🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Crisis in PAN continues: PAN branch in Madeira is dissolved as all members leave the party.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1275762115664474113

PAN Madeira dissolves with criticism of the national leadership

The leadership of PAN-Madeira has left the party and has basically dissolved the party in the islands as other party members in the region are also leaving the party. The now former members of PAN are criticizing heavily the national leadership, by André Silva, labeling the leadership as intolerant with different ideas, heavily concentrated in just a few people and that, in the case of Madeira, constantly persues policies against the interests of Madeira.

PAN national leadership has already responded by attacking their former members of trying to hide their "huge political incompetence" as the results of the 2019 elections in Madeira were proof.

But, the feud between André Silva and PAN' former MEP, Francisco Guerreiro, continues to make headlines in the press.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1275538071459676160

The discussion between André Silva and Francisco Guerreiro that precipitated his exit and revealed cases of false green receipts in the PAN

According to Observador newspaper, PAN leader, André Silva, and Francisco Guerreiro had an ugly exchange of words in a party meeting, in late May 2020, in which several bad practices in PAN were disclosed. Several party aides on Parliament were being paid by Lisbon city hall in the form of green receipts, independent workers who collaborate with a company without a work contract, but these aides never set foot in Lisbon city hall. The problem is that PAN is against these kind of practices but it seems they are used inside the party. According to newspaper, party members in the meeting were shocked by the revelations.

[Mike88]

More crisis in PAN: Party loses an MP and its caucus is reduced to 3 MPs

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1276083351120605184

Another resignation in PAN. MP Cristina Rodrigues leaves the party

MP Cristina Rodrigues, elected from Setúbal district, has left PAN and will become an independent MP alongside Joacine Katar Moreira. This is another blow to PAN as the party is facing a wave of resignations and departures from the party due to the leadership of Andre Silva. Ms Rodrigues accuses the party leadership of silencing her and of blocking her work in Parliament. She also adds that the party' rhetoric has become very radical and too aggressive.

Is PAN becoming a Livre 2.0? We'll see.

[Mike88]

CHEGA will hold a "Portugal isn't racist" rally next Saturday, even though the Covid-19 virus is surging in Lisbon.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1275829312726466560

CHEGA maintains Saturday demonstration and expects 1,500 participants.

CHEGA party is expected to hold a rally in Lisbon, next Saturday, called "Portugal isn't racist". Even though the Covid-19 virus is surging in the Lisbon area, the party has announced it will hold the rally and expects around 1,500 people to show up. The party has already sent letters to Lisbon city hall and to the Interior minister announcing the rally and that all safety precautions will be met. The party has also met with the police to make the arrangements. But, CHEGA leader André Ventura had to distance himself from the intentions of several far-right groups that wanted to join the rally. Ventura had to say that CHEGA is against any violent movement that doesn't respect democracy.

[Mike88]

António Costa nominates Mário Centeno as governor of the Bank of Portugal:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1276235526056673283

Government puts Centeno ahead of the Bank of Portugal

PM António Costa informed Parliament, today, that he will nominate the former finance minister Mário Centeno as the next governor of the bank of Portugal. This nomination was expected, but a bill proposed by PAN could had blocked Centeno but the PS asked for a feedback from the ECB and that delayed the bill for more than a month, paving the way for Centeno nomination. PSD has also said it is totally against the nomination but it can't and won't stop it. All other parties are also against Centeno' nomination, only the PS says yes.

A recent poll, by Intercampus for CMTV/CM newspaper, showed that the electorate is divided on Centeno' nomination as governor of the Bank of Portugal:

Q: Do you think Mário Centeno should be Governor of the Bank of Portugal?

51.8% Yes
48.2% No

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 June 2020. Polled 610 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

So there is no "cordon sanitaire" around CHEGA as there is with many similar European FR parties?

I mean, it is not that hard to imagine an scenario where CHEGA props up a PSD minority government?

Granted Deputy PM Andre Ventura is a lot harder to imagine, but a minority government propped up by CHEGA is a lot more likely.

