports about the nursing home in Monsaraz, in what seemed to be a jibe to the minister. He further added that authorities have a lot of material to investigate and demand responsibilities.

The ministry of Social Security has already accused Expresso newspaper of "decontextualizing in a serious way" the minister's words and that she didn't downplayed the outbreaks. Expresso newspaper immediately sent a memo saying the minister is lying and published the full audio of the interview.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %:

39.6% PS (+0.6)
24.8% PSD (+0.9)
  8.5% BE (-1.9)
  7.9% CHEGA (+1.7)
  6.1% CDU (-0.1)
  4.4% CDS (-0.4)  
  3.2% PAN (+0.2)
  2.8% IL (nc)
  0.0% Livre (-0.4)
  0.4% Others (+0.2)
  2.2% Invalid/Blank (-0.7)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.4 António Costa (nc)
3.1 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.8 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
2.6 André Silva (nc)
2.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.5 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.2 André Ventura (nc)
1.8 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 August 2020. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: Electoral commission says voting will be safe in Azores.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1295372439715753985

Elections in the Azores: CNE says that voting will be safe and that the pandemic cannot justify abstention

The Electoral Commission met today with the government of Azores to ensure that the voting process will be safe during the October elections. The Commission says that people should bring their own pens in order to vote, use masks, election workers will be wearing masks and visors and that IDs will be disinfected as well disinfectant alcohol will be provided to voters. The Commission also adds that the pandemic cannot be a reason to abstain in the elections, as all security measures will be in place. Azores has had 194 confirmed cases since March, with 23 currently active, and 16 deaths.

Abstention in Azores is always very big. In the 2016 elections, just 41% cast a ballot, and in the 2019 general election just 36.5% went to the polls. Plus, the election outcome is basically a forgone conclusion, so turnout will most likely be one of the lowest ever.

[Mike88]

Is the PPM running to retain the seat for Corvo?

I assume that yes. The PPM MP suffered an accident in late July and was rushed to Hospital in São Miguel island, but he seems to be recovering and will most likely run for reelection.