🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

37.3% PS (-0.1)
27.4% PSD (+0.7)
  8.8% BE (-0.2)
  6.3% CDU (-0.2)
  3.3% CHEGA (+0.8 )
  2.9% CDS (-0.4)
  2.8% PAN (-0.3)
  1.1% IL (nc)
10.1% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Q1: Do you agree with the legalization of Euthanasia?

48% Yes
21% No
31% Undecided

Q2: Do you think the Euthanasia issue should be decided by a referendum?

41% Yes
37% No
22% Undecided

Q3: What should the President do with the Euthanasia bill?

37% Sent it to the Constitutional Court
25% Sign it
20% Veto it
18% Undecided

Poll conducted between 1 and 5 March 2020. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.09%.

[Mike88]

Problems in the government: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warns that the current legislature cannot be "walking dead" as Costa is pressured to talk with the left.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1236240161056395264

With "blockades" in Parliament and without scope for agreements with the PSD, Costa is under pressure for new understandings with the left:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, started this discussion when in a speech, during a conference celebrating the 30th anniversary of Público newspaper, he said that the current legislature cannot have a taste of ending of a cycle and advised the government to find agreements. Early elections will not be approved by him, he also said. This speech comes after some months of tensions between the PS and opposition parties in Parliament. The PS refused, after the 2019 elections, any agreements with the left and bet on occasional agreements between left and right. But, the PSD isn't helping the government in almost anything and has aligned with the left, several times until now, to embarrass the government. This leaves the PS in a very weak and uncomfortable position, as a political crisis that could led to a snap election, wouldn't be approved by the President.

Costa is now being pressured to forge some kind of agreements with the left, with some ministers and PS members asking for bridges between the left parties. But, is it too late? The current tensions between PS and BE make a possible agreement quite difficult. And PCP? Well, the Communists seem to be the preferred partner for Costa, but that could hurt the party's standing in the polls.

Also, today, the media is confirming the most poorly kept secret in recent Portuguese politics:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1236255544807010304

Mário Centeno leaves the Government at the beginning of the summer.

Mário Centeno, current Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman, is expected to leave the government in the summer, when his term in the Eurogroup ends. He's expected to be appointed as the new Governor of the Bank of Portugal, succeeding Carlos Costa, in office since 2010. But, this appointment is being criticized as some accuse that this appointment creates several cases of conflicts of interest. The PSD has a vague position on this appointment, but history doesn't favour them as in the 90's, during Cavaco Silva governments, there was a case of a finance minister exiting the government to go directly to the post of governor of the bank of Portugal. The government, however, doesn't need the support of the opposition to appoint a new governor.

This exit, will force Costa to reshuffle the government, but how this Centeno exit could affect the government and the PS is still to be seen.

[Mike88]

War of words, this weekend, between Costa and Rio:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1236424963793522688

Video: António Costa: "Rui Rio has no thought whatsoever about any fundamental issue of Portuguese society"

Público newspaper published an interview with PM António Costa, where he had very harsh words for PSD leader Rui Rio. Costa accused Rio of not having any profund thought about any matter affecting Portuguese society and added that Rio's latest decisions are a "guerrilla strategy".

Rio responded to Costa's attacks saying he wouldn't respond in order to not "escalate the violent verbal attacks that can degrade democratic dialogue".

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1236674545131626497

Contrary to what I've been asked, I don't think I should answer. Entering this free escalation of verbal violence is degrading the democratic dialogue and hampering the country's governance. Above our impulses must be the national interest. It's what I think!

[Mike88]

The PM met, yesterday, with all party leaders to discuss the Coronovirus crisis:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1238241655708319745

Costa: "This is a fight for our survival"

PM António Costa met with all party leaders to discuss the measures to prevent the coronovirus. Rui Rio, PSD leader, advised the government to take more harsh measures to prevent the spread of the virus, like declaring the state of emergency and more measures to limit or ban the circulation of people. BE advised the government for mote restrictive measures and advised the PM to ask for help in the private health sector. CDS and CDU also support more restrictive measures, while André Ventura, CHEGA leader, thinks the measures proposed by the government are weak, will not work and advised the PM to close the borders.