If PSD+CHEGA get a majority (but not PSD+CDS and IL), I am sure PSD would probably get into government. It would not be perfect but it would be stable enough.

The question would be whether some moderate conservatives do defect for PS in that case (and of course whether PS moderates to try and coopt PSD from the center)

There is a informal "cordon sanitaire" around CHEGA. No party aligns with them and all want distance. However, the relation between PSD and CHEGA is, right now, almost nonexistent. If in the beginning, a few months ago, PSD and CHEGA held some meetings to see what common ground there was between them, since then communications between both parties ceased. If fact, PSD has adopted a strategy of ignoring everything CHEGA does and says, for example, everytime Ventura says something controversial there is a huge backlash from the media, the left and some on the right, but PSD and Rio basically don't comment and ignore it. It's like the PSD is saying "he's always in the headlines because you keep talking about him".

Now, is there common ground between PSD and CHEGA if in the future, or in the next elections, they are forced to talk? Maybe, but it would be uncomfortable with the current data. CHEGA would not be part of a government as they are not prepared yet, although many of the people advising Ventura are people that left the PSD and some from the PS. PSD and CHEGA would probably reach agreements in the economic/fiscal front as both defend liberal conservatism, but the big "wall" would be social issues as the PSD is very liberal and Rio is in favour of abortion, gay marriage/adoption, euthanasia, legalization of prostitution, etc, and CHEGA is against all of this. Plus, personal relations are important here, as Rio doesn't like Ventura one bit.

However, we don't know how will CHEGA evolve. Ventura has a problem, right now, with far-right groups that are infiltrating CHEGA and although they are very small, they can make big damages in the party, and Ventura, could, in the future need to moderate his tone to turn CHEGA into a government party. The CDS had this evolution in the 90's, where after the 1991 PSD landslide, they turn to the right and became anti-Europe, very hostile towards minorities, etc and basically terminated their relation with the PSD. Some historic CDS members even left the party for the PSD. But, in the late 90's the party was deeply divided on their political standing and the more moderate wing, led by Paulo Portas, won and started to change the image of the party and became, once again, closer to the PSD. CHEGA could find it self divided in the future between those who want to persue a more moderate stand to be closer to power and those who want to continue a more aggressive tone. By then, they would have to make a decision.

Curiously, in the last few days, a political investigator in a Lisbon University, Riccardo Marchi, published a book about CHEGA and its foundation and organization:

https://twitter.com/JooSilvaCar5/status/1276256066733572097

"Chega is a party with a face but no spine"

In the book he says that CHEGA is still to associated with the image of André Ventura and doesn't have a "spine" or structure even though it has around 10,000 members. It's still a young party that is still, you can say, having their teeth born. He also talks about the feuds on the far-right and their infiltration in CHEGA, like I talked above. An interesting interview to understand what could be the future of the Portuguese right.

[Mike88]

More than 1,000 people attended CHEGA' "Portugal isn't racist" march and rally in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1276904918104891393

Hundreds of people parade in Lisbon at the Chega demonstration.

More than 1,000 people attended the "Portugal isn't racist" march and rally in Lisbon, organized by CHEGA. André Ventura led the march that started in the Marquis of Pombal square and ended in the Commerce Square in downtown Lisbon. In his speech, Ventura proclaimed himself as the heir of Francisco Sá Carneiro, former PM and PSD leader, as he is the only one, according to him, that is fighting for the country against the left. He also criticized Rio and CDS leader Francisco Rodrigo dos Santos for not attending the rally, saying that this is time to fight for the country, that according to him, is being humiliated and bent by the left.

[Mike88]

Health minister in danger? PM Costa called her a liar during the meeting between scientists and politicians last week:

https://twitter.com/Visao_pt/status/1276168041638899714

Covid-19: Costa gets angry with Marta Temido and forced Marcelo to end meeting at Infarmed

It was a tense meeting the one held last week between politicians and scientists at Infarmed in Lisbon. The media is reporting that PM António Costa was quite upset during the whole meeting as specialists and scientists debunked every single theory about the surge of cases in the Lisbon area. Costa blamed the big amount of tests conducted and young people for the surge, but scientists said that doesn't explain nothing. But, Costa exploded when his Health minister, Marta Temido, was speaking and saying that the Portuguese people were put into lockdown to stop the virus. According to the press, Costa interrupted his minister, said what she was saying was a lie and that the country didn't went into full lockdown. Costa, visibly upset and angry according to sources, continued to lash out saying that if cases continue to grow it will not be his fault as no one is giving answers. Costa then abruptly ended the meeting at the dismay of the President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

On the next day, reporters asked the health minister about the tense meeting, and Ms Temido said if the PM criticized her then he was right. Media outlets were quite stunned by this response and some are considering if Marta Temido could be in her way out of government very soon.

[Mike88]

TAP airlines: Negotiations between the government and private owners near collapse. Nationalization is on the table.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1277900281771184129

TAP: Privates reject the State's proposal for TAP

Negotiations are still ongoing but the private share owners of TAP, around 45%, seem to be rejecting the State's proposal in order to inject 1,2 billion euros to bailout the airline. However, there seems to be contradictory signs on what's happening as different media outlets are reporting the story differently. Expresso newspaper is reporting that negotiations have completely failed and that the nationalization of the airline will happen, while others like Público and Observador say that the nationalization is a public threat of the government to force the private owners to reach an agreement. We'll see how this plays out.

[Mike88]

If PSD win the next election (and there's no left-wing majority) I don't think they even need to talk to Chega to form a government. Ventura won't get in the way of bringing down the Socialist government.

As for CDS, I think it would make more sense for them to form a joint list with IL as the parties to the right of PSD and to the left of Chega, but I don't see it happening either as they're on opposite sides of certain culture wars such as euthanasia and cannabis.

Yes, CHEGA wouldn't stop a PSD government, but, like I said, it's still unclear if CHEGA will persue a "moderation" of their tone, although Ventura is holding on to the radical tone. A continuing radical tone from CHEGA, in a advent of a PSD government, wouldn't necessarily bring it down, but would create a lot of headaches to Rio, if he becomes PM.

About CDS, it's a party split down the middle. The current leader isn't unifying the party and the more moderate wing constantly criticizes him. If there's a change of leadership in the near future, like Adolfo Mesquita Nunes taking over CDS' leadership, CDS could become closer with IL and form some kind of alliance. The PSD would probably see with very good eyes this alliance, as it would give them an alternative rather than talking to CHEGA.

[Mike88]

PS and PSD agree to scrap biweekly PM Q&A debates and change it to monthly Q&A debates:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1278348260650954752

Parliament: PS agrees to pass monthly debates with the Prime Minister.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, presented a series of rules changes for Parliamentary procedures and one of them is to scrap the current biweekly PM Q&A debates and change it monthly one, as it was done prior to 2007. The PSD also proposes that Parliamentary committees should have non MPs in them, and that MPs should not evaluate incompatibilities and an Independent committee with non MPs should be created. The PS has accepted the proposal to reduced the PM Q&A debates from biweekly to monthly but is rejecting the other PSD proposals.

The changes could be implemented in the 2nd Parliament session after August 2020.

[Mike88]

TAP airlines nationalization aborted. Government and private owners seem to have reach an agreement at the last minute.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1278652138151833601

TAP. Check-in for nationalization? Flight canceled

TAP airlines will not be nationalized as it was feared a few hours ago. The option Costa's government most disliked, nationalization, was avoided in the early hours of the morning as the government and the private owners reached an agreement. The details are still being drafted, but the State will buy the 22.5% David Neelman has in TAP and will have a total of 72.5% of the company. The other 27.5% are distributed by workers, 5%, and Barraqueiro Transports, 22.5%.