After the meetings with all party leaders, Costa announced to the country the measures to prevent the spread of the virus.

[Mike88]

In the local level, many city halls are already going further than the government and are closing all public buildings, parks and beaches, canceling events and urging inhabitants to stay home and go out only for necessary reasons.

In Porto city, Mayor Rui Moreira is talking to private labs to create a public testing system, but it will only go ahead if the Health authorities approve it, as the goal is to stop people from going to public hospitals. The mayor is also in talks with Macau and Shenzhen in order to import many ventilators, adding that St. John Hospital is also involved in the talks.

Parliament has also decided not to close its doors, but parliamentary activity will be reduced to a minimum. This decision will be reevaluated next Wednesday.

[Mike88]

Coronavirus crisis: Regional governments of Madeira and Azores will force quarantine for anyone who enters the islands by midnight today:

There are still no confirmed cases in Madeira and Azores islands, but the regional governments are imposing measures to prevent cases. The Madeira and Azores governments have decided to put in quarantine anyone who enters in the islands. Since mid this week, staff checking temperatures in Madeira airport were put into place. The Madeira government has also suppressed many flights from Lisbon and other hot spots of the virus and will exempt taxes on water and electricity for the next two weeks.

The President of Madeira government, Miguel Albuquerque (PSD), said he took these harsh measures as the central government in Lisbon wasn't responding to his pleas.

[Mike88]

Coronavirus crisis: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will meet with the Council of State, next Wednesday, to decide the state of emergency.

However, PSD leader, Rui Rio, went to twitter to advise the call of the state of emergency and the closure of all borders with Spain:
https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1239246609902419969

The Government continues to have our full support, and I even incentive, to escalate measures to combat Covid-19, including the declaration of a state of emergency; the closing of the borders with Spain seems to me to be very urgent. Prevention is better than cure.

[Mike88]

Coronavirus crisis: Prime Minister and President of the Republic disagree on the declaration of State of Emergency.

https://twitter.com/joaogoliveira/status/1239872334439288832

António Costa and Marcelo disagree on declaration of state of emergency. Marcelo wanted to have already declared a state of emergency, but the Prime Minister preferred to use this resource later, without calling into question the suspension of rights, freedoms and guarantees.

The President of the Republic and the Prime Minister have been in clear disagreement regarding the use of the declaration of a state of emergency, Público newspaper knows. The President of the Republic has defended the idea that this step should be taken since, at least, last Thursday, but the Prime Minister has resisted.

[Mike88]

State of Emergency approved: President, PM and Parliament all approve it.

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1240341227528237056

Covid-19: Parliament approves State of Emergency in plenary.

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has approved the State of Emergency after meeting with the Council of State. Although some on the left don't see it with good eyes, even Costa himself, the PM also approved as did Parliament with the votes of PS, PSD, CDS, BE, PAN and CHEGA. PCP, IL and Joacine Katar Moreira abstained.

The finance minister, Mário Centeno, also announced a 9,2 billion euros package for the economy, with 3 billion going to businesses.

[Mike88]

Marktest poll on the State of Emergency:

Q1: Do you agree with the declaration of a State of Emergency made by the President?

90.0% Yes
  6.3% No
  3.7% Undecided

Q2: Timing of the decision?

52.1% It should have been sooner
42.0% It was at the right time
  5.9% It should had been postponed for later

Q3: Impact of the State of Emergency in your workplace?

32.9% No impact - Will continue to work in my normal workplace
29.6% No impact - Had already started telework
14.4% Big impact - Will stay home and not work
12.1% Big impact - Will start telework
11.0% None of the above

Q4: How long will Portugal face the Coronavirus crisis and its limitations?

34.3% 1 to 2 months
30.8% 2 to 3 months
25.6% More than 3 months
  5.3% 2 to 4 weeks
  0.6% 2 weeks
  3.4% Undecided

Q5: What do you fear more about this crisis?

35.3% The mortality rate
20.9% The colapse of the Portuguese economy
19.5% The colapse of the NHS
10.1% The colapse of the Worldwide economy
  9.1% Shortage of food
  3.6% Unemployment
  1.4% Being closed at home

Poll conducted between 18 and 19 March 2020. Polled 501 voters.