[Mike88]

PSD decisive in negotiating the emergency budget with the PS, makes PCP to vote against. BE will abstain but is also unhappy with the PS.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1278790680891047937

How Rui Rio hurt the "Geringonça" with a summer Central Block

The PSD negotiated several policies with the PS during the budget debate yesterday, which surprised PCP and BE. Policies like support for managing partners, expansion of unemployment support, health workers support and childcare payments were expected to create several "negative coalitions" against the PS government, but the PSD leader, Rui Rio, decided to negotiate several of their proposals with the PS and win the support of the Socialists. Others parties were quite surprised by this "Central Bloc" and are criticizing the PSD for aligning with the PS. Nonetheless, the PSD was successful in passing many of their proposals, with some changes, with the help of the PS.

But, parties on the left aren't happy. PCP will vote against the budget, the first time in 5 years in which the Communists will not support a PS budget, as they say the convergence of PS and PSD demands an alternative. BE also criticizes this convergence between the 2 main parties. On the right, the Liberals, IL, are saying that the PSD has given up opposing the government and the PS.

The final vote of the 2020 emergency budget or supplementary budget, will be tomorrow and will only pass with the votes of the PS. PSD, BE and PAN will abstain, while PCP, PEV, CDS, CHEGA and IL will likely vote against.

[Mike88]

In general, centre alliances are not a good idea and a recipe for polarization to more extreme parties, but I'm curious whether or not that will play out here as I don't know Portuguese politics well

PS and PSD agreements are very common. In fact, before 2015, the exception was the PS finding support on the left. But now, it seems we have gone back to the pre-2015 situation. PS and PSD have some common ground on, for example, labour laws, regulations, and others and some parts of both parties constantly press that Portugal needs strong reforms that can only happen with strong PS and PSD agreements. Formal coalitions are not on the table as both parties compete directly and don't accept that.

The electorate seem to not punish this kind of agreements, on the contrary. The "common ground" affect has in the past benefited either the PS or the PSD. It's not something that the general electorate hates, the same cannot, probably, be said for both party bases that normally don't any talk with the other side, but this doesn't seem to affect the parties in polling. But, of course, this could change, especially with the current existence of IL and CHEGA on the right, but, for now, there's no proof of any change.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for SOL newspaper, Porto Canal and other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

38.4% PS (+0.4)
29.3% PSD (nc)
  8.4% BE (+0.4)
  6.0% CDU (+0.7)
  4.4% CHEGA (+0.3)
  2.8% PAN (-0.2)
  2.2% CDS (-0.5)  
  1.1% IL (nc)
  7.4% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 29 June and 2 July 2020. Polled 1,025 voters. MoE of 3.06%.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: Main parties, PS and PSD, start to consider some candidates:

The 2021 local elections are 1 year and 3 months away and, in a normal time, many candidate would already be announced, but the Covid-19 pandemic changed all plans and official candidates are only expected to be announced during or after January 2021. Nonetheless, parties, especially the 2 main parties, are starting to consider candidates and strategies.

In Lisbon, PS mayor Fernando Medina is expected to run for another term and the PSD is considering running MP Ricardo Baptista Leite. He has become a very known person as he is a doctor and is normally on TV. He even appeared sometimes on UK's ITV Good Morning Britain. If it will be a PSD or PSD/CDS candidacy is still to be decided.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, has also steeled the rule book for the 2021 elections for the party and the national leadership will choose the candidates in the main cities, Lisbon and Porto especially, the party should run alone and only in specific races with other parties, mayor who can run for another term can present their candidate if they want, and the candidates with judicial problems could be removed by the national leadership.

The PS is also staring to consider some candidates. In Cascais, a PSD stronghold, the PS is considering running former Health minister Adalberto Campos Fernandes and in Viseu city, the PS has already chosen their candidate and João Azevedo will lead the PS list in this also PSD stronghold. In Castelo Branco, a PS stronghold, the PS is having problems as the current mayor is in danger of being thrown out of office due to corruption charges and some in the party say that the situation is very bad and that the national leadership should lead the process of choosing a candidate.

https://twitter.com/SolOnline/status/1279482886484373504

PS launches Ex-Minister of Health in Cascais

In Madeira, PSD and CDS are discussing possible coalitions in the main cities, particularly in Funchal. This would be the first time the PSD-Madeira runs in a coalition, but, for now, it's only a discussion. In Oeiras, mayor Isaltino Morais is becoming closer with the PSD and some in the party are considering supporting or Isaltino Morais leading the PSD lists. Mr Isaltino was expelled from the party in 2005, due to corruption charges and spent some years in jail until he was released from jail and won, again, the 2017 elections in Oeiras in a landslide.

https://twitter.com/etcetaljorna/status/1273538550613540865

PSD wants reconciliation with Isaltino Morais

So, a lot to happen in the next few months in the local level.

[Mike88]

Azores 2020 regional election: Parliament approves early voting for the regional elections.

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1280602936658341889

Parliament: AR approves early vote and mobility for the Azores regional elections

Parliament has approved early voting for the Azores regional elections, scheduled for early/mid October this year. The proposal was presented the Azores regional parliament and passed with the votes of PS, PSD and BE. CDU, CDS and IL abstained in the vote.

The date of the elections is still to be decided, but a date is expected by early August.

[Mike88]

Minister of Infrastructures, Pedro Nuno Santos, says he will not vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1281154877792620545

Pedro Nuno Santos says he will vote for PCP or BE presidential candidates if PS doesn't present one - RTP Notícias

During an interview to RTP News, Pedro Nuno Santos, Minister of Infrastructures, said he wanted the PS to have its own presidential candidate to the 2021 elections, but refused to vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, saying he will never support the candidate of the right. He added that he has nothing against Marcelo, but that he's a Socialist and if the PS doesn't present a candidate from its area, he will vote in either the PCP or BE candidate.

Earlier this May, António Costa basically endorsed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's reelection which signaled a future support of the PS for the President's reelection bid. Nonetheless, Carlos César, PS' chairman, also made an interview to Público newspaper and talked directly to Pedro Nuno Santos.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1281144153993293825

Carlos César warns Costa's successors: they will have to wait seated

In the interview, Mr César guaranteed that António Costa will go on and on and that he sees Costa winning a 3rd term as PM. asked about the 2 possible successors of Costa, Pedro Nuno Santos and Fernando Medina, he said that they will have to wait a long time and advise them to wait seated.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for the 2021 Presidential elections:

Vote share:

65% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes
  7% André Ventura
  4% Marisa Matias
  2% Adolfo Mesquita Nunes
  1% Jerónimo de Sousa
  8% Others/Undecided

Some crosstabs data by age and party:

50-64 years old:

50% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
26% Ana Gomes
11% André Ventura

18-24 years old:

73% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  8% Marisa Matias

PSD

82% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

PS

67% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
23% Ana Gomes

BE

56% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes

CDU

52% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes

Poll conducted between 7 and 8 July 2020.

[Mike88]

Parliament strucks down PSD proposals to change some Parliamentary procedures:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1281592377883406336

Parliament "strucks down" PSD proposals on how AR works

The PSD saw their proposals to change some rules on how Parliament works rejected by PS, BE, CDU, CDS and IL. Only CHEGA supported the PSD policies. The Social Democrats proposed two main changes: the end of the transparency committee and the creation of a new one without MPs to analyze and rule on MPs conflict of interests and others, and the inclusion of, also, non MPs in Parliamentary committees, mainly independents.

Parties trashed the PSD proposals accusing them of defending populist ideas, which angered PSD leader Rui Rio. Speaking to reporters, Rio accused particularly the PS MP Jorge Lacão, who attacked the PSD proposals, of being the reason reform is needed as Mr Lacão "is in Parliament since the 80's and is basically part of the furniture". He added that the corridors of Parliament have to be aired.