[Mike88]

Coronavirus crisis and fallout: Mário Centeno says he will not leave the government until the crisis is over.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1242087623511900160

Politics - Mário Centeno stays in the Government as long as crisis lasts

It was no secret, until a few weeks ago, that Mário Centeno, current Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman, was on his way out of the government and possible going for the post of Governor of the Bank of Portugal. But the Coronavirus crisis and the huge impact it could have in the Portuguese economy may have delayed his departure. In a rare move, the President of the Republic asked for a meeting with Mário Centeno in order, according to the media, to asking to not leave the government this year. After, the meeting Centeno said he was not leaving the government, as long as the crisis lasts, and added the the President signed the 2020 budget. However, he warned that the a rectified budget will be needed as the economy is expected to drop massively this year.

[Mike88]

António Costa interview to TVI: "There are no lifebuoys" to help the economy in this "tsunami". We need a "Marshall or von der Leyen plan".

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1242216000143142913

António Costa: "Losing a third of wages is dramatic for most Portuguese"

PM António Costa gave an TV interview to TVI in which he announced several measures to prevent the spread of the virus in Portugal, fiscal/economic policies and also a plea for a new Marshal plan for Europe, adding that there will be big and long discussions between all EU countries. Costa announced that in the next few days, 280,000 new tests will be available, 80,000 by the end of the week. He also announced that the State will pay the wages of workers in layoff situation, in order to prevent mass sacking of workers and that it will 1 billion euros per month. He also said that, according to the predictions of the Health services, the situation in Portugal will not be out of control and that hospital will have everything they need, including 500 new ventilators for hospitals. Costa also commented on the current State of Emergency and said that, only today, 9 people were arrested for violating the law and he says that more restrictive measures could be put into practice if people don't respect the State of Emergency.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM/CMTV:

Vote share %:

31.4% PS (+0.3)
21.9% PSD (-1.9)
14.5% BE (+1.3)
  8.6% CHEGA (+1.7)
  6.1% CDU (-0.2)
  5.9% PAN (+0.5)
  3.6% CDS (+0.1)
  2.3% IL (-0.2)
  0.2% Livre (-0.6)
  5.5% Others/Invalid (-0.6)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.7 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.2)
3.3 António Costa (+0.3)
3.1 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
3.0 Rui Rio (+0.1)
2.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.9 André Silva (+0.2)
2.8 Francisco Rodrigues do Santos (+0.2)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.4 André Ventura (-0.2)
1.9 Joacine Katar Moreira  (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 13 and 19 March 2020. Polled 611 votes. MoE of 4.0%

Intercampus polls are becoming weirder and weirder...

[Mike88]

Coronavirus crisis and politics: PSD leader, Rui Rio, leaves the debate in Parliament in protest against his own caucus.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1242537516089081864

Parliament: Rio abandoned debate for having too many deputies on its bench

The PSD wants Parliament to be more low profile and wants debates plenaries to be suspended and that Parliament should work like they do in the summer, due to the Coronavirus. The Speaker and PS, BE and CDU were against and in today's PMs Q&A debate, the PSD, once again, criticized the fact that there was a debate, and the Speaker said that Parliament cannot close and said that the PSD had more MPs in the room than necessary. In fact, Rio sent an email to all PSD MPs asking to be just 18 in the debate, naming the ones that should be there. Some, stayed in their seats, and Rio, clearly upset, said to the Speaker that he cannot kick off PSD MPs from the room, but he would be an example and leave the debate.

Also, new poll from ISCTE/GfK from Expresso and SIC TV on the Coronavirus response:

Q: Who do you trust more in the response of the crisis?

79% Police forces
77% Directorate-General of Health
75% Prime Minister
74% President of the Republic
68% Mayors
66% Health minister
62% Parliament

Q: About the State of Emergency, what of the phrases to you support more?

51% It was necessary and the measures were adequate
44% It was necessary but new restrictive measures are needed
  3% No need for the State of Emergency
  1% Undecided

Q: Do you know anyone infected with the virus?

95% No
  5% Yes

Q: Overall, how are you dealing with the restrictions

44% Somewhat easily
31% Somewhat difficult
16% Very easy
  8% Very difficult
  1% Undecided

Q: How long do you think we'll have to live with these restrictions?

45% Until the summer
18% Until the end of April
17% Until the end of the summer
  4% In more than a year
15% Undecided

Poll conducted between 20 and 22 March 2020. Polled 625 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Euro summit fallout: Costa calls Dutch finance minister words "disgusting" as EU leaders fail to agree on the "coronabonds":

https://twitter.com/agimediata/status/1243525743046463490

"Disgusting." What made António Costa so angry at the Netherlands? - TSF

After the meeting with all EU leaders, PM António Costa talked to the press and was quite frustrated by the results of the meeting. But when a reporter asked him to comment on the words of the Dutch finance minister that Spain should be investigated for not having enough capacity of response, Costa didn't hold back:

This is a speech that is disgusting within the framework of the European Union. The expression is really this: disgusting. No one is available to listen to finance ministers like the ones we have heard in 2008, 2009, 2010 and consecutive years.

(...)

It wasn't Spain that created the virus, the virus hit us all equally, "saying that" the answer is an absolute unconsciousness. It is an absolute stinginess that completely undermines the European Union's base.

It was unbearable to work with Mr. Dijsselbloem, but apparently there are countries that insist on changing names, but keeping people with the same profile

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF on the popularity of political leaders:

PM António Costa' job approval:

60% Approve (+7)
32% Disapprove (-8 )
  8% Undecided (+1)

Government' job approval:

47% Average (+5)
33% Approve (+3)
20% Disapprove (-8 )

Opposition' job approval:

48% Average (+18 )
35% Disapprove (-26)
17% Approve (+8 )

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa' job approval:

85% Approve (-2)
15% Disapprove (+2)

Poll conducted between 13 and 21 March 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF:

Vote share %:

41.7% PS (+5.4)
25.2% PSD (-2.6)
  8.6% BE (-0.9)
  8.1% CHEGA (+6.8 )
  5.4% CDU (-0.9)
  3.1% PAN (-0.2)
  2.9% CDS(-0.4)
  2.0% IL (+0.7)
  3.1% Others/Invalid (-6.9)

Poll conducted between 13 and 21 March 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

It seems like the US is an outlier when it comes to country leaders seeing their approval ratings massively improve in relation to this crisis. And in my opinion, Costa deserves it too, since he's been very responsible and objective in his appearances whenever he's addressing the nation. I'm glad most of our party leaders are competent politicians.

Indeed, Costa has been a pleasent surprise during this crisis. He's calm, tough and assertive. It's a side of him we've never seen before as he had a history of panicking when crisis emerged, like in the wildfires f.e.. He's position against the Dutch minister is also a big boost to his popularity and many people who don't like him at all in Portugal, are by his side on this one.

Now, the following economic crisis will be another huge challenge for Costa. Trying to manage the expectations of a country that was highly dependent on services that vanished overnight, will not be easy. Some newspapers and pundits are suggesting that Costa will be the "Portuguese Churchill" meaning he will win the war against the virus, but will not be the one chosen to reconstruct the economy, meaning that Rio will the "Portuguese Attlee". I'm a bit skeptical about this scenario, but who knows at this point.

[Mike88]

Coronavirus crisis: President of the Republic extends the State of Emergency for 2 more weeks and sends the decree for Parliamentary approval.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1245427131028561922

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa extends suspension of the right to strike and requisition of workers by the State.

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has extended the State of Emergency for two more weeks and added some more details compared with the previous decree, 2 weeks ago. The Presidential decree now goes for Parliamentary approval. The new decree has some new details:

- Suspension of the right to strike for essential goods;
- Changes of the school calender;
- The Government can stop sacking of workers;
- Prices could be controlled to prevent hoarding and speculation;

[Mike88]

Yes, if it could pressure Germany and the Netherlands to accept the eurobonds, that would be great.

At least, Costa's strong remarks embarrassed the Dutch government and they retracted and apologized for their remarks. On the eurobonds, I'm not that sure they will be a reality. We'll see.