[Mike88]

Azores 2020 elections: PS approves lists and renominates Vasco Cordeiro as candidate for the Presidency of the Government.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1282053316768419848

Azores / Elections: PS approves lists and appoints Vasco Cordeiro for president of the Regional Government

The PS-Azores has approved the lists for the October 2020 regional elections last Saturday. They also renominated Vasco Cordeiro as PS candidate for the Presidency. Mr Cordeiro will run for a third, and last, term as President of the Azores Government and will lead the PS list in the main island, São Miguel. The PS will have lists in all 9 islands, plus the compensation constituency. 70% of the candidates on the lists are re-nominations and 50% are independents. The deputy president of the region, Sérgio Ávila, will lead the list in the second most populated island, Terceira, and the speaker of the regional parliament, Ana Luís, will lead the list in Faial island. The PS caucus leader, Francisco César, son of former Azores President and current PS president Carlos César, will be place number 5 in the list of São Miguel islands.

The election date is still to be announced.

[Mike88]

PS and PSD agree to reduce time of intervention of smaller parties in Parliament, infuriating smaller parties:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1283843781540884485

Smaller parties fear being hit by the Central Bloc.

PS and PSD seem to have agreed on a series of changes in Parliamentary procedures to eliminate the biweekly PM Q&A debates and turn it to a monthly one, reduce the time of intervention of smaller parties and the rights of MPs to start their own legislative initiatives. These changes are infuriating the smaller parties in Parliament, BE, PCP, CDS, PAN, PEV, CH and IL, accusing the two main parties of creating a huge setback in Parliamentary procedures in Portugal and that this will reduce Parliament's scrutiny of the government and the PM.

[Mike88]

Financial situation of the main parties: PS and CDS in near bankruptcy, PSD surpasses PCP to become the richest party in the country.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1284063429490176000

PS and CDS-PP in technical bankruptcy. PSD and PCP are the parties with most solid accounts

The Public Accounts and Financing Entity, a bureau of the Constitutional Court, revealed that in 2019, the PS and CDS were in "technical bankruptcy" as both parties had bigger debts than their overall assets, with the PS having a negative balance of 3,8 million euros and CDS a negative balance of 1,3 million euros. On the other hand, PSD surpassed the PCP, until now the party with more assets, and becomes the biggest party in terms of assets and with biggest positive balance. The party led by Rui Rio ended 2019 with 27,9 million euros in assets and positive balance of 19,1 million euros. The PCP presented assets worth 20,7 million euros and a positive balance of 16,7 million euros. The rest of the parties, BE, PAN, CH and IL, also presented good financial numbers and all with a positive balance.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN newspaper and TSF radio:

Government' job approval:

57% Positive
26% Negative
13% Average
  4% Undecided

Opposition' job approval:

37% Positive
33% Negative
21% Average
  9% Undecided

António Costa' job approval:

63% Positive
18% Negative
12% Average
  7% Undecided

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa' job approval:

61% Positive
22% Negative
12% Average
  5% Undecided

Trust in the PM and President:

41% Trust more the President
33% Equal trust
17% Trust more the PM
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 July 2020. Polled 624 voters. MoE of 3.90%

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN newspaper and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

40.4% PS (+0.5)
26.7% PSD (+0.9)
  8.5% BE (+0.5)
  6.0% CDU (+1.1)
  5.2% CHEGA (-0.1)
  2.6% PAN (-1.7)
  2.1% CDS (+0.9)  
  2.1% IL (+0.7)
  0.1% Livre (-0.1)
  6.3% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 July 2020. Polled 624 voters. MoE of 3.90%

[Mike88]

More polling.

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

39.0% PS (-1.0)
23.9% PSD (-0.2)
10.4% BE (+0.6)
  6.2% CHEGA (-0.6)
  6.2% CDU (nc)
  4.8% CDS (+0.7) 
  3.0% PAN (-0.1)
  2.8% IL (+0.9)
  0.4% Livre (-0.4)
  0.2% Others (-1.3)
  3.0% Invalid/Blank (+1.3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.4 António Costa (-0.4)
3.2 Rui Rio (nc)
3.0 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
2.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.2)
2.6 André Silva (-0.3)
2.6 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.2 André Ventura (nc)
1.7 Joacine Katar Moreira (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 July 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.