Also, Costa did another interview this week, this time to Renascença Radio, where he touch on a very important issue:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1246022286638907393

António Costa. "Portugal will have to return to producing what it used to import from China"

Decreasing dependence on imports from China is the first great economic lesson that António Costa draws from the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. In an interview with Renascença, the Prime Minister underlines that this is the moment of "Europe, and Portugal has to position itself for this, to produce inland much of what it used to import from China".

"The biggest reflection we have to make is that today we cannot have economic chains as extensive and as dependent on one country as China. This is the biggest lesson", he assumes.

[Mike88]

Update: Political leaders perceptions on Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.):

Week 29 March-3 April 2020.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic:

38% Negative
21% Positive
41% Neutral

António Costa, PS leader and Prime Minister:

65% Positive
  6% Negative
29% Neutral

Rui Rio, PSD leader:

71% Positive
13% Negative
16% Neutral

Analysis conducted by ISCTE-IUL, University Institute of Lisbon.

[Mike88]

Why are the President's ratings (still) negative?

This is data from social media posts, twitter, facebook where people comment, share and talk positively or negatively about these 3 political leaders. The official polling, gives Marcelo a 70/80% plus approval rating. However, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has had some negative press in the last few weeks. As Costa basically concentrated all the decision making on the crisis and has appeared a lot on TV and radio to calm the population and being quite pragmatic and serene, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa made some things that didn't go well in the media, and social media, like continuing to shake hands and talk to people, and then going into isolation, a few weeks ago, and showing up in his balcony to talk to reporters in front of his house, or the Skype interview he did from his home, which was weird. During this time, like I said above, Costa was rallying the country and making decisions to prevent the spread of the virus, and Marcelo was put in the sidelines a bit.

He's still very popular, however, his actions weren't very well perceived, especially on social media.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper:

Vote share %:

37.5% PS (+0.2)
27.2% PSD (-0.2)
  9.0% BE (+0.2)
  6.0% CDU (-0.3)
  3.6% CHEGA (+0.3)
  2.8% CDS(-0.1) 
  2.4% PAN (-0.4)
  1.2% IL (+0.1)
10.3% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 29 March and 2 April 2020. Polled 1,008 voters. MoE of 3.09%.

[Mike88]

Crisis in CHEGA: André Ventura resigns from the leadership and calls a leadership contest to clarify everything, the media is reporting.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1246433269845032962

André Ventura resigns from CHEGA' leadership and calls for elections in September to "clarify".

André Ventura will present his resignation of leader of the CHEGA party and has already revealed that intention to those closest to him in the party structure, Observador found out. The official communication to the party members should be made next week. The MP also said that he will call elections for the leadership in September.

According to a CHEGA's source, close to André Ventura, the criticisms - which had already started to be heard in recent months - were aggravated by the MP's decision to choose to abstain from voting on the presidential decree for the renewal of the state of emergency. This after having voted in favor of this exceptionality regime on 18 March.

(...)

Observador knows that since Thursday "messages and phone calls have rained with criticisms and accusations", which would have precipitated the decision to knock on André Ventura's door. In September, but still with no date set, the National Council will meet and "clarify what leadership CHEGA wants".

It's not the first time that news of a bad internal environment within the CHEGA party appears. In a message via WhatsApp that Sábado magazine had access to, sent to the district offices on February 24, André Ventura said: "I'm tired of this. I walk around the country explaining to people that we are different, sometimes with hours of travel and minutes of sleep, and what I hear, miles away, is: have you seen what is written on this page of CHEGA? And on this page of this leader? If this atmosphere remains in the party, I will resign before the summer. I'm not for this! ”

[Mike88]

Update on the CHEGA internal crisis: Ventura has confirmed he resigned but will run again and defies his opponents within the party to run against him.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1246528140652003330

Politics - "I'm fed up and tired": André Ventura reveals why he resigned from CHEGA's leadership

In a video posted on his Facebook page, during Saturday' evening, André Ventura confirmed he was resigning accusing many within the party of boycotting his leadership and dared his internal "enemies" to run against him. He added he's fed up and tired with these situations and wants to clarify the situation by calling a leadership contest